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In Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO), only the hyperparameter configuration with the best performance is chosen after performing several trials, then, discarding the effort of training all the models with every hyperparameter configuration trial and performing an ensemble of all them. This ensemble consists of simply averaging the model predictions or weighting the models by a certain probability. Recently, other more sophisticated ensemble strategies, such as the Caruana method or the stacking strategy has been proposed. On the one hand, the Caruana method performs well in HPO ensemble, since it is not affected by the effects of multicollinearity, which is prevalent in HPO. It just computes the average over a subset of predictions with replacement. But it does not benefit from the generalization power of a learning process. On the other hand, stacking methods include a learning procedure since a meta-learner is required to perform the ensemble. Yet, one hardly finds advice about which meta-learner is adequate. Besides, some meta-learners may suffer from the effects of multicollinearity or need to be tuned to reduce them. This paper explores meta-learners for stacking ensemble in HPO, free of hyperparameter tuning, able to reduce the effects of multicollinearity and considering the ensemble learning process generalization power. At this respect, the boosting strategy seems promising as a stacking meta-learner. In fact, it completely removes the effects of multicollinearity. This paper also proposes an implicit regularization in the classical boosting method and a novel non-parametric stop criterion suitable only for boosting and specifically designed for HPO. The synergy between these two improvements over boosting exhibits competitive and promising predictive power performance compared to other existing meta-learners and ensemble approaches for HPO other than the stacking ensemble.

Most of the existing Mendelian randomization (MR) methods are limited by the assumption of linear causality between exposure and outcome, and the development of new non-linear MR methods is highly desirable. We introduce two-stage prediction estimation and control function estimation from econometrics to MR and extend them to non-linear causality. We give conditions for parameter identification and theoretically prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimates. We compare the two methods theoretically under both linear and non-linear causality. We also extend the control function estimation to a more flexible semi-parametric framework without detailed parametric specifications of causality. Extensive simulations numerically corroborate our theoretical results. Application to UK Biobank data reveals non-linear causal relationships between sleep duration and systolic/diastolic blood pressure.

This study introduces a two-scale Graph Neural Operator (GNO), namely, LatticeGraphNet (LGN), designed as a surrogate model for costly nonlinear finite-element simulations of three-dimensional latticed parts and structures. LGN has two networks: LGN-i, learning the reduced dynamics of lattices, and LGN-ii, learning the mapping from the reduced representation onto the tetrahedral mesh. LGN can predict deformation for arbitrary lattices, therefore the name operator. Our approach significantly reduces inference time while maintaining high accuracy for unseen simulations, establishing the use of GNOs as efficient surrogate models for evaluating mechanical responses of lattices and structures.

A mesh motion model based on deep operator networks is presented. The model is trained on and evaluated against a biharmonic mesh motion model on a fluid-structure interaction benchmark problem and further evaluated in a setting where biharmonic mesh motion fails. The performance of the proposed mesh motion model is comparable to the biharmonic mesh motion on the test problems.

In this paper, we introduce a general constructive method to compute solutions of initial value problems of semilinear parabolic partial differential equations via semigroup theory and computer-assisted proofs. Once a numerical candidate for the solution is obtained via a finite dimensional projection, Chebyshev series expansions are used to solve the linearized equations about the approximation from which a solution map operator is constructed. Using the solution operator (which exists from semigroup theory), we define an infinite dimensional contraction operator whose unique fixed point together with its rigorous bounds provide the local inclusion of the solution. Applying this technique for multiple time steps leads to constructive proofs of existence of solutions over long time intervals. As applications, we study the 3D/2D Swift-Hohenberg, where we combine our method with explicit constructions of trapping regions to prove global existence of solutions of initial value problems converging asymptotically to nontrivial equilibria. A second application consists of the 2D Ohta-Kawasaki equation, providing a framework for handling derivatives in nonlinear terms.

Using validated numerical methods, interval arithmetic and Taylor models, we propose a certified predictor-corrector loop for tracking zeros of polynomial systems with a parameter. We provide a Rust implementation which shows tremendous improvement over existing software for certified path tracking.

In this work, we examined how fact-checkers prioritize which claims to inspect for further investigation and publishing, and what tools may assist them in their efforts. Specifically, through a series of interviews with 23 professional fact-checkers from around the world, we validated that harm assessment is a central component of how fact-checkers triage their work. First, we clarify what aspects of misinformation they considered to create urgency or importance. These often revolved around the potential for the claim to harm others. We also clarify the processes behind collective fact-checking decisions and gather suggestions for tools that could help with these processes. In addition, to address the needs articulated by these fact-checkers and others, we present a five-dimension framework of questions to help fact-checkers negotiate the priority of claims. Our FABLE Framework of Misinformation Harms incorporates five dimensions of magnitude -- (social) Fragmentation, Actionability, Believability, Likelihood of spread, and Exploitativeness -- that can help determine the potential urgency of a specific message or post when considering misinformation as harm. This effort was further validated by additional interviews with expert fact-checkers. The result is a questionnaire, a practical and conceptual tool to support fact-checkers and other content moderators as they make strategic decisions to prioritize their efforts.

In this paper, we provide an analysis of a recently proposed multicontinuum homogenization technique. The analysis differs from those used in classical homogenization methods for several reasons. First, the cell problems in multicontinuum homogenization use constraint problems and can not be directly substituted into the differential operator. Secondly, the problem contains high contrast that remains in the homogenized problem. The homogenized problem averages the microstructure while containing the small parameter. In this analysis, we first based on our previous techniques, CEM-GMsFEM, to define a CEM-downscaling operator that maps the multicontinuum quantities to an approximated microscopic solution. Following the regularity assumption of the multicontinuum quantities, we construct a downscaling operator and the homogenized multicontinuum equations using the information of linear approximation of the multicontinuum quantities. The error analysis is given by the residual estimate of the homogenized equations and the well-posedness assumption of the homogenized equations.

In this work we demonstrate that SVD-based model reduction techniques known for ordinary differential equations, such as the proper orthogonal decomposition, can be extended to stochastic differential equations in order to reduce the computational cost arising from both the high dimension of the considered stochastic system and the large number of independent Monte Carlo runs. We also extend the proper symplectic decomposition method to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, both with and without external forcing, and argue that preserving the underlying symplectic or variational structures results in more accurate and stable solutions that conserve energy better than when the non-geometric approach is used. We validate our proposed techniques with numerical experiments for a semi-discretization of the stochastic nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation and the Kubo oscillator.

An important problem in project management is determining ways to distribute amongst activities the costs that are incurred when a project is delayed because some activities end later than expected. In this study, we address this problem in stochastic projects, where the durations of activities are unknown but their corresponding probability distributions are known. We propose and characterise an allocation rule based on the Shapley value, illustrate its behaviour by using examples, and analyse features of its calculation for large problems.