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It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to compute the posterior marginal probabilities of models and individual covariates. This allows performing Bayesian model selection and model averaging. For large sample sizes, even the Laplace approximation becomes computationally challenging because the optimisation routine involved needs to evaluate the likelihood on the full set of data in multiple iterations. As a consequence, the algorithm is not scalable for large datasets. To address this problem, we suggest using a version of a popular batch stochastic gradient descent (BSGD) algorithm for estimating the marginal likelihood of a GLM by subsampling from the data. We further combine the algorithm with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods for Bayesian model selection and provide some theoretical results on the convergence of the estimates. Finally, we report results from experiments illustrating the performance of the proposed algorithm.

In black-box function optimization, we need to consider not only controllable design variables but also uncontrollable stochastic environment variables. In such cases, it is necessary to solve the optimization problem by taking into account the uncertainty of the environmental variables. Chance-constrained (CC) problem, the problem of maximizing the expected value under a certain level of constraint satisfaction probability, is one of the practically important problems in the presence of environmental variables. In this study, we consider distributionally robust CC (DRCC) problem and propose a novel DRCC Bayesian optimization method for the case where the distribution of the environmental variables cannot be precisely specified. We show that the proposed method can find an arbitrary accurate solution with high probability in a finite number of trials, and confirm the usefulness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.

We are interested in privatizing an approximate posterior inference algorithm called Expectation Propagation (EP). EP approximates the posterior by iteratively refining approximations to the local likelihoods, and is known to provide better posterior uncertainties than those by variational inference (VI). However, EP needs a large memory to maintain all local approximates associated with each datapoint in the training data. To overcome this challenge, stochastic expectation propagation (SEP) considers a single unique local factor that captures the average effect of each likelihood term to the posterior and refines it in a way analogous to EP. In terms of privacy, SEP is more tractable than EP because at each refining step of a factor, the remaining factors are fixed and do not depend on other datapoints as in EP, which makes the sensitivity analysis straightforward. We provide a theoretical analysis of the privacy-accuracy trade-off in the posterior estimates under our method, called differentially private stochastic expectation propagation (DP-SEP). Furthermore, we demonstrate the performance of our DP-SEP algorithm evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets in terms of the quality of posterior estimates at different levels of guaranteed privacy.

Optimizing multiple, non-preferential objectives for mixed-variable, expensive black-box problems is important in many areas of engineering and science. The expensive, noisy black-box nature of these problems makes them ideal candidates for Bayesian optimization (BO). Mixed-variable and multi-objective problems, however, are a challenge due to the BO's underlying smooth Gaussian process surrogate model. Current multi-objective BO algorithms cannot deal with mixed-variable problems. We present MixMOBO, the first mixed variable multi-objective Bayesian optimization framework for such problems. Using a genetic algorithm to sample the surrogate surface, optimal Pareto-fronts for multi-objective, mixed-variable design spaces can be found efficiently while ensuring diverse solutions. The method is sufficiently flexible to incorporate many different kernels and acquisition functions, including those that were developed for mixed-variable or multi-objective problems by other authors. We also present HedgeMO, a modified Hedge strategy that uses a portfolio of acquisition functions in multi-objective problems. We present a new acquisition function SMC. We show that MixMOBO performs well against other mixed-variable algorithms on synthetic problems. We apply MixMOBO to the real-world design of an architected material and show that our optimal design, which was experimentally fabricated and validated, has a normalized strain energy density $10^4$ times greater than existing structures.

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-world problem.

In model-based reinforcement learning for safety-critical control systems, it is important to formally certify system properties (e.g., safety, stability) under the learned controller. However, as existing methods typically apply formal verification \emph{after} the controller has been learned, it is sometimes difficult to obtain any certificate, even after many iterations between learning and verification. To address this challenge, we propose a framework that jointly conducts reinforcement learning and formal verification by formulating and solving a novel bilevel optimization problem, which is differentiable by the gradients from the value function and certificates. Experiments on a variety of examples demonstrate the significant advantages of our framework over the model-based stochastic value gradient (SVG) method and the model-free proximal policy optimization (PPO) method in finding feasible controllers with barrier functions and Lyapunov functions that ensure system safety and stability.

The conventional approach to data-driven inversion framework is based on Gaussian statistics that presents serious difficulties, especially in the presence of outliers in the measurements. In this work, we present maximum likelihood estimators associated with generalized Gaussian distributions in the context of R\'enyi, Tsallis and Kaniadakis statistics. In this regard, we analytically analyse the outlier-resistance of each proposal through the so-called influence function. In this way, we formulate inverse problems by constructing objective functions linked to the maximum likelihood estimators. To demonstrate the robustness of the generalized methodologies, we consider an important geophysical inverse problem with high noisy data with spikes. The results reveal that the best data inversion performance occurs when the entropic index from each generalized statistic is associated with objective functions proportional to the inverse of the error amplitude. We argue that in such a limit the three approaches are resistant to outliers and are also equivalent, which suggests a lower computational cost for the inversion process due to the reduction of numerical simulations to be performed and the fast convergence of the optimization process.

Most modern deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are motivated by either the general policy improvement (GPI) or trust-region learning (TRL) frameworks. However, algorithms that strictly respect these theoretical frameworks have proven unscalable. Surprisingly, the only known scalable algorithms violate the GPI/TRL assumptions, e.g. due to required regularisation or other heuristics. The current explanation of their empirical success is essentially by "analogy": they are deemed approximate adaptations of theoretically sound methods. Unfortunately, studies have shown that in practice these algorithms differ greatly from their conceptual ancestors. In contrast, in this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework, named Mirror Learning, which provides theoretical guarantees to a large class of algorithms, including TRPO and PPO. While the latter two exploit the flexibility of our framework, GPI and TRL fit in merely as pathologically restrictive or impractical corner cases thereof. This suggests that the empirical performance of state-of-the-art methods is a direct consequence of their theoretical properties, rather than of aforementioned approximate analogies. Mirror learning sets us free to boldly explore novel, theoretically sound RL algorithms, a thus far uncharted wonderland.

The difficulty in specifying rewards for many real-world problems has led to an increased focus on learning rewards from human feedback, such as demonstrations. However, there are often many different reward functions that explain the human feedback, leaving agents with uncertainty over what the true reward function is. While most policy optimization approaches handle this uncertainty by optimizing for expected performance, many applications demand risk-averse behavior. We derive a novel policy gradient-style robust optimization approach, PG-BROIL, that optimizes a soft-robust objective that balances expected performance and risk. To the best of our knowledge, PG-BROIL is the first policy optimization algorithm robust to a distribution of reward hypotheses which can scale to continuous MDPs. Results suggest that PG-BROIL can produce a family of behaviors ranging from risk-neutral to risk-averse and outperforms state-of-the-art imitation learning algorithms when learning from ambiguous demonstrations by hedging against uncertainty, rather than seeking to uniquely identify the demonstrator's reward function.

The advent of deep neural networks pre-trained via language modeling tasks has spurred a number of successful applications in natural language processing. This work explores one such popular model, BERT, in the context of document ranking. We propose two variants, called monoBERT and duoBERT, that formulate the ranking problem as pointwise and pairwise classification, respectively. These two models are arranged in a multi-stage ranking architecture to form an end-to-end search system. One major advantage of this design is the ability to trade off quality against latency by controlling the admission of candidates into each pipeline stage, and by doing so, we are able to find operating points that offer a good balance between these two competing metrics. On two large-scale datasets, MS MARCO and TREC CAR, experiments show that our model produces results that are either at or comparable to the state of the art. Ablation studies show the contributions of each component and characterize the latency/quality tradeoff space.