Torsades de pointes (TdP) is an irregular heart rhythm characterized by faster beat rates and potentially could lead to sudden cardiac death. Much effort has been invested in understanding the drug-induced TdP in preclinical studies. However, a comprehensive statistical learning framework that can accurately predict the drug-induced TdP risk from preclinical data is still lacking. We proposed ordinal logistic regression and ordinal random forest models to predict low-, intermediate-, and high-risk drugs based on datasets generated from two experimental protocols. Leave-one-drug-out cross-validation, stratified bootstrap, and permutation predictor importance were applied to estimate and interpret the model performance under uncertainty. The potential outlier drugs identified by our models are consistent with their descriptions in the literature. Our method is accurate, interpretable, and thus useable as supplemental evidence in the drug safety assessment.
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The growing complexity of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and challenges in ensuring safety and security have led to the increasing use of deep learning methods for accurate and scalable anomaly detection. However, machine learning (ML) models often suffer from low performance in predicting unexpected data and are vulnerable to accidental or malicious perturbations. Although robustness testing of deep learning models has been extensively explored in applications such as image classification and speech recognition, less attention has been paid to ML-driven safety monitoring in CPS. This paper presents the preliminary results on evaluating the robustness of ML-based anomaly detection methods in safety-critical CPS against two types of accidental and malicious input perturbations, generated using a Gaussian-based noise model and the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM). We test the hypothesis of whether integrating the domain knowledge (e.g., on unsafe system behavior) with the ML models can improve the robustness of anomaly detection without sacrificing accuracy and transparency. Experimental results with two case studies of Artificial Pancreas Systems (APS) for diabetes management show that ML-based safety monitors trained with domain knowledge can reduce on average up to 54.2% of robustness error and keep the average F1 scores high while improving transparency.
In this paper, we propose a novel mutual consistency network (MC-Net+) to effectively exploit the unlabeled data for semi-supervised medical image segmentation. The MC-Net+ model is motivated by the observation that deep models trained with limited annotations are prone to output highly uncertain and easily mis-classified predictions in ambiguous regions (e.g., adhesive edges or thin branches) for medical image segmentation. Leveraging these region-level challenging samples can make the semi-supervised segmentation model training more effective. Therefore, our proposed MC-Net+ model consists of two new designs. First, the model contains one shared encoder and multiple slightly different decoders (i.e., using different up-sampling strategies). The statistical discrepancy of multiple decoders' outputs is computed to denote the model's uncertainty, which indicates the unlabeled hard regions. Second, we apply a novel mutual consistency constraint between one decoder's probability output and other decoders' soft pseudo labels. In this way, we minimize the discrepancy of multiple outputs (i.e., the model uncertainty) during training and force the model to generate invariant results in such challenging regions, aiming at capturing more useful features. We compared the segmentation results of our MC-Net+ with five state-of-the-art semi-supervised approaches on three public medical datasets. Extension experiments with two common semi-supervised settings demonstrate the superior performance of our model over other existing methods, which sets a new state of the art for semi-supervised medical image segmentation.
Applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL), in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the latent states of the controlled system, that is, they act under partial observability of the states, are ubiquitous. Partially observable RL can be notoriously difficult -- well-known information-theoretic results show that learning partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) requires an exponential number of samples in the worst case. Yet, this does not rule out the existence of large subclasses of POMDPs over which learning is tractable. In this paper we identify such a subclass, which we call weakly revealing POMDPs. This family rules out the pathological instances of POMDPs where observations are uninformative to a degree that makes learning hard. We prove that for weakly revealing POMDPs, a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to guarantee polynomial sample complexity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provably sample-efficient result for learning from interactions in overcomplete POMDPs, where the number of latent states can be larger than the number of observations.
Augmentation Invariance and Adaptive Sampling in Semantic Segmentation of Agricultural Aerial Images
In this paper, we investigate the problem of Semantic Segmentation for agricultural aerial imagery. We observe that the existing methods used for this task are designed without considering two characteristics of the aerial data: (i) the top-down perspective implies that the model cannot rely on a fixed semantic structure of the scene, because the same scene may be experienced with different rotations of the sensor; (ii) there can be a strong imbalance in the distribution of semantic classes because the relevant objects of the scene may appear at extremely different scales (e.g., a field of crops and a small vehicle). We propose a solution to these problems based on two ideas: (i) we use together a set of suitable augmentation and a consistency loss to guide the model to learn semantic representations that are invariant to the photometric and geometric shifts typical of the top-down perspective (Augmentation Invariance); (ii) we use a sampling method (Adaptive Sampling) that selects the training images based on a measure of pixel-wise distribution of classes and actual network confidence. With an extensive set of experiments conducted on the Agriculture-Vision dataset, we demonstrate that our proposed strategies improve the performance of the current state-of-the-art method.
The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.
Applying artificial intelligence techniques in medical imaging is one of the most promising areas in medicine. However, most of the recent success in this area highly relies on large amounts of carefully annotated data, whereas annotating medical images is a costly process. In this paper, we propose a novel method, called FocalMix, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to leverage recent advances in semi-supervised learning (SSL) for 3D medical image detection. We conducted extensive experiments on two widely used datasets for lung nodule detection, LUNA16 and NLST. Results show that our proposed SSL methods can achieve a substantial improvement of up to 17.3% over state-of-the-art supervised learning approaches with 400 unlabeled CT scans.
Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.
Medical image segmentation requires consensus ground truth segmentations to be derived from multiple expert annotations. A novel approach is proposed that obtains consensus segmentations from experts using graph cuts (GC) and semi supervised learning (SSL). Popular approaches use iterative Expectation Maximization (EM) to estimate the final annotation and quantify annotator's performance. Such techniques pose the risk of getting trapped in local minima. We propose a self consistency (SC) score to quantify annotator consistency using low level image features. SSL is used to predict missing annotations by considering global features and local image consistency. The SC score also serves as the penalty cost in a second order Markov random field (MRF) cost function optimized using graph cuts to derive the final consensus label. Graph cut obtains a global maximum without an iterative procedure. Experimental results on synthetic images, real data of Crohn's disease patients and retinal images show our final segmentation to be accurate and more consistent than competing methods.
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