Decision making or scientific discovery pipelines such as job hiring and drug discovery often involve multiple stages: before any resource-intensive step, there is often an initial screening that uses predictions from a machine learning model to shortlist a few candidates from a large pool. We study screening procedures that aim to select candidates whose unobserved outcomes exceed user-specified values. We develop a method that wraps around any prediction model to produce a subset of candidates while controlling the proportion of falsely selected units. Building upon the conformal inference framework, our method first constructs p-values that quantify the statistical evidence for large outcomes; it then determines the shortlist by comparing the p-values to a threshold introduced in the multiple testing literature. In many cases, the procedure selects candidates whose predictions are above a data-dependent threshold. We demonstrate the empirical performance of our method via simulations, and apply it to job hiring and drug discovery datasets.
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Natural language prompts have been shown to facilitate cross-task generalization for large language models. However, with no or limited labeled examples, the cross-task performance is highly sensitive to the choice of prompts, while selecting a high-performing prompt is challenging given the scarcity of labels. To address the issue, we propose a Zero-Label Prompt Selection (ZPS) method that selects prompts without any labeled data or gradient update. Specifically, given the candidate human-written prompts for a task, ZPS labels a set of unlabeled data with a prompt ensemble and uses the pseudo-labels for prompt selection. Experiments show that ZPS improves over prior methods by a sizeable margin in zero-label performance. We also extend ZPS to a few-shot setting and show its advantages over strong baselines such as prompt tuning and model tuning.
The ability to dynamically adapt neural networks to newly-available data without performance deterioration would revolutionize deep learning applications. Streaming learning (i.e., learning from one data example at a time) has the potential to enable such real-time adaptation, but current approaches i) freeze a majority of network parameters during streaming and ii) are dependent upon offline, base initialization procedures over large subsets of data, which damages performance and limits applicability. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose Cold Start Streaming Learning (CSSL), a simple, end-to-end approach for streaming learning with deep networks that uses a combination of replay and data augmentation to avoid catastrophic forgetting. Because CSSL updates all model parameters during streaming, the algorithm is capable of beginning streaming from a random initialization, making base initialization optional. Going further, the algorithm's simplicity allows theoretical convergence guarantees to be derived using analysis of the Neural Tangent Random Feature (NTRF). In experiments, we find that CSSL outperforms existing baselines for streaming learning in experiments on CIFAR100, ImageNet, and Core50 datasets. Additionally, we propose a novel multi-task streaming learning setting and show that CSSL performs favorably in this domain. Put simply, CSSL performs well and demonstrates that the complicated, multi-step training pipelines adopted by most streaming methodologies can be replaced with a simple, end-to-end learning approach without sacrificing performance.
Text-based games present a unique class of sequential decision making problem in which agents interact with a partially observable, simulated environment via actions and observations conveyed through natural language. Such observations typically include instructions that, in a reinforcement learning (RL) setting, can directly or indirectly guide a player towards completing reward-worthy tasks. In this work, we study the ability of RL agents to follow such instructions. We conduct experiments that show that the performance of state-of-the-art text-based game agents is largely unaffected by the presence or absence of such instructions, and that these agents are typically unable to execute tasks to completion. To further study and address the task of instruction following, we equip RL agents with an internal structured representation of natural language instructions in the form of Linear Temporal Logic (LTL), a formal language that is increasingly used for temporally extended reward specification in RL. Our framework both supports and highlights the benefit of understanding the temporal semantics of instructions and in measuring progress towards achievement of such a temporally extended behaviour. Experiments with 500+ games in TextWorld demonstrate the superior performance of our approach.
In many applications, it is of interest to identify a parsimonious set of features, or panel, from multiple candidates that achieves a desired level of performance in predicting a response. This task is often complicated in practice by missing data arising from the sampling design or other random mechanisms. Most recent work on variable selection in missing data contexts relies in some part on a finite-dimensional statistical model, e.g., a generalized or penalized linear model. In cases where this model is misspecified, the selected variables may not all be truly scientifically relevant and can result in panels with suboptimal classification performance. To address this limitation, we propose a nonparametric variable selection algorithm combined with multiple imputation to develop flexible panels in the presence of missing-at-random data. We outline strategies based on the proposed algorithm that achieve control of commonly used error rates. Through simulations, we show that our proposal has good operating characteristics and results in panels with higher classification and variable selection performance compared to several existing penalized regression approaches in cases where a generalized linear model is misspecified. Finally, we use the proposed method to develop biomarker panels for separating pancreatic cysts with differing malignancy potential in a setting where complicated missingness in the biomarkers arose due to limited specimen volumes.
Recent advances in large-scale pre-training provide large models with the potential to learn knowledge from the raw text. It is thus natural to ask whether it is possible to leverage these large models as knowledge bases for downstream tasks. In this work, we answer the aforementioned question in unsupervised knowledge-grounded conversation. We explore various methods that best elicit knowledge from large models. Our human study indicates that, though hallucinations exist, large models post the unique advantage of being able to output common sense and summarize facts that cannot be directly retrieved from the search engine. To better exploit such generated knowledge in dialogue generation, we treat the generated knowledge as a noisy knowledge source and propose the posterior-based reweighing as well as the noisy training strategy. Empirical results on two benchmarks show advantages over the state-of-the-art methods.
Embodied Instruction Following (EIF) studies how mobile manipulator robots should be controlled to accomplish long-horizon tasks specified by natural language instructions. While most research on EIF are conducted in simulators, the ultimate goal of the field is to deploy the agents in real life. As such, it is important to minimize the data cost required for training an agent, to help the transition from sim to real. However, many studies only focus on the performance and overlook the data cost -- modules that require separate training on extra data are often introduced without a consideration on deployability. In this work, we propose FILM++ which extends the existing work FILM with modifications that do not require extra data. While all data-driven modules are kept constant, FILM++ more than doubles FILM's performance. Furthermore, we propose Prompter, which replaces FILM++'s semantic search module with language model prompting. Unlike FILM++'s implementation that requires training on extra sets of data, no training is needed for our prompting based implementation while achieving better or at least comparable performance. Prompter achieves 42.64% and 45.72% on the ALFRED benchmark with high-level instructions only and with step-by-step instructions, respectively, outperforming the previous state of the art by 6.57% and 10.31%.
This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant log-volatility terms. Thus, this formulation allows to distinguish between spatial and temporal interactions, while each location may have a different volatility level. We study the statistical properties of an outcome variable under this process and show that it introduces spatial dependence in the outcome variable. Further, we present a Bayesian estimation procedure based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using a suitable data transformation. After providing simulation evidence on the proposed Bayesian estimator's performance, we apply the model in a highly relevant field, namely environmental risk modeling. Even though there are only a few empirical studies on environmental risks, previous literature undoubtedly demonstrated the importance of climate variation studies. For example, for local air quality in Northern Italy in 2021, we show pronounced spatial and temporal spillovers and larger uncertainties/risks during the winter season compared to the summer season.
Ghosting artifacts, motion blur, and low fidelity in highlight are the main challenges in High Dynamic Range (HDR) imaging from multiple Low Dynamic Range (LDR) images. These issues come from using the medium-exposed image as the reference frame in previous methods. To deal with them, we propose to use the under-exposed image as the reference to avoid these issues. However, the heavy noise in dark regions of the under-exposed image becomes a new problem. Therefore, we propose a joint HDR and denoising pipeline, containing two sub-networks: (i) a pre-denoising network (PreDNNet) to adaptively denoise input LDRs by exploiting exposure priors; (ii) a pyramid cascading fusion network (PCFNet), introducing an attention mechanism and cascading structure in a multi-scale manner. To further leverage these two paradigms, we propose a selective and joint HDR and denoising (SJ-HD$^2$R) imaging framework, utilizing scenario-specific priors to conduct the path selection with an accuracy of more than 93.3$\%$. We create the first joint HDR and denoising benchmark dataset, which contains a variety of challenging HDR and denoising scenes and supports the switching of the reference image. Extensive experiment results show that our method achieves superior performance to previous methods.
Recently pre-trained language representation models such as BERT have shown great success when fine-tuned on downstream tasks including information retrieval (IR). However, pre-training objectives tailored for ad-hoc retrieval have not been well explored. In this paper, we propose Pre-training with Representative wOrds Prediction (PROP) for ad-hoc retrieval. PROP is inspired by the classical statistical language model for IR, specifically the query likelihood model, which assumes that the query is generated as the piece of text representative of the "ideal" document. Based on this idea, we construct the representative words prediction (ROP) task for pre-training. Given an input document, we sample a pair of word sets according to the document language model, where the set with higher likelihood is deemed as more representative of the document. We then pre-train the Transformer model to predict the pairwise preference between the two word sets, jointly with the Masked Language Model (MLM) objective. By further fine-tuning on a variety of representative downstream ad-hoc retrieval tasks, PROP achieves significant improvements over baselines without pre-training or with other pre-training methods. We also show that PROP can achieve exciting performance under both the zero- and low-resource IR settings. The code and pre-trained models are available at //github.com/Albert-Ma/PROP.
Image segmentation is still an open problem especially when intensities of the interested objects are overlapped due to the presence of intensity inhomogeneity (also known as bias field). To segment images with intensity inhomogeneities, a bias correction embedded level set model is proposed where Inhomogeneities are Estimated by Orthogonal Primary Functions (IEOPF). In the proposed model, the smoothly varying bias is estimated by a linear combination of a given set of orthogonal primary functions. An inhomogeneous intensity clustering energy is then defined and membership functions of the clusters described by the level set function are introduced to rewrite the energy as a data term of the proposed model. Similar to popular level set methods, a regularization term and an arc length term are also included to regularize and smooth the level set function, respectively. The proposed model is then extended to multichannel and multiphase patterns to segment colourful images and images with multiple objects, respectively. It has been extensively tested on both synthetic and real images that are widely used in the literature and public BrainWeb and IBSR datasets. Experimental results and comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that advantages of the proposed model in terms of bias correction and segmentation accuracy.
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