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With increasing interest in adaptive clinical trial designs, challenges are present to drug supply chain management which may offset the benefit of adaptive designs. Thus, it is necessary to develop an optimization tool to facilitate the decision making and analysis of drug supply chain planning. The challenges include the uncertainty of maximum drug supply needed, the shifting of supply requirement, and rapid availability of new supply at decision points. In this paper, statistical simulations are designed to optimize the pre-study medication supply strategy and monitor ongoing drug supply using real-time data collected with the progress of study. Particle swarm algorithm is applied when performing optimization, where feature extraction is implemented to reduce dimensionality and save computational cost.

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Psychological stress detection is an important task for mental healthcare research, but there has been little prior work investigating the effectiveness of psychological stress models on minority individuals, who are especially vulnerable to poor mental health outcomes. In this work, we use the related task of minority stress detection to evaluate the ability of psychological stress models to understand the language of sexual and gender minorities. We find that traditional psychological stress models underperform on minority stress detection, and we propose using emotion-infused models to reduce that performance disparity. We further demonstrate that multi-task psychological stress models outperform the current state-of-the-art for minority stress detection without directly training on minority stress data. We provide explanatory analysis showing that minority communities have different distributions of emotions than the general population and that emotion-infused models improve the performance of stress models on underrepresented groups because of their effectiveness in low-data environments, and we propose that integrating emotions may benefit underrepresented groups in other mental health detection tasks.

Data augmentation methods are commonly integrated into the training of anomaly detection models. Previous approaches have primarily focused on replicating real-world anomalies or enhancing diversity, without considering that the standard of anomaly varies across different classes, potentially leading to a biased training distribution.This paper analyzes crucial traits of simulated anomalies that contribute to the training of reconstructive networks and condenses them into several methods, thus creating a comprehensive framework by selectively utilizing appropriate combinations.Furthermore, we integrate this framework with a reconstruction-based approach and concurrently propose a split training strategy that alleviates the issue of overfitting while avoiding introducing interference to the reconstruction process. The evaluations conducted on the MVTec anomaly detection dataset demonstrate that our method outperforms the previous state-of-the-art approach, particularly in terms of object classes. To evaluate generalizability, we generate a simulated dataset comprising anomalies with diverse characteristics since the original test samples only include specific types of anomalies and may lead to biased evaluations. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach exhibits promising potential for generalizing effectively to various unforeseen anomalies encountered in real-world scenarios.

We consider a panel data analysis to examine the heterogeneity in treatment effects with respect to a pre-treatment covariate of interest in the staggered difference-in-differences setting of Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021). Under standard identification conditions, a doubly robust estimand conditional on the covariate identifies the group-time conditional average treatment effect given the covariate. Focusing on the case of a continuous covariate, we propose a three-step estimation procedure based on nonparametric local polynomial regressions and parametric estimation methods. Using uniformly valid distributional approximation results for empirical processes and multiplier bootstrapping, we develop doubly robust inference methods to construct uniform confidence bands for the group-time conditional average treatment effect function. The accompanying R package didhetero allows for easy implementation of the proposed methods.

There are a number of available methods for selecting whom to prioritize for treatment, including ones based on treatment effect estimation, risk scoring, and hand-crafted rules. We propose rank-weighted average treatment effect (RATE) metrics as a simple and general family of metrics for comparing and testing the quality of treatment prioritization rules. RATE metrics are agnostic as to how the prioritization rules were derived, and only assess how well they identify individuals that benefit the most from treatment. We define a family of RATE estimators and prove a central limit theorem that enables asymptotically exact inference in a wide variety of randomized and observational study settings. RATE metrics subsume a number of existing metrics, including the Qini coefficient, and our analysis directly yields inference methods for these metrics. We showcase RATE in the context of a number of applications, including optimal targeting of aspirin to stroke patients.

Robust uncertainty estimations are necessary in safety-critical applications of Deep Learning. One such example is the semantic segmentation of medical images, whilst deep-learning approaches have high performance in such tasks they lack interpretability as they give no indication of their confidence when making classification decisions. Robust and interpretable segmentation is a critical first stage in automatically screening for pathologies hence the optimal solution is one which can provide high accuracy but also capture the underlying uncertainty. In this work, we present an uncertainty-aware segmentation model, BA U-Net, for use on MRI data that incorporates Bayesian Neural Networks and Attention Mechanisms to provide accurate and interpretable segmentations. We evaluated our model on the publicly available BraTS 2020 dataset using F1 Score and Intersection Over Union (IoU) as evaluation metrics.

In this evolving era of machine learning security, membership inference attacks have emerged as a potent threat to the confidentiality of sensitive data. In this attack, adversaries aim to determine whether a particular point was used during the training of a target model. This paper proposes a new method to gauge a data point's membership in a model's training set. Instead of correlating loss with membership, as is traditionally done, we have leveraged the fact that training examples generally exhibit higher confidence values when classified into their actual class. During training, the model is essentially being 'fit' to the training data and might face particular difficulties in generalization to unseen data. This asymmetry leads to the model achieving higher confidence on the training data as it exploits the specific patterns and noise present in the training data. Our proposed approach leverages the confidence values generated by the machine learning model. These confidence values provide a probabilistic measure of the model's certainty in its predictions and can further be used to infer the membership of a given data point. Additionally, we also introduce another variant of our method that allows us to carry out this attack without knowing the ground truth(true class) of a given data point, thus offering an edge over existing label-dependent attack methods.

Counterfactuals can offer valuable insights by answering what would have been observed under altered circumstances, conditional on a factual observation. Whereas the classical interventional interpretation of counterfactuals has been studied extensively, backtracking constitutes a less studied alternative the backtracking principle has emerged as an alternative philosophy where all causal laws are kept intact. In the present work, we introduce a practical method for computing backtracking counterfactuals in structural causal models that consist of deep generative components. To this end, we impose conditions on the structural assignments that enable the generation of counterfactuals by solving a tractable constrained optimization problem in the structured latent space of a causal model. Our formulation also facilitates a comparison with methods in the field of counterfactual explanations. Compared to these, our method represents a versatile, modular and causally compliant alternative. We demonstrate these properties experimentally on a modified version of MNIST and CelebA.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

Benefit from the quick development of deep learning techniques, salient object detection has achieved remarkable progresses recently. However, there still exists following two major challenges that hinder its application in embedded devices, low resolution output and heavy model weight. To this end, this paper presents an accurate yet compact deep network for efficient salient object detection. More specifically, given a coarse saliency prediction in the deepest layer, we first employ residual learning to learn side-output residual features for saliency refinement, which can be achieved with very limited convolutional parameters while keep accuracy. Secondly, we further propose reverse attention to guide such side-output residual learning in a top-down manner. By erasing the current predicted salient regions from side-output features, the network can eventually explore the missing object parts and details which results in high resolution and accuracy. Experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach compares favorably against state-of-the-art methods, and with advantages in terms of simplicity, efficiency (45 FPS) and model size (81 MB).

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.

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