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Predictive uncertainties in classification tasks are often a consequence of model inadequacy or insufficient training data. In popular applications, such as image processing, we are often required to scrutinise these uncertainties by meaningfully attributing them to input features. This helps to improve interpretability assessments. However, there exist few effective frameworks for this purpose. Vanilla forms of popular methods for the provision of saliency masks, such as SHAP or integrated gradients, adapt poorly to target measures of uncertainty. Thus, state-of-the-art tools instead proceed by creating counterfactual or adversarial feature vectors, and assign attributions by direct comparison to original images. In this paper, we present a novel framework that combines path integrals, counterfactual explanations and generative models, in order to procure attributions that contain few observable artefacts or noise. We evidence that this outperforms existing alternatives through quantitative evaluations with popular benchmarking methods and data sets of varying complexity.

Due to the widespread use of complex machine learning models in real-world applications, it is becoming critical to explain model predictions. However, these models are typically black-box deep neural networks, explained post-hoc via methods with known faithfulness limitations. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are an inherently interpretable class of models that address this limitation by learning a non-linear shape function for each feature separately, followed by a linear model on top. However, these models are typically difficult to train, require numerous parameters, and are difficult to scale. We propose an entirely new subfamily of GAMs that utilizes basis decomposition of shape functions. A small number of basis functions are shared among all features, and are learned jointly for a given task, thus making our model scale much better to large-scale data with high-dimensional features, especially when features are sparse. We propose an architecture denoted as the Neural Basis Model (NBM) which uses a single neural network to learn these bases. On a variety of tabular and image datasets, we demonstrate that for interpretable machine learning, NBMs are the state-of-the-art in accuracy, model size, and, throughput and can easily model all higher-order feature interactions. Source code is available at //github.com/facebookresearch/nbm-spam.

Two of the most significant challenges in uncertainty quantification pertain to the high computational cost for simulating complex physical models and the high dimension of the random inputs. In applications of practical interest, both of these problems are encountered, and standard methods either fail or are not feasible. To overcome the current limitations, we present a generalized formulation of a Bayesian multi-fidelity Monte-Carlo (BMFMC) framework that can exploit lower-fidelity model versions in a small data regime. The goal of our analysis is an efficient and accurate estimation of the complete probabilistic response for high-fidelity models. BMFMC circumvents the curse of dimensionality by learning the relationship between the outputs of a reference high-fidelity model and potentially several lower-fidelity models. While the continuous formulation is mathematically exact and independent of the low-fidelity model's accuracy, we address challenges associated with the small data regime (i.e., only a small number of 50 to 300 high-fidelity model runs can be performed). Specifically, we complement the formulation with a set of informative input features at no extra cost. Despite the inaccurate and noisy information that some low-fidelity models provide, we demonstrate that accurate and certifiable estimates for the quantities of interest can be obtained for uncertainty quantification problems in high stochastic dimensions, with significantly fewer high-fidelity model runs than state-of-the-art methods for uncertainty quantification. We illustrate our approach by applying it to challenging numerical examples such as Navier-Stokes flow simulations and fluid-structure interaction problems.

Modern approaches to supervised learning like deep neural networks (DNNs) typically implicitly assume that observed responses are statistically independent. In contrast, correlated data are prevalent in real-life large-scale applications, with typical sources of correlation including spatial, temporal and clustering structures. These correlations are either ignored by DNNs, or ad-hoc solutions are developed for specific use cases. We propose to use the mixed models framework to handle correlated data in DNNs. By treating the effects underlying the correlation structure as random effects, mixed models are able to avoid overfitted parameter estimates and ultimately yield better predictive performance. The key to combining mixed models and DNNs is using the Gaussian negative log-likelihood (NLL) as a natural loss function that is minimized with DNN machinery including stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Since NLL does not decompose like standard DNN loss functions, the use of SGD with NLL presents some theoretical and implementation challenges, which we address. Our approach which we call LMMNN is demonstrated to improve performance over natural competitors in various correlation scenarios on diverse simulated and real datasets. Our focus is on a regression setting and tabular datasets, but we also show some results for classification. Our code is available at //github.com/gsimchoni/lmmnn.

Unsupervised black-box models are challenging to interpret. Indeed, most existing explainability methods require labels to select which component(s) of the black-box's output to interpret. In the absence of labels, black-box outputs often are representation vectors whose components do not correspond to any meaningful quantity. Hence, choosing which component(s) to interpret in a label-free unsupervised/self-supervised setting is an important, yet unsolved problem. To bridge this gap in the literature, we introduce two crucial extensions of post-hoc explanation techniques: (1) label-free feature importance and (2) label-free example importance that respectively highlight influential features and training examples for a black-box to construct representations at inference time. We demonstrate that our extensions can be successfully implemented as simple wrappers around many existing feature and example importance methods. We illustrate the utility of our label-free explainability paradigm through a qualitative and quantitative comparison of representation spaces learned by various autoencoders trained on distinct unsupervised tasks.

In practice, the use of rounding is ubiquitous. Although researchers have looked at the implications of rounding continuous random variables, rounding may be applied to functions of discrete random variables as well. For example, to infer on suicide excess deaths after a national emergency, authorities may provide a rounded average of deaths before and after the emergency started. Suicide rates tend to be relatively low around the world and such rounding may seriously affect inference on the change of suicide rate. In this paper, we study the scenario when a rounded to nearest integer average is used to estimate a non-negative discrete random variable. Specifically, our interest is in drawing inference on a parameter from the pmf of Y, when we get U = n[Y/n] as a proxy for Y. The probability generating function of U, E(U), and Var(U) capture the effect of the coarsening of the support of Y. Also, moments and estimators of distribution parameters are explored for some special cases. We show that under certain conditions, there is little impact from rounding. However, we also find scenarios where rounding can significantly affect statistical inference as demonstrated in two applications. The simple methods we propose are able to partially counter rounding error effects.

The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

The concept of smart grid has been introduced as a new vision of the conventional power grid to figure out an efficient way of integrating green and renewable energy technologies. In this way, Internet-connected smart grid, also called energy Internet, is also emerging as an innovative approach to ensure the energy from anywhere at any time. The ultimate goal of these developments is to build a sustainable society. However, integrating and coordinating a large number of growing connections can be a challenging issue for the traditional centralized grid system. Consequently, the smart grid is undergoing a transformation to the decentralized topology from its centralized form. On the other hand, blockchain has some excellent features which make it a promising application for smart grid paradigm. In this paper, we have an aim to provide a comprehensive survey on application of blockchain in smart grid. As such, we identify the significant security challenges of smart grid scenarios that can be addressed by blockchain. Then, we present a number of blockchain-based recent research works presented in different literatures addressing security issues in the area of smart grid. We also summarize several related practical projects, trials, and products that have been emerged recently. Finally, we discuss essential research challenges and future directions of applying blockchain to smart grid security issues.