It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to understand treatment heterogeneity better. This paper addresses the challenge of interpreting such differences in treatment effects between groups while accounting for variations in other covariates. We propose a new parameter, the balanced group average treatment effect (BGATE), which measures a GATE with a specific distribution of a priori-determined covariates. By taking the difference of two BGATEs, we can analyse heterogeneity more meaningfully than by comparing two GATEs. The estimation strategy for this parameter is based on double/debiased machine learning for discrete treatments in an unconfoundedness setting, and the estimator is shown to be $\sqrt{N}$-consistent and asymptotically normal under standard conditions. Adding additional identifying assumptions allows specific balanced differences in treatment effects between groups to be interpreted causally, leading to the causal balanced group average treatment effect. We explore the finite sample properties in a small-scale simulation study and demonstrate the usefulness of these parameters in an empirical example.
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The CVAE is one of the most widely-used models in trajectory prediction for AD. It captures the interplay between a driving context and its ground-truth future into a probabilistic latent space and uses it to produce predictions. In this paper, we challenge key components of the CVAE. We leverage recent advances in the space of the VAE, the foundation of the CVAE, which show that a simple change in the sampling procedure can greatly benefit performance. We find that unscented sampling, which draws samples from any learned distribution in a deterministic manner, can naturally be better suited to trajectory prediction than potentially dangerous random sampling. We go further and offer additional improvements including a more structured Gaussian mixture latent space, as well as a novel, potentially more expressive way to do inference with CVAEs. We show wide applicability of our models by evaluating them on the INTERACTION prediction dataset, outperforming the state of the art, as well as at the task of image modeling on the CelebA dataset, outperforming the baseline vanilla CVAE. Code is available at //github.com/boschresearch/cuae-prediction.
Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series or spatially correlated observations. In this paper, we propose a novel bootstrap method that is designed to account for data dependencies and can be executed online, making it particularly suitable for real-time applications. This method is based on an autoregressive sequence of increasingly dependent resampling weights. We prove the theoretical validity of the proposed bootstrap scheme under general conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive simulations and show that it provides reliable uncertainty quantification even in the presence of complex data dependencies. Our work bridges the gap between classical resampling techniques and the demands of modern data analysis, providing a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners in dynamic, data-rich environments.
Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss function that directly optimizes the hierarchical product and/or temporal structure. The benefit of our sparse hierarchical loss function is that it provides practitioners a method of producing bottom-level forecasts that are coherent to any chosen cross-sectional or temporal hierarchy. In addition, removing the need for a post-processing step as required in traditional hierarchical forecasting techniques reduces the computational cost of the prediction phase in the forecasting pipeline. On the public M5 dataset, our sparse hierarchical loss function performs up to 10% (RMSE) better compared to the baseline loss function. We implement our sparse hierarchical loss function within an existing forecasting model at bol, a large European e-commerce platform, resulting in an improved forecasting performance of 2% at the product level. Finally, we found an increase in forecasting performance of about 5-10% when evaluating the forecasting performance across the cross-sectional hierarchies that we defined. These results demonstrate the usefulness of our sparse hierarchical loss applied to a production forecasting system at a major e-commerce platform.
Imitation Learning (IL) is a powerful technique for intuitive robotic programming. However, ensuring the reliability of learned behaviors remains a challenge. In the context of reaching motions, a robot should consistently reach its goal, regardless of its initial conditions. To meet this requirement, IL methods often employ specialized function approximators that guarantee this property by construction. Although effective, these approaches come with a set of limitations: 1) they are unable to fully exploit the capabilities of modern Deep Neural Network (DNN) architectures, 2) some are restricted in the family of motions they can model, resulting in suboptimal IL capabilities, and 3) they require explicit extensions to account for the geometry of motions that consider orientations. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel stability loss function, drawing inspiration from the triplet loss used in the deep metric learning literature. This loss does not constrain the DNN's architecture and enables learning policies that yield accurate results. Furthermore, it is not restricted to a specific state space geometry; therefore, it can easily incorporate the geometry of the robot's state space. We provide a proof of the stability properties induced by this loss and empirically validate our method in various settings. These settings include Euclidean and non-Euclidean state spaces, as well as first-order and second-order motions, both in simulation and with real robots. More details about the experimental results can be found in: //youtu.be/ZWKLGntCI6w.
We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of two independent processes: one spanned by a finite basis of inducing points and the other capturing the remaining variation. We show that this formulation recovers existing approximations and at the same time allows to obtain tighter lower bounds on the marginal likelihood and new stochastic variational inference algorithms. We demonstrate the efficiency of these algorithms in several Gaussian process models ranging from standard regression to multi-class classification using (deep) convolutional Gaussian processes and report state-of-the-art results on CIFAR-10 among purely GP-based models.
With the explosive growth of data, continual learning capability is increasingly important for neural networks. Due to catastrophic forgetting, neural networks inevitably forget the knowledge of old tasks after learning new ones. In visual classification scenario, a common practice of alleviating the forgetting is to constrain the backbone. However, the impact of classifiers is underestimated. In this paper, we analyze the variation of model predictions in sequential binary classification tasks and find that the norm of the equivalent one-class classifiers significantly affects the forgetting level. Based on this conclusion, we propose a two-stage continual learning algorithm named Fixed Random Classifier Rearrangement (FRCR). In first stage, FRCR replaces the learnable classifiers with fixed random classifiers, constraining the norm of the equivalent one-class classifiers without affecting the performance of the network. In second stage, FRCR rearranges the entries of new classifiers to implicitly reduce the drift of old latent representations. The experimental results on multiple datasets show that FRCR significantly mitigates the model forgetting; subsequent experimental analyses further validate the effectiveness of the algorithm.
With the rapid development of deep learning, training Big Models (BMs) for multiple downstream tasks becomes a popular paradigm. Researchers have achieved various outcomes in the construction of BMs and the BM application in many fields. At present, there is a lack of research work that sorts out the overall progress of BMs and guides the follow-up research. In this paper, we cover not only the BM technologies themselves but also the prerequisites for BM training and applications with BMs, dividing the BM review into four parts: Resource, Models, Key Technologies and Application. We introduce 16 specific BM-related topics in those four parts, they are Data, Knowledge, Computing System, Parallel Training System, Language Model, Vision Model, Multi-modal Model, Theory&Interpretability, Commonsense Reasoning, Reliability&Security, Governance, Evaluation, Machine Translation, Text Generation, Dialogue and Protein Research. In each topic, we summarize clearly the current studies and propose some future research directions. At the end of this paper, we conclude the further development of BMs in a more general view.
Data augmentation has been widely used to improve generalizability of machine learning models. However, comparatively little work studies data augmentation for graphs. This is largely due to the complex, non-Euclidean structure of graphs, which limits possible manipulation operations. Augmentation operations commonly used in vision and language have no analogs for graphs. Our work studies graph data augmentation for graph neural networks (GNNs) in the context of improving semi-supervised node-classification. We discuss practical and theoretical motivations, considerations and strategies for graph data augmentation. Our work shows that neural edge predictors can effectively encode class-homophilic structure to promote intra-class edges and demote inter-class edges in given graph structure, and our main contribution introduces the GAug graph data augmentation framework, which leverages these insights to improve performance in GNN-based node classification via edge prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that augmentation via GAug improves performance across GNN architectures and datasets.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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