In the marketing field, understanding consumer heterogeneity, which is the internal or psychological difference among consumers that cannot be captured by behavioral logs, has long been a critical challenge. However, a number of consumers today usually post their evaluation on the specific product on the online platform, which can be the valuable source of such unobservable differences among consumers. Several previous studies have shown the validity of the analysis on text modality, but on the other hand, such analyses may not necessarily demonstrate sufficient predictive accuracy for text alone, as they may not include information readily available from cross-sectional data, such as consumer profile data. In addition, recent advances in machine learning techniques, such as large-scale language models (LLMs) and multimodal learning have made it possible to deal with the various kind of dataset simultaneously, including textual data and the traditional cross-sectional data, and the joint representations can be effectively obtained from multiple modalities. Therefore, this study constructs a product evaluation model that takes into account consumer heterogeneity by multimodal learning of online product reviews and consumer profile information. We also compare multiple models using different modalities or hyper-parameters to demonstrate the robustness of multimodal learning in marketing analysis.
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In financial modeling problems, non-Gaussian tails exist widely in many circumstances. Among them, the accurate estimation of risk-neutral distribution (RND) from option prices is of great importance for researchers and practitioners. A precise RND can provide valuable information regarding the market's expectations, and can further help empirical asset pricing studies. This paper presents a parsimonious parametric approach to extract RNDs of underlying asset returns by using a generative machine learning model. The model incorporates the asymmetric heavy tails property of returns with a clever design. To calibrate the model, we design a Monte Carlo algorithm that has good capability with the assistance of modern machine learning computing tools. Numerically, the model fits Heston option prices well and captures the main shapes of implied volatility curves. Empirically, using S\&P 500 index option prices, we demonstrate that the model outperforms some popular parametric density methods under mean absolute error. Furthermore, the skewness and kurtosis of RNDs extracted by our model are consistent with intuitive expectations. More generally, the proposed methodology is widely applicable in data fitting and probabilistic forecasting.
Despite the importance of trust in human-AI interactions, researchers must adopt questionnaires from other disciplines that lack validation in the AI context. Motivated by the need for reliable and valid measures, we investigated the psychometric quality of two trust questionnaires, the Trust between People and Automation scale (TPA) by Jian et al. (2000) and the Trust Scale for the AI Context (TAI) by Hoffman et al. (2023). In a pre-registered online experiment (N = 1485), participants observed interactions with trustworthy and untrustworthy AI (autonomous vehicle and chatbot). Results support the psychometric quality of the TAI while revealing opportunities to improve the TPA, which we outline in our recommendations for using the two questionnaires. Furthermore, our findings provide additional empirical evidence of trust and distrust as two distinct constructs that may coexist independently. Building on our findings, we highlight the opportunities and added value of measuring both trust and distrust in human-AI research and advocate for further work on both constructs.
Providing personalized recommendations for insurance products is particularly challenging due to the intrinsic and distinctive features of the insurance domain. First, unlike more traditional domains like retail, movie etc., a large amount of user feedback is not available and the item catalog is smaller. Second, due to the higher complexity of products, the majority of users still prefer to complete their purchases over the phone instead of online. We present different recommender models to address such data scarcity in the insurance domain. We use recurrent neural networks with 3 different types of loss functions and architectures (cross-entropy, censored Weibull, attention). Our models cope with data scarcity by learning from multiple sessions and different types of user actions. Moreover, differently from previous session-based models, our models learn to predict a target action that does not happen within the session. Our models outperform state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world insurance dataset, with ca. 44K users, 16 items, 54K purchases and 117K sessions. Moreover, combining our models with demographic data boosts the performance. Analysis shows that considering multiple sessions and several types of actions are both beneficial for the models, and that our models are not unfair with respect to age, gender and income.
Due to its high sample complexity, simulation is, as of today, critical for the successful application of reinforcement learning. Many real-world problems, however, exhibit overly complex dynamics, which makes their full-scale simulation computationally slow. In this paper, we show how to decompose large networked systems of many agents into multiple local components such that we can build separate simulators that run independently and in parallel. To monitor the influence that the different local components exert on one another, each of these simulators is equipped with a learned model that is periodically trained on real trajectories. Our empirical results reveal that distributing the simulation among different processes not only makes it possible to train large multi-agent systems in just a few hours but also helps mitigate the negative effects of simultaneous learning.
Musculoskeletal diseases and cognitive impairments in patients lead to difficulties in movement as well as negative effects on their psychological health. Clinical gait analysis, a vital tool for early diagnosis and treatment, traditionally relies on expensive optical motion capture systems. Recent advances in computer vision and deep learning have opened the door to more accessible and cost-effective alternatives. This paper introduces a novel spatio-temporal Transformer network to estimate critical gait parameters from RGB videos captured by a single-view camera. Empirical evaluations on a public dataset of cerebral palsy patients indicate that the proposed framework surpasses current state-of-the-art approaches and show significant improvements in predicting general gait parameters (including Walking Speed, Gait Deviation Index - GDI, and Knee Flexion Angle at Maximum Extension), while utilizing fewer parameters and alleviating the need for manual feature extraction.
In fair machine learning, one source of performance disparities between groups is over-fitting to groups with relatively few training samples. We derive group-specific bounds on the generalization error of welfare-centric fair machine learning that benefit from the larger sample size of the majority group. We do this by considering group-specific Rademacher averages over a restricted hypothesis class, which contains the family of models likely to perform well with respect to a fair learning objective (e.g., a power-mean). Our simulations demonstrate these bounds improve over a naive method, as expected by theory, with particularly significant improvement for smaller group sizes.
Human intelligence thrives on the concept of cognitive synergy, where collaboration and information integration among different cognitive processes yield superior outcomes compared to individual cognitive processes in isolation. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance as general task-solving agents, they still struggle with tasks that require intensive domain knowledge and complex reasoning. In this work, we propose Solo Performance Prompting (SPP), which transforms a single LLM into a cognitive synergist by engaging in multi-turn self-collaboration with multiple personas. A cognitive synergist refers to an intelligent agent that collaborates with multiple minds, combining their individual strengths and knowledge, to enhance problem-solving and overall performance in complex tasks. By dynamically identifying and simulating different personas based on task inputs, SPP unleashes the potential of cognitive synergy in LLMs. We have discovered that assigning multiple, fine-grained personas in LLMs elicits better problem-solving abilities compared to using a single or fixed number of personas. We evaluate SPP on three challenging tasks: Trivia Creative Writing, Codenames Collaborative, and Logic Grid Puzzle, encompassing both knowledge-intensive and reasoning-intensive types. Unlike previous works, such as Chain-of-Thought, that solely enhance the reasoning abilities in LLMs, SPP effectively elicits internal knowledge acquisition abilities, reduces hallucination, and maintains strong reasoning capabilities. Code, data, and prompts can be found at: //github.com/MikeWangWZHL/Solo-Performance-Prompting.git.
In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.
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