This paper builds upon the work of Pfau (2013), which generalized the bias variance tradeoff to any Bregman divergence loss function. Pfau (2013) showed that for Bregman divergences, the bias and variances are defined with respect to a central label, defined as the expected mean of the label, and a central prediction, of a more complex form. We show that, similarly to the label, the central prediction can be interpreted as the mean of a random variable, where the mean operates in a dual space defined by the loss function itself. Viewing the bias-variance tradeoff through operations taken in dual space, we subsequently derive several results of interest. In particular, (a) the variance terms satisfy a generalized law of total variance; (b) if a source of randomness cannot be controlled, its contribution to the bias and variance has a closed form; (c) there exist natural ensembling operations in the label and prediction spaces which reduce the variance and do not affect the bias.
相關內容
The number of information systems (IS) studies dealing with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is currently exploding as the field demands more transparency about the internal decision logic of machine learning (ML) models. However, most techniques subsumed under XAI provide post-hoc-analytical explanations, which have to be considered with caution as they only use approximations of the underlying ML model. Therefore, our paper investigates a series of intrinsically interpretable ML models and discusses their suitability for the IS community. More specifically, our focus is on advanced extensions of generalized additive models (GAM) in which predictors are modeled independently in a non-linear way to generate shape functions that can capture arbitrary patterns but remain fully interpretable. In our study, we evaluate the prediction qualities of five GAMs as compared to six traditional ML models and assess their visual outputs for model interpretability. On this basis, we investigate their merits and limitations and derive design implications for further improvements.
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.
Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.
Heavy ball momentum is a popular acceleration idea in stochastic optimization. There have been several attempts to understand its perceived benefits, but the complete picture is still unclear. Specifically, the error expression in the presence of noise has two separate terms: the bias and the variance, but most existing works only focus on bias and show that momentum accelerates its decay. Such analyses overlook the interplay between bias and variance and, therefore, miss important implications. In this work, we analyze a sample complexity bound of stochastic approximation algorithms with heavy-ball momentum that accounts for both bias and variance. We find that for the same step size, which is small enough, the iterates with momentum have improved sample complexity compared to the ones without. However, by using a different step-size sequence, the non-momentum version can nullify this benefit. Subsequently, we show that our sample complexity bounds are indeed tight for a small enough neighborhood around the solution and large enough noise variance. Our analysis also sheds some light on the finite-time behavior of these algorithms. This explains the perceived benefit in the initial phase of momentum-based schemes.
The local reference frame (LRF), as an independent coordinate system generated on a local 3D surface, is widely used in 3D local feature descriptor construction and 3D transformation estimation which are two key steps in the local method-based surface matching. There are numerous LRF methods have been proposed in literatures. In these methods, the x- and z-axis are commonly generated by different methods or strategies, and some x-axis methods are implemented on the basis of a z-axis being given. In addition, the weight and disambiguation methods are commonly used in these LRF methods. In existing evaluations of LRF, each LRF method is evaluated with a complete form. However, the merits and demerits of the z-axis, x-axis, weight and disambiguation methods in LRF construction are unclear. In this paper, we comprehensively analyze the z-axis, x-axis, weight and disambiguation methods in existing LRFs, and obtain six z-axis and eight x-axis, five weight and two disambiguation methods. The performance of these methods are comprehensively evaluated on six standard datasets with different application scenarios and nuisances. Considering the evaluation outcomes, the merits and demerits of different weight, disambiguation, z- and x-axis methods are analyzed and summarized. The experimental result also shows that some new designed LRF axes present superior performance compared with the state-of-the-art ones.
An important challenge in statistical analysis lies in controlling the estimation bias when handling the ever-increasing data size and model complexity. For example, approximate methods are increasingly used to address the analytical and/or computational challenges when implementing standard estimators, but they often lead to inconsistent estimators. So consistent estimators can be difficult to obtain, especially for complex models and/or in settings where the number of parameters diverges with the sample size. We propose a general simulation-based estimation framework that allows to construct consistent and bias corrected estimators for parameters of increasing dimensions. The key advantage of the proposed framework is that it only requires to compute a simple inconsistent estimator multiple times. The resulting Just Identified iNdirect Inference estimator (JINI) enjoys nice properties, including consistency, asymptotic normality, and finite sample bias correction better than alternative methods. We further provide a simple algorithm to construct the JINI in a computationally efficient manner. Therefore, the JINI is especially useful in settings where standard methods may be challenging to apply, for example, in the presence of misclassification and rounding. We consider comprehensive simulation studies and analyze an alcohol consumption data example to illustrate the excellent performance and usefulness of the method.
Recently, numerous studies have demonstrated the presence of bias in machine learning powered decision-making systems. Although most definitions of algorithmic bias have solid mathematical foundations, the corresponding bias detection techniques often lack statistical rigor, especially for non-iid data. We fill this gap in the literature by presenting a rigorous non-parametric testing procedure for bias according to Predictive Rate Parity, a commonly considered notion of algorithmic bias. We adapt traditional asymptotic results for non-parametric estimators to test for bias in the presence of dependence commonly seen in user-level data generated by technology industry applications and illustrate how these approaches can be leveraged for mitigation. We further propose modifications of this methodology to address bias measured through marginal outcome disparities in classification settings and extend notions of predictive rate parity to multi-objective models. Experimental results on real data show the efficacy of the proposed detection and mitigation methods.
This article presents an in-depth review of the topic of path following for autonomous robotic vehicles, with a specific focus on vehicle motion in two dimensional space (2D). From a control system standpoint, path following can be formulated as the problem of stabilizing a path following error system that describes the dynamics of position and possibly orientation errors of a vehicle with respect to a path, with the errors defined in an appropriate reference frame. In spite of the large variety of path following methods described in the literature we show that, in principle, most of them can be categorized in two groups: stabilization of the path following error system expressed either in the vehicle's body frame or in a frame attached to a "reference point" moving along the path, such as a Frenet-Serret (F-S) frame or a Parallel Transport (P-T) frame. With this observation, we provide a unified formulation that is simple but general enough to cover many methods available in the literature. We then discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method, comparing them from the design and implementation standpoint. We further show experimental results of the path following methods obtained from field trials testing with under-actuated and fully-actuated autonomous marine vehicles. In addition, we introduce open-source Matlab and Gazebo/ROS simulation toolboxes that are helpful in testing path following methods prior to their integration in the combined guidance, navigation, and control systems of autonomous vehicles.
This paper reports on a follow-up study of the work reported in Sakai, which explored suitable evaluation measures for ordinal quantification tasks. More specifically, the present study defines and evaluates, in addition to the quantification measures considered earlier, a few variants of an ordinal quantification measure called Root Normalised Order-aware Divergence (RNOD), as well as a measure which we call Divergence based on Kendall's $\tau$ (DNKT). The RNOD variants represent alternative design choices based on the idea of Sakai's Distance-Weighted sum of squares (DW), while DNKT is designed to ensure that the system's estimated distribution over classes is faithful to the target priorities over classes. As this Priority Preserving Property (PPP) of DNKT may be useful in some applications, we also consider combining some of the existing quantification measures with DNKT. Our experiments with eight ordinal quantification data sets suggest that the variants of RNOD do not offer any benefit over the original RNOD at least in terms of system ranking consistency, i.e., robustness of the system ranking to the choice of test data. Of all ordinal quantification measures considered in this study (including Normalised Match Distance, a.k.a. Earth Mover's Distance), RNOD is the most robust measure overall. Hence the design choice of RNOD is a good one from this viewpoint. Also, DNKT is the worst performer in terms of system ranking consistency. Hence, if DNKT seems appropriate for a task, sample size design should take its statistical instability into account.
Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191