A novel method is proposed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of moderate dimensional time series. This non-linear test statistic has a number of useful properties. Most importantly, it is independent of the underlying structure of the covariance matrix. We discuss how results from Random Matrix Theory, can be used to study the behaviour of our test statistic in a moderate dimensional setting (i.e. the number of variables is comparable to the length of the data). In particular, we demonstrate that the test statistic converges point wise to a normal distribution under the null hypothesis. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a range of simulated datasets and find that it outperforms a range of alternative recently proposed methods. Finally, we use our approach to study changes in the amount of water on the surface of a plot of soil which feeds into model development for degradation of surface piping.
The matrix normal model, the family of Gaussian matrix-variate distributions whose covariance matrix is the Kronecker product of two lower dimensional factors, is frequently used to model matrix-variate data. The tensor normal model generalizes this family to Kronecker products of three or more factors. We study the estimation of the Kronecker factors of the covariance matrix in the matrix and tensor models. We show nonasymptotic bounds for the error achieved by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in several natural metrics. In contrast to existing bounds, our results do not rely on the factors being well-conditioned or sparse. For the matrix normal model, all our bounds are minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors, and for the tensor normal model our bound for the largest factor and overall covariance matrix are minimax optimal up to constant factors provided there are enough samples for any estimator to obtain constant Frobenius error. In the same regimes as our sample complexity bounds, we show that an iterative procedure to compute the MLE known as the flip-flop algorithm converges linearly with high probability. Our main tool is geodesic strong convexity in the geometry on positive-definite matrices induced by the Fisher information metric. This strong convexity is determined by the expansion of certain random quantum channels. We also provide numerical evidence that combining the flip-flop algorithm with a simple shrinkage estimator can improve performance in the undersampled regime.
We introduce a kernel estimator, to the tail index of a right-censored Pareto-type distribution, that generalizes Worms's one (Worms and Worms, 2014)in terms of weight coefficients. Under some regularity conditions, the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established. In the framework of the second-order condition, we derive an asymptotically bias-reduced version to the new estimator. Through a simulation study, we conclude that one of the main features of the proposed kernel estimator is its smoothness contrary to Worms's one, which behaves, rather erratically, as a function of the number of largest extreme values. As expected, the bias significantly decreases compared to that of the non-smoothed estimator with however a slight increase in the mean squared error.
This paper studies the $\tau$-coherence of a (n x p)-observation matrix in a Gaussian framework. The $\tau$-coherence is defined as the largest magnitude outside a diagonal bandwith of size $\tau$ of the empirical correlation coefficients associated to our observations. Using the Chen-Stein method we derive the limiting law of the normalized coherence and show the convergence towards a Gumbel distribution. We generalize here the results of Cai and Jiang [CJ11a]. We assume that the covariance matrix of the model is bandwise. Moreover, we provide numerical considerations highlighting issues from the high dimension hypotheses. We numerically illustrate the asymptotic behaviour of the coherence with Monte-Carlo experiment using a HPC splitting strategy for high dimensional correlation matrices.
We provide explicit bounds on the number of sample points required to estimate tangent spaces and intrinsic dimensions of (smooth, compact) Euclidean submanifolds via local principal component analysis. Our approach directly estimates covariance matrices locally, which simultaneously allows estimating both the tangent spaces and the intrinsic dimension of a manifold. The key arguments involve a matrix concentration inequality, a Wasserstein bound for flattening a manifold, and a Lipschitz relation for the covariance matrix with respect to the Wasserstein distance.
Researchers have been facing a difficult problem that data generation mechanisms could be influenced by internal or external factors leading to the training and test data with quite different distributions, consequently traditional classification or regression from the training set is unable to achieve satisfying results on test data. In this paper, we address this nontrivial domain generalization problem by finding a central subspace in which domain-based covariance is minimized while the functional relationship is simultaneously maximally preserved. We propose a novel variance measurement for multiple domains so as to minimize the difference between conditional distributions across domains with solid theoretical demonstration and supports, meanwhile, the algorithm preserves the functional relationship via maximizing the variance of conditional expectations given output. Furthermore, we also provide a fast implementation that requires much less computation and smaller memory for large-scale matrix operations, suitable for not only domain generalization but also other kernel-based eigenvalue decompositions. To show the practicality of the proposed method, we compare our methods against some well-known dimension reduction and domain generalization techniques on both synthetic data and real-world applications. We show that for small-scale datasets, we are able to achieve better quantitative results indicating better generalization performance over unseen test datasets. For large-scale problems, the proposed fast implementation maintains the quantitative performance but at a substantially lower computational cost.
The Schr\"odinger bridge problem (SBP) finds the most likely stochastic evolution between two probability distributions given a prior stochastic evolution. As well as applications in the natural sciences, problems of this kind have important applications in machine learning such as dataset alignment and hypothesis testing. Whilst the theory behind this problem is relatively mature, scalable numerical recipes to estimate the Schr\"odinger bridge remain an active area of research. We prove an equivalence between the SBP and maximum likelihood estimation enabling direct application of successful machine learning techniques. We propose a numerical procedure to estimate SBPs using Gaussian process and demonstrate the practical usage of our approach in numerical simulations and experiments.
In this letter, we study the joint device activity and delay detection problem in asynchronous massive machine-type communications (mMTC), where all active devices asynchronously transmit their preassigned preamble sequences to the base station (BS) for device identification and delay detection. We first formulate this joint detection problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem, which depends on the received signal only through its sample covariance, and then propose efficient coordinate descent type of algorithms to solve the formulated problem. Our proposed covariance-based approach is sharply different from the existing compressed sensing (CS) approach for the same problem. Numerical results show that our proposed covariance-based approach significantly outperforms the CS approach in terms of the detection performance since our proposed approach can make better use of the BS antennas than the CS approach.
We investigate a general matrix factorization for deviance-based losses, extending the ubiquitous singular value decomposition beyond squared error loss. While similar approaches have been explored before, here we propose an efficient algorithm that is flexible enough to allow for structural zeros and entry weights. Moreover, we provide theoretical support for these decompositions by (i) showing strong consistency under a generalized linear model setup, (ii) checking the adequacy of a chosen exponential family via a generalized Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and (iii) determining the rank of the decomposition via a maximum eigenvalue gap method. To further support our findings, we conduct simulation studies to assess robustness to decomposition assumptions and extensive case studies using benchmark datasets from image face recognition, natural language processing, network analysis, and biomedical studies. Our theoretical and empirical results indicate that the proposed decomposition is more flexible, general, and can provide improved performance when compared to traditional methods.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
This paper describes a suite of algorithms for constructing low-rank approximations of an input matrix from a random linear image of the matrix, called a sketch. These methods can preserve structural properties of the input matrix, such as positive-semidefiniteness, and they can produce approximations with a user-specified rank. The algorithms are simple, accurate, numerically stable, and provably correct. Moreover, each method is accompanied by an informative error bound that allows users to select parameters a priori to achieve a given approximation quality. These claims are supported by numerical experiments with real and synthetic data.