On small neighborhoods of the capacity-achieving input distributions, the decrease of the mutual information with the distance to the capacity-achieving input distributions is bounded below by a linear function of the square of the distance to the capacity-achieving input distributions for all channels with (possibly multiple) linear constraints and finite input sets using an identity due to Tops{\o}e and Pinsker's inequality. Counter examples demonstrating non-existence of such a quadratic bound are provided for the case of infinite many linear constraints and the case of infinite input sets. Using a Taylor series approximation, rather than Pinsker's inequality, the exact characterization of the slowest decrease of the mutual information with the distance to the capacity-achieving input distributions is determined on small neighborhoods of the capacity-achieving input distributions. Analogous results are established for classical-quantum channels whose output density operators are defined on a separable Hilbert spaces. Implications of these observations for the channel coding problem and applications of the proof technique to related problems are discussed.
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State-space models (SSMs) are commonly used to model time series data where the observations depend on an unobserved latent process. However, inference on the model parameters of an SSM can be challenging, especially when the likelihood of the data given the parameters is not available in closed-form. One approach is to jointly sample the latent states and model parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and/or sequential Monte Carlo approximation. These methods can be inefficient, mixing poorly when there are many highly correlated latent states or parameters, or when there is a high rate of sample impoverishment in the sequential Monte Carlo approximations. We propose a novel block proposal distribution for Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling on the joint latent state and parameter space. The proposal distribution is informed by a deterministic hidden Markov model (HMM), defined such that the usual theoretical guarantees of MCMC algorithms apply. We discuss how the HMMs are constructed, the generality of the approach arising from the tuning parameters, and how these tuning parameters can be chosen efficiently in practice. We demonstrate that the proposed algorithm using HMM approximations provides an efficient alternative method for fitting state-space models, even for those that exhibit near-chaotic behavior.
This work is dedicated to the topological analysis of complex transitional networks for dynamic state detection. Transitional networks are formed from time series data and they leverage graph theory tools to reveal information about the underlying dynamic system. However, traditional tools can fail to summarize the complex topology present in such graphs. In this work, we leverage persistent homology from topological data analysis to study the structure of these networks. We contrast dynamic state detection from time series using a coarse-grained state-space network (CGSSN) and topological data analysis (TDA) to two state of the art approaches: ordinal partition networks (OPNs) combined with TDA and the standard application of persistent homology to the time-delay embedding of the signal. We show that the CGSSN captures rich information about the dynamic state of the underlying dynamical system as evidenced by a significant improvement in dynamic state detection and noise robustness in comparison to OPNs. We also show that because the computational time of CGSSN is not linearly dependent on the signal's length, it is more computationally efficient than applying TDA to the time-delay embedding of the time series.
Graph-based kNN algorithms have garnered widespread popularity for machine learning tasks, due to their simplicity and effectiveness. However, the conventional kNN graph's reliance on a fixed value of k can hinder its performance, especially in scenarios involving complex data distributions. Moreover, like other classification models, the presence of ambiguous samples along decision boundaries often presents a challenge, as they are more prone to incorrect classification. To address these issues, we propose the Preferential Attached k-Nearest Neighbors Graph (paNNG), which combines adaptive kNN with distribution-based graph construction. By incorporating distribution information, paNNG can significantly improve performance for ambiguous samples by "pulling" them towards their original classes and hence enable enhanced overall accuracy and generalization capability. Through rigorous evaluations on diverse benchmark datasets, paNNG outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms, showcasing its adaptability and efficacy across various real-world scenarios.
The design of a neural image compression network is governed by how well the entropy model matches the true distribution of the latent code. Apart from the model capacity, this ability is indirectly under the effect of how close the relaxed quantization is to the actual hard quantization. Optimizing the parameters of a rate-distortion variational autoencoder (R-D VAE) is ruled by this approximated quantization scheme. In this paper, we propose a feature-level frequency disentanglement to help the relaxed scalar quantization achieve lower bit rates by guiding the high entropy latent features to include most of the low-frequency texture of the image. In addition, to strengthen the de-correlating power of the transformer-based analysis/synthesis transform, an augmented self-attention score calculation based on the Hadamard product is utilized during both encoding and decoding. Channel-wise autoregressive entropy modeling takes advantage of the proposed frequency separation as it inherently directs high-informational low-frequency channels to the first chunks and conditions the future chunks on it. The proposed network not only outperforms hand-engineered codecs, but also neural network-based codecs built on computation-heavy spatially autoregressive entropy models.
Floods are one of the most common and impactful natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow monitoring networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but accurate hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed where they are applied. We developed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) model to predict extreme hydrological events at timescales up to 7 days in advance. This model significantly outperforms current state of the art global hydrology models (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System) across all continents, lead times, and return periods. AI is especially effective at forecasting in ungauged basins, which is important because only a few percent of the world's watersheds have stream gauges, with a disproportionate number of ungauged basins in developing countries that are especially vulnerable to the human impacts of flooding. We produce forecasts of extreme events in South America and Africa that achieve reliability approaching the current state of the art in Europe and North America, and we achieve reliability at between 4 and 6-day lead times that are similar to current state of the art nowcasts (0-day lead time). Additionally, we achieve accuracies over 10-year return period events that are similar to current accuracies over 2-year return period events, meaning that AI can provide warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events. The model that we develop in this paper has been incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work using AI and open data highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.
Causal probabilistic graph-based models have gained widespread utility, enabling the modeling of cause-and-effect relationships across diverse domains. With their rising adoption in new areas, such as automotive system safety and machine learning, the need for an integrated lifecycle framework akin to DevOps and MLOps has emerged. Currently, a process reference for organizations interested in employing causal engineering is missing. To address this gap and foster widespread industrial adoption, we propose CausalOps, a novel lifecycle framework for causal model development and application. By defining key entities, dependencies, and intermediate artifacts generated during causal engineering, we establish a consistent vocabulary and workflow model. This work contextualizes causal model usage across different stages and stakeholders, outlining a holistic view of creating and maintaining them. CausalOps' aim is to drive the adoption of causal methods in practical applications within interested organizations and the causality community.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.
In semi-supervised domain adaptation, a few labeled samples per class in the target domain guide features of the remaining target samples to aggregate around them. However, the trained model cannot produce a highly discriminative feature representation for the target domain because the training data is dominated by labeled samples from the source domain. This could lead to disconnection between the labeled and unlabeled target samples as well as misalignment between unlabeled target samples and the source domain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called Cross-domain Adaptive Clustering to address this problem. To achieve both inter-domain and intra-domain adaptation, we first introduce an adversarial adaptive clustering loss to group features of unlabeled target data into clusters and perform cluster-wise feature alignment across the source and target domains. We further apply pseudo labeling to unlabeled samples in the target domain and retain pseudo-labels with high confidence. Pseudo labeling expands the number of ``labeled" samples in each class in the target domain, and thus produces a more robust and powerful cluster core for each class to facilitate adversarial learning. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, including DomainNet, Office-Home and Office, demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves the state-of-the-art performance in semi-supervised domain adaptation.
Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have revolutionized the field of graph representation learning through effectively learned node embeddings, and achieved state-of-the-art results in tasks such as node classification and link prediction. However, current GNN methods are inherently flat and do not learn hierarchical representations of graphs---a limitation that is especially problematic for the task of graph classification, where the goal is to predict the label associated with an entire graph. Here we propose DiffPool, a differentiable graph pooling module that can generate hierarchical representations of graphs and can be combined with various graph neural network architectures in an end-to-end fashion. DiffPool learns a differentiable soft cluster assignment for nodes at each layer of a deep GNN, mapping nodes to a set of clusters, which then form the coarsened input for the next GNN layer. Our experimental results show that combining existing GNN methods with DiffPool yields an average improvement of 5-10% accuracy on graph classification benchmarks, compared to all existing pooling approaches, achieving a new state-of-the-art on four out of five benchmark data sets.
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