Univariate and multivariate normal probability distributions are widely used when modeling decisions under uncertainty. Computing the performance of such models requires integrating these distributions over specific domains, which can vary widely across models. Besides some special cases, there exist no general analytical expressions, standard numerical methods or software for these integrals. Here we present mathematical results and open-source software that provide (i) the probability in any domain of a normal in any dimensions with any parameters, (ii) the probability density, cumulative distribution, and inverse cumulative distribution of any function of a normal vector, (iii) the classification errors among any number of normal distributions, the Bayes-optimal discriminability index and relation to the operating characteristic, (iv) dimension reduction and visualizations for such problems, and (v) tests for how reliably these methods may be used on given data. We demonstrate these tools with vision research applications of detecting occluding objects in natural scenes, and detecting camouflage.
We introduce a new class of absorbing boundary conditions (ABCs) for the Helmholtz equation. The proposed ABCs can be derived from a certain simple class of perfectly matched layers using $L$ discrete layers and using the $Q_N$ Lagrange finite element in conjunction with the $N$-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature reduced integration rule. The proposed ABCs are classified by a tuple $(L,N)$, and achieve reflection error of order $O(R^{2LN})$ for some $R<1$. The new ABCs generalise the perfectly matched discrete layers proposed by Guddati and Lim [Int. J. Numer. Meth. Engng 66 (6) (2006) 949-977], including them as type $(L,1)$. An analysis of the proposed ABCs is performed motivated by the work of Ainsworth [J. Comput. Phys. 198 (1) (2004) 106-130]. The new ABCs facilitate numerical implementations of the Helmholtz problem with ABCs if $Q_N$ finite elements are used in the physical domain. Moreover, giving more insight, the analysis presented in this work potentially aids with developing ABCs in related areas.
Stochastic multi-scale modeling and simulation for nonlinear thermo-mechanical problems of composite materials with complicated random microstructures remains a challenging issue. In this paper, we develop a novel statistical higher-order multi-scale (SHOMS) method for nonlinear thermo-mechanical simulation of random composite materials, which is designed to overcome limitations of prohibitive computation involving the macro-scale and micro-scale. By virtue of statistical multi-scale asymptotic analysis and Taylor series method, the SHOMS computational model is rigorously derived for accurately analyzing nonlinear thermo-mechanical responses of random composite materials both in the macro-scale and micro-scale. Moreover, the local error analysis of SHOMS solutions in the point-wise sense clearly illustrates the crucial indispensability of establishing the higher-order asymptotic corrected terms in SHOMS computational model for keeping the conservation of local energy and momentum. Then, the corresponding space-time multi-scale numerical algorithm with off-line and on-line stages is designed to efficiently simulate nonlinear thermo-mechanical behaviors of random composite materials. Finally, extensive numerical experiments are presented to gauge the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed SHOMS approach.
In this paper, we introduce the flexible interpretable gamma (FIG) distribution which has been derived by Weibullisation of the body-tail generalised normal distribution. The parameters of the FIG have been verified graphically and mathematically as having interpretable roles in controlling the left-tail, body, and right-tail shape. The generalised gamma (GG) distribution has become a staple model for positive data in statistics due to its interpretable parameters and tractable equations. Although there are many generalised forms of the GG which can provide better fit to data, none of them extend the GG so that the parameters are interpretable. Additionally, we present some mathematical characteristics and prove the identifiability of the FIG parameters. Finally, we apply the FIG model to hand grip strength and insurance loss data to assess its flexibility relative to existing models.
We propose a new way to assess certain short constructed responses to mathematics items. Our approach uses a pipeline that identifies the key values specified by the student in their response. This allows us to determine the correctness of the response, as well as identify any misconceptions. The information from the value identification pipeline can then be used to provide feedback to the teacher and student. The value identification pipeline consists of two fine-tuned language models. The first model determines if a value is implicit in the student response. The second model identifies where in the response the key value is specified. We consider both a generic model that can be used for any prompt and value, as well as models that are specific to each prompt and value. The value identification pipeline is a more accurate and informative way to assess short constructed responses than traditional rubric-based scoring. It can be used to provide more targeted feedback to students, which can help them improve their understanding of mathematics.
The distributed task allocation problem, as one of the most interesting distributed optimization challenges, has received considerable research attention recently. Previous works mainly focused on the task allocation problem in a population of individuals, where there are no constraints for affording task amounts. The latter condition, however, cannot always be hold. In this paper, we study the task allocation problem with constraints of task allocation in a game-theoretical framework. We assume that each individual can afford different amounts of task and the cost function is convex. To investigate the problem in the framework of population games, we construct a potential game and calculate the fitness function for each individual. We prove that when the Nash equilibrium point in the potential game is in the feasible solutions for the limited task allocation problem, the Nash equilibrium point is the unique globally optimal solution. Otherwise, we also derive analytically the unique globally optimal solution. In addition, in order to confirm our theoretical results, we consider the exponential and quadratic forms of cost function for each agent. Two algorithms with the mentioned representative cost functions are proposed to numerically seek the optimal solution to the limited task problems. We further perform Monte Carlo simulations which provide agreeing results with our analytical calculations.
Multivariate B-splines and Non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) lack adaptivity due to their tensor product structure. Truncated hierarchical B-splines (THB-splines) provide a solution for this. THB-splines organize the parameter space into a hierarchical structure, which enables efficient approximation and representation of functions with different levels of detail. The truncation mechanism ensures the partition of unity property of B-splines and defines a more scattered set of basis functions without overlapping on the multi-level spline space. Transferring these multi-level splines into B\'ezier elements representation facilitates straightforward incorporation into existing finite element (FE) codes. By separating the multi-level extraction of the THB-splines from the standard B\'ezier extraction, a more general independent framework applicable to any sequence of nested spaces is created. The operators for the multi-level structure of THB-splines and the operators of B\'ezier extraction are constructed in a local approach. Adjusting the operators for the multi-level structure from an element point of view and multiplying with the B\'ezier extraction operators of those elements, a direct map between B\'ezier elements and a hierarchical structure is obtained. The presented implementation involves the use of an open-source Octave/MATLAB isogeometric analysis (IGA) code called GeoPDEs. A basic Poisson problem is presented to investigate the performance of multi-level B\'ezier extraction compared to a standard THB-spline approach.
The forecasting and computation of the stability of chaotic systems from partial observations are tasks for which traditional equation-based methods may not be suitable. In this computational paper, we propose data-driven methods to (i) infer the dynamics of unobserved (hidden) chaotic variables (full-state reconstruction); (ii) time forecast the evolution of the full state; and (iii) infer the stability properties of the full state. The tasks are performed with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are trained with observations (data) limited to only part of the state: (i) the low-to-high resolution LSTM (LH-LSTM), which takes partial observations as training input, and requires access to the full system state when computing the loss; and (ii) the physics-informed LSTM (PI-LSTM), which is designed to combine partial observations with the integral formulation of the dynamical system's evolution equations. First, we derive the Jacobian of the LSTMs. Second, we analyse a chaotic partial differential equation, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS), and the Lorenz-96 system. We show that the proposed networks can forecast the hidden variables, both time-accurately and statistically. The Lyapunov exponents and covariant Lyapunov vectors, which characterize the stability of the chaotic attractors, are correctly inferred from partial observations. Third, the PI-LSTM outperforms the LH-LSTM by successfully reconstructing the hidden chaotic dynamics when the input dimension is smaller or similar to the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. This work opens new opportunities for reconstructing the full state, inferring hidden variables, and computing the stability of chaotic systems from partial data.
Quantization summarizes continuous distributions by calculating a discrete approximation. Among the widely adopted methods for data quantization is Lloyd's algorithm, which partitions the space into Vorono\"i cells, that can be seen as clusters, and constructs a discrete distribution based on their centroids and probabilistic masses. Lloyd's algorithm estimates the optimal centroids in a minimal expected distance sense, but this approach poses significant challenges in scenarios where data evaluation is costly, and relates to rare events. Then, the single cluster associated to no event takes the majority of the probability mass. In this context, a metamodel is required and adapted sampling methods are necessary to increase the precision of the computations on the rare clusters.
In the context of finite sums minimization, variance reduction techniques are widely used to improve the performance of state-of-the-art stochastic gradient methods. Their practical impact is clear, as well as their theoretical properties. Stochastic proximal point algorithms have been studied as an alternative to stochastic gradient algorithms since they are more stable with respect to the choice of the stepsize but a proper variance reduced version is missing. In this work, we propose the first study of variance reduction techniques for stochastic proximal point algorithms. We introduce a stochastic proximal version of SVRG, SAGA, and some of their variants for smooth and convex functions. We provide several convergence results for the iterates and the objective function values. In addition, under the Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz (PL) condition, we obtain linear convergence rates for the iterates and the function values. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proximal variance reduction methods over their gradient counterparts, especially about the stability with respect to the choice of the step size.
A central problem in computational statistics is to convert a procedure for sampling combinatorial from an objects into a procedure for counting those objects, and vice versa. Weconsider sampling problems coming from *Gibbs distributions*, which are probability distributions of the form $\mu^\Omega_\beta(\omega) \propto e^{\beta H(\omega)}$ for $\beta$ in an interval $[\beta_\min, \beta_\max]$ and $H( \omega ) \in \{0 \} \cup [1, n]$. The *partition function* is the normalization factor $Z(\beta)=\sum_{\omega \in\Omega}e^{\beta H(\omega)}$. Two important parameters are the log partition ratio $q = \log \tfrac{Z(\beta_\max)}{Z(\beta_\min)}$ and the vector of counts $c_x = |H^{-1}(x)|$. Our first result is an algorithm to estimate the counts $c_x$ using roughly $\tilde O( \frac{q}{\epsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and $\tilde O( \frac{n^2}{\epsilon^2} )$ samples for integer-valued distributions (ignoring some second-order terms and parameters). We show this is optimal up to logarithmic factors. We illustrate with improved algorithms for counting connected subgraphs and perfect matchings in a graph. We develop a key subroutine for global estimation of the partition function. Specifically, we produce a data structure to estimate $Z(\beta)$ for \emph{all} values $\beta$, without further samples. Constructing the data structure requires $O(\frac{q \log n}{\epsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and $O(\frac{n^2 \log n}{\epsilon^2} + n \log q)$ samples for integer-valued distributions. This improves over a prior algorithm of Kolmogorov (2018) which computes the single point estimate $Z(\beta_\max)$ using $\tilde O(\frac{q}{\epsilon^2})$ samples. We also show that this complexity is optimal as a function of $n$ and $q$ up to logarithmic terms.