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This paper has the goal of evaluating how changes in mobility has affected the infection spread of Covid-19 throughout the 2020-2021 years. However, identifying a "clean" causal relation is not an easy task due to a high number of non-observable (behavioral) effects. We suggest the usage of Google Trends and News-based indexes as controls for some of these behavioral effects and we find that a 1\% increase in residential mobility (i.e. a reduction in overall mobility) have significant impacts for reducing both Covid-19 cases (at least 3.02\% on a one-month horizon) and deaths (at least 2.43\% at the two-weeks horizon) over the 2020-2021 sample. We also evaluate the effects of mobility on Covid-19 spread on the restricted sample (only 2020) where vaccines were not available. The results of diminishing mobility over cases and deaths on the restricted sample are still observable (with similar magnitudes in terms of residential mobility) and cumulative higher, as the effects of restricting workplace mobility turns to be also significant: a 1\% decrease in workplace mobility diminishes cases around 1\% and deaths around 2\%.

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CASES:International Conference on Compilers, Architectures, and Synthesis for Embedded Systems。 Explanation:嵌(qian)入式系統編譯器、體系結(jie)構和(he)綜合國際會議。 Publisher:ACM。 SIT:

Object-oriented programming (OOP) is one of the most popular paradigms used for building software systems. However, despite its industrial and academic popularity, OOP is still missing a formal apparatus similar to lambda-calculus, which functional programming is based on. There were a number of attempts to formalize OOP, but none of them managed to cover all the features available in modern OO programming languages, such as C++ or Java. We have made yet another attempt and created phi-calculus. We also created EOLANG (also called EO), an experimental programming language based on phi-calculus.

COVID-19 vaccines have been rolled out in many countries and with them a number of vaccination certificates. For instance, the EU is utilizing a digital certificate in the form of a QR-code that is digitally signed and can be easily validated throughout all EU countries. In this paper, we investigate the current state of the COVID-19 vaccination certificate market in the darkweb with a focus on the EU Digital Green Certificate (DGC). We investigate $17$ marketplaces and $10$ vendor shops, that include vaccination certificates in their listings. Our results suggest that a multitude of sellers in both types of platforms are advertising selling capabilities. According to their claims, it is possible to buy fake vaccination certificates issued in most countries worldwide. We demonstrate some examples of such sellers, including how they advertise their capabilities, and the methods they claim to be using to provide their services. We highlight two particular cases of vendor shops, with one of them showing an elevated degree of professionalism, showcasing forged valid certificates, the validity of which we verify using two different national mobile COVID-19 applications.

This paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets. It focuses on the evolution of the market efficiency, using two efficiency indicators: the Hurst exponent and the memory parameter of a fractional L\'evy-stable motion. The second approach combines, in the same model of dynamic, an alpha-stable distribution and a dependence structure between price returns. We provide a dynamic estimation method for the two efficiency indicators. This method introduces a free parameter, the discount factor, which we select so as to get the best alpha-stable density forecasts for observed price returns. The application to stock indices during the COVID-19 crisis shows a strong loss of efficiency for US indices. On the opposite, Asian and Australian indices seem less affected and the inefficiency of these markets during the COVID-19 crisis is even questionable.

This paper presents SimAEN, an agent-based simulation whose purpose is to assist public health in understanding and controlling AEN. SimAEN models a population of interacting individuals, or 'agents', in which COVID-19 is spreading. These individuals interact with a public health system that includes Automated Exposure Notifiation (AEN) and Manual Contact Tracing (MCT). These interactions influence when individuals enter and leave quarantine, affecting the spread of the simulated disease. Over 70 user-configurable parameters influence the outcome of SimAEN's simulations. These parameters allow the user to tailor SimAEN to a specific public health jurisdiction and to test the effects of various interventions, including different sensitivity settings of AEN.

Let $f$ be analytic on $[0,1]$ with $|f^{(k)}(1/2)|\leq A\alpha^kk!$ for some constant $A$ and $\alpha<2$. We show that the median estimate of $\mu=\int_0^1f(x)\,\mathrm{d}x$ under random linear scrambling with $n=2^m$ points converges at the rate $O(n^{-c\log(n)})$ for any $c< 3\log(2)/\pi^2\approx 0.21$. We also get a super-polynomial convergence rate for the sample median of $2k-1$ random linearly scrambled estimates, when $k=\Omega(m)$. When $f$ has a $p$'th derivative that satisfies a $\lambda$-H\"older condition then the median-of-means has error $O( n^{-(p+\lambda)+\epsilon})$ for any $\epsilon>0$, if $k\to\infty$ as $m\to\infty$.

Since the increasing outspread of COVID-19 in the U.S., with the highest number of confirmed cases and deaths in the world as of September 2020, most states in the country have enforced travel restrictions resulting in sharp reductions in mobility. However, the overall impact and long-term implications of this crisis to travel and mobility remain uncertain. To this end, this study develops an analytical framework that determines and analyzes the most dominant factors impacting human mobility and travel in the U.S. during this pandemic. In particular, the study uses Granger causality to determine the important predictors influencing daily vehicle miles traveled and utilize linear regularization algorithms, including Ridge and LASSO techniques, to model and predict mobility. State-level time-series data were obtained from various open-access sources for the period starting from March 1, 2020 through June 13, 2020 and the entire data set was divided into two parts for training and testing purposes. The variables selected by Granger causality were used to train the three different reduced order models by ordinary least square regression, Ridge regression, and LASSO regression algorithms. Finally, the prediction accuracy of the developed models was examined on the test data. The results indicate that the factors including the number of new COVID cases, social distancing index, population staying at home, percent of out of county trips, trips to different destinations, socioeconomic status, percent of people working from home, and statewide closure, among others, were the most important factors influencing daily VMT. Also, among all the modeling techniques, Ridge regression provides the most superior performance with the least error, while LASSO regression also performed better than the ordinary least square model.

Federated learning (FL) is an emerging, privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm, drawing tremendous attention in both academia and industry. A unique characteristic of FL is heterogeneity, which resides in the various hardware specifications and dynamic states across the participating devices. Theoretically, heterogeneity can exert a huge influence on the FL training process, e.g., causing a device unavailable for training or unable to upload its model updates. Unfortunately, these impacts have never been systematically studied and quantified in existing FL literature. In this paper, we carry out the first empirical study to characterize the impacts of heterogeneity in FL. We collect large-scale data from 136k smartphones that can faithfully reflect heterogeneity in real-world settings. We also build a heterogeneity-aware FL platform that complies with the standard FL protocol but with heterogeneity in consideration. Based on the data and the platform, we conduct extensive experiments to compare the performance of state-of-the-art FL algorithms under heterogeneity-aware and heterogeneity-unaware settings. Results show that heterogeneity causes non-trivial performance degradation in FL, including up to 9.2% accuracy drop, 2.32x lengthened training time, and undermined fairness. Furthermore, we analyze potential impact factors and find that device failure and participant bias are two potential factors for performance degradation. Our study provides insightful implications for FL practitioners. On the one hand, our findings suggest that FL algorithm designers consider necessary heterogeneity during the evaluation. On the other hand, our findings urge system providers to design specific mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of heterogeneity.

Training datasets for machine learning often have some form of missingness. For example, to learn a model for deciding whom to give a loan, the available training data includes individuals who were given a loan in the past, but not those who were not. This missingness, if ignored, nullifies any fairness guarantee of the training procedure when the model is deployed. Using causal graphs, we characterize the missingness mechanisms in different real-world scenarios. We show conditions under which various distributions, used in popular fairness algorithms, can or can not be recovered from the training data. Our theoretical results imply that many of these algorithms can not guarantee fairness in practice. Modeling missingness also helps to identify correct design principles for fair algorithms. For example, in multi-stage settings where decisions are made in multiple screening rounds, we use our framework to derive the minimal distributions required to design a fair algorithm. Our proposed algorithm decentralizes the decision-making process and still achieves similar performance to the optimal algorithm that requires centralization and non-recoverable distributions.

To make deliberate progress towards more intelligent and more human-like artificial systems, we need to be following an appropriate feedback signal: we need to be able to define and evaluate intelligence in a way that enables comparisons between two systems, as well as comparisons with humans. Over the past hundred years, there has been an abundance of attempts to define and measure intelligence, across both the fields of psychology and AI. We summarize and critically assess these definitions and evaluation approaches, while making apparent the two historical conceptions of intelligence that have implicitly guided them. We note that in practice, the contemporary AI community still gravitates towards benchmarking intelligence by comparing the skill exhibited by AIs and humans at specific tasks such as board games and video games. We argue that solely measuring skill at any given task falls short of measuring intelligence, because skill is heavily modulated by prior knowledge and experience: unlimited priors or unlimited training data allow experimenters to "buy" arbitrary levels of skills for a system, in a way that masks the system's own generalization power. We then articulate a new formal definition of intelligence based on Algorithmic Information Theory, describing intelligence as skill-acquisition efficiency and highlighting the concepts of scope, generalization difficulty, priors, and experience. Using this definition, we propose a set of guidelines for what a general AI benchmark should look like. Finally, we present a benchmark closely following these guidelines, the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), built upon an explicit set of priors designed to be as close as possible to innate human priors. We argue that ARC can be used to measure a human-like form of general fluid intelligence and that it enables fair general intelligence comparisons between AI systems and humans.

We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.

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