Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.
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We present Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) estimation, a novel method for simulation-based inference in models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is not tractable and only a simulator that can generate synthetic data is available. SSNL fits a dimensionality-reducing surjective normalizing flow model and uses it as a surrogate likelihood function which allows for conventional Bayesian inference using either Markov chain Monte Carlo methods or variational inference. By embedding the data in a low-dimensional space, SSNL solves several issues previous likelihood-based methods had when applied to high-dimensional data sets that, for instance, contain non-informative data dimensions or lie along a lower-dimensional manifold. We evaluate SSNL on a wide variety of experiments and show that it generally outperforms contemporary methods used in simulation-based inference, for instance, on a challenging real-world example from astrophysics which models the magnetic field strength of the sun using a solar dynamo model.
Exoplanets can be detected with various observational techniques. Among them, radial velocity (RV) has the key advantages of revealing the architecture of planetary systems and measuring planetary mass and orbital eccentricities. RV observations are poised to play a key role in the detection and characterization of Earth twins. However, the detection of such small planets is not yet possible due to very complex, temporally correlated instrumental and astrophysical stochastic signals. Furthermore, exploring the large parameter space of RV models exhaustively and efficiently presents difficulties. In this review, we frame RV data analysis as a problem of detection and parameter estimation in unevenly sampled, multivariate time series. The objective of this review is two-fold: to introduce the motivation, methodological challenges, and numerical challenges of RV data analysis to nonspecialists, and to unify the existing advanced approaches in order to identify areas for improvement.
Markov categories have recently turned out to be a powerful high-level framework for probability and statistics. They accomodate purely categorical definitions of notions like conditional probability and almost sure equality, as well as proofs of fundamental resutlts such as the Hewitt-Savage 0/1 Law, the De Finetti Theorem and the Ergodic Decomposition Theorem. In this work, we develop additional relevant notions from probability theory in the setting of Markov categories. This comprises improved versions of previously introduced definitions of absolute continuity and supports, as well as a detailed study of idempotents and idempotent splitting in Markov categories. Our main result on idempotent splitting is that every idempotent measurable Markov kernel between standard Borel spaces splits through another standard Borel space, and we derive this as an instance of a general categorical criterion for idempotent splitting in Markov categories.
We consider the problem of finite-time identification of linear dynamical systems from $T$ samples of a single trajectory. Recent results have predominantly focused on the setup where no structural assumption is made on the system matrix $A^* \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times n}$, and have consequently analyzed the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in detail. We assume prior structural information on $A^*$ is available, which can be captured in the form of a convex set $\mathcal{K}$ containing $A^*$. For the solution of the ensuing constrained least squares estimator, we derive non-asymptotic error bounds in the Frobenius norm that depend on the local size of $\mathcal{K}$ at $A^*$. To illustrate the usefulness of these results, we instantiate them for three examples, namely when (i) $A^*$ is sparse and $\mathcal{K}$ is a suitably scaled $\ell_1$ ball; (ii) $\mathcal{K}$ is a subspace; (iii) $\mathcal{K}$ consists of matrices each of which is formed by sampling a bivariate convex function on a uniform $n \times n$ grid (convex regression). In all these situations, we show that $A^*$ can be reliably estimated for values of $T$ much smaller than what is needed for the unconstrained setting.
Which technological linkages affect the sector's ability to innovate? How do these effects transmit through the technology space? This paper answers these two key questions using novel methods of text mining and network analysis. We examine technological interdependence across sectors over a period of half a century (from 1976 to 2021) by analyzing the text of 6.5 million patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), and applying network analysis to uncover the full spectrum of linkages existing across technology areas. We demonstrate that patent text contains a wealth of information often not captured by traditional innovation metrics, such as patent citations. By using network analysis, we document that indirect linkages are as important as direct connections and that the former would remain mostly hidden using more traditional measures of indirect linkages, such as the Leontief inverse matrix. Finally, based on an impulse-response analysis, we illustrate how technological shocks transmit through the technology (network-based) space, affecting the innovation capacity of the sectors.
In a decentralized machine learning system, data is typically partitioned among multiple devices or nodes, each of which trains a local model using its own data. These local models are then shared and combined to create a global model that can make accurate predictions on new data. In this paper, we start exploring the role of the network topology connecting nodes on the performance of a Machine Learning model trained through direct collaboration between nodes. We investigate how different types of topologies impact the "spreading of knowledge", i.e., the ability of nodes to incorporate in their local model the knowledge derived by learning patterns in data available in other nodes across the networks. Specifically, we highlight the different roles in this process of more or less connected nodes (hubs and leaves), as well as that of macroscopic network properties (primarily, degree distribution and modularity). Among others, we show that, while it is known that even weak connectivity among network components is sufficient for information spread, it may not be sufficient for knowledge spread. More intuitively, we also find that hubs have a more significant role than leaves in spreading knowledge, although this manifests itself not only for heavy-tailed distributions but also when "hubs" have only moderately more connections than leaves. Finally, we show that tightly knit communities severely hinder knowledge spread.
Monte Carlo methods represent a cornerstone of computer science. They allow to sample high dimensional distribution functions in an efficient way. In this paper we consider the extension of Automatic Differentiation (AD) techniques to Monte Carlo process, addressing the problem of obtaining derivatives (and in general, the Taylor series) of expectation values. Borrowing ideas from the lattice field theory community, we examine two approaches. One is based on reweighting while the other represents an extension of the Hamiltonian approach typically used by the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) and similar algorithms. We show that the Hamiltonian approach can be understood as a change of variables of the reweighting approach, resulting in much reduced variances of the coefficients of the Taylor series. This work opens the door to find other variance reduction techniques for derivatives of expectation values.
Neural operators have emerged as a powerful tool for learning the mapping between infinite-dimensional parameter and solution spaces of partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we focus on multiscale PDEs that have important applications such as reservoir modeling and turbulence prediction. We demonstrate that for such PDEs, the spectral bias towards low-frequency components presents a significant challenge for existing neural operators. To address this challenge, we propose a hierarchical attention neural operator (HANO) inspired by the hierarchical matrix approach. HANO features a scale-adaptive interaction range and self-attentions over a hierarchy of levels, enabling nested feature computation with controllable linear cost and encoding/decoding of multiscale solution space. We also incorporate an empirical $H^1$ loss function to enhance the learning of high-frequency components. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that HANO outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods for representative multiscale problems.
Comparative effectiveness research frequently addresses a time-to-event outcome and can require unique considerations in the presence of treatment noncompliance. Motivated by the challenges in addressing noncompliance in the ADAPTABLE pragmatic trial, we develop a multiply robust estimator to estimate the principal survival causal effects under the principal ignorability and monotonicity assumption. The multiply robust estimator involves several working models including that for the treatment assignment, the compliance strata, censoring, and time-to-event of interest. The proposed estimator is consistent even if one, and sometimes two, of the working models are misspecified. We apply the multiply robust method in the ADAPTABLE trial to evaluate the effect of low- versus high-dose aspirin assignment on patients' death and hospitalization from cardiovascular diseases. We find that, comparing to low-dose assignment, assignment to the high-dose leads to differential effects among always high-dose takers, compliers, and always low-dose takers. Such treatment effect heterogeneity contributes to the null intention-to-treatment effect, and suggests that policy makers should design personalized strategies based on potential compliance patterns to maximize treatment benefits to the entire study population. We further perform a formal sensitivity analysis for investigating the robustness of our causal conclusions under violation of two identification assumptions specific to noncompliance.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
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