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We present an alternative to reweighting techniques for modifying distributions to account for a desired change in an underlying conditional distribution, as is often needed to correct for mis-modelling in a simulated sample. We employ conditional normalizing flows to learn the full conditional probability distribution from which we sample new events for conditional values drawn from the target distribution to produce the desired, altered distribution. In contrast to common reweighting techniques, this procedure is independent of binning choice and does not rely on an estimate of the density ratio between two distributions. In several toy examples we show that normalizing flows outperform reweighting approaches to match the distribution of the target.We demonstrate that the corrected distribution closes well with the ground truth, and a statistical uncertainty on the training dataset can be ascertained with bootstrapping. In our examples, this leads to a statistical precision up to three times greater than using reweighting techniques with identical sample sizes for the source and target distributions. We also explore an application in the context of high energy particle physics.

We consider sequential state and parameter learning in state-space models with intractable state transition and observation processes. By exploiting low-rank tensor-train (TT) decompositions, we propose new sequential learning methods for joint parameter and state estimation under the Bayesian framework. Our key innovation is the introduction of scalable function approximation tools such as TT for recursively learning the sequentially updated posterior distributions. The function approximation perspective of our methods offers tractable error analysis and potentially alleviates the particle degeneracy faced by many particle-based methods. In addition to the new insights into algorithmic design, our methods complement conventional particle-based methods. Our TT-based approximations naturally define conditional Knothe--Rosenblatt (KR) rearrangements that lead to filtering, smoothing and path estimation accompanying our sequential learning algorithms, which open the door to removing potential approximation bias. We also explore several preconditioning techniques based on either linear or nonlinear KR rearrangements to enhance the approximation power of TT for practical problems. We demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of our proposed methods on several state-space models, in which our methods achieve state-of-the-art estimation accuracy and computational performance.

Purpose: The importance of robust proton treatment planning to mitigate the impact of uncertainty is well understood. However, its computational cost grows with the number of uncertainty scenarios, prolonging the treatment planning process. We developed a fast and scalable distributed optimization platform that parallelizes this computation over the scenarios. Methods: We modeled the robust proton treatment planning problem as a weighted least-squares problem. To solve it, we employed an optimization technique called the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers with Barzilai-Borwein step size (ADMM-BB). We reformulated the problem in such a way as to split the main problem into smaller subproblems, one for each proton therapy uncertainty scenario. The subproblems can be solved in parallel, allowing the computational load to be distributed across multiple processors (e.g., CPU threads/cores). We evaluated ADMM-BB on four head-and-neck proton therapy patients, each with 13 scenarios accounting for 3 mm setup and 3:5% range uncertainties. We then compared the performance of ADMM-BB with projected gradient descent (PGD) applied to the same problem. Results: For each patient, ADMM-BB generated a robust proton treatment plan that satisfied all clinical criteria with comparable or better dosimetric quality than the plan generated by PGD. However, ADMM-BB's total runtime averaged about 6 to 7 times faster. This speedup increased with the number of scenarios. Conclusion: ADMM-BB is a powerful distributed optimization method that leverages parallel processing platforms, such as multi-core CPUs, GPUs, and cloud servers, to accelerate the computationally intensive work of robust proton treatment planning. This results in 1) a shorter treatment planning process and 2) the ability to consider more uncertainty scenarios, which improves plan quality.

Fairness-aware machine learning has garnered significant attention in recent years because of extensive use of machine learning in sensitive applications like judiciary systems. Various heuristics, and optimization frameworks have been proposed to enforce fairness in classification \cite{del2020review} where the later approaches either provides empirical results or provides fairness guarantee for the exact minimizer of the objective function \cite{celis2019classification}. In modern machine learning, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) type algorithms are almost always used as training algorithms implying that the learned model, and consequently, its fairness properties are random. Hence, especially for crucial applications, it is imperative to construct Confidence Interval (CI) for the fairness of the learned model. In this work we provide CI for test unfairness when a group-fairness-aware, specifically, Disparate Impact (DI), and Disparate Mistreatment (DM) aware linear binary classifier is trained using online SGD-type algorithms. We show that asymptotically a Central Limit Theorem holds for the estimated model parameter of both DI and DM-aware models. We provide online multiplier bootstrap method to estimate the asymptotic covariance to construct online CI. To do so, we extend the known theoretical guarantees shown on the consistency of the online bootstrap method for unconstrained SGD to constrained optimization which could be of independent interest. We illustrate our results on synthetic and real datasets.

Sparse model identification enables nonlinear dynamical system discovery from data. However, the control of false discoveries for sparse model identification is challenging, especially in the low-data and high-noise limit. In this paper, we perform a theoretical study on ensemble sparse model discovery, which shows empirical success in terms of accuracy and robustness to noise. In particular, we analyse the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares estimator. We show that this bootstrapping-based ensembling technique can perform a provably correct variable selection procedure with an exponential convergence rate of the error rate. In addition, we show that the ensemble sparse model discovery method can perform computationally efficient uncertainty estimation, compared to expensive Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods via MCMC. We demonstrate the convergence properties and connection to uncertainty quantification in various numerical studies on synthetic sparse linear regression and sparse model discovery. The experiments on sparse linear regression support that the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares method has better performance for sparse variable selection compared to LASSO, thresholding least-squares, and bootstrapping-based LASSO. In the sparse model discovery experiment, we show that the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares method can provide valid uncertainty quantification, converging to a delta measure centered around the true value with increased sample sizes. Finally, we highlight the improved robustness to hyperparameter selection under shifting noise and sparsity levels of the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares method compared to other sparse regression methods.

The new regulatory framework proposal on Artificial Intelligence (AI) published by the European Commission establishes a new risk-based legal approach. The proposal highlights the need to develop adequate risk assessments for the different uses of AI. This risk assessment should address, among others, the detection and mitigation of bias in AI. In this work we analyze statistical approaches to measure biases in automatic decision-making systems. We focus our experiments in face recognition technologies. We propose a novel way to measure the biases in machine learning models using a statistical approach based on the N-Sigma method. N-Sigma is a popular statistical approach used to validate hypotheses in general science such as physics and social areas and its application to machine learning is yet unexplored. In this work we study how to apply this methodology to develop new risk assessment frameworks based on bias analysis and we discuss the main advantages and drawbacks with respect to other popular statistical tests.

Estimating state of health is a critical function of a battery management system but remains challenging due to the variability of operating conditions and usage requirements of real applications. As a result, techniques based on fitting equivalent circuit models may exhibit inaccuracy at extremes of performance and over long-term ageing, or instability of parameter estimates. Pure data-driven techniques, on the other hand, suffer from lack of generality beyond their training dataset. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining data- and model-driven techniques for battery health estimation. Specifically, we demonstrate a Bayesian data-driven method, Gaussian process regression, to estimate model parameters as functions of states, operating conditions, and lifetime. Computational efficiency is ensured through a recursive approach yielding a unified joint state-parameter estimator that learns parameter dynamics from data and is robust to gaps and varying operating conditions. Results show the efficacy of the method, on both simulated and measured data, including accurate estimates and forecasts of battery capacity and internal resistance. This opens up new opportunities to understand battery ageing in real applications.

Budget management strategies in repeated auctions have received growing attention in online advertising markets. However, previous work on budget management in online bidding mainly focused on second-price auctions. The rapid shift from second-price auctions to first-price auctions for online ads in recent years has motivated the challenging question of how to bid in repeated first-price auctions while controlling budgets. In this work, we study the problem of learning in repeated first-price auctions with budgets. We design a dual-based algorithm that can achieve a near-optimal $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret with full information feedback where the maximum competing bid is always revealed after each auction. We further consider the setting with one-sided information feedback where only the winning bid is revealed after each auction. We show that our modified algorithm can still achieve an $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret with mild assumptions on the bidder's value distribution. Finally, we complement the theoretical results with numerical experiments to confirm the effectiveness of our budget management policy.

Clustered federated Multitask learning is introduced as an efficient technique when data is unbalanced and distributed amongst clients in a non-independent and identically distributed manner. While a similarity metric can provide client groups with specialized models according to their data distribution, this process can be time-consuming because the server needs to capture all data distribution first from all clients to perform the correct clustering. Due to resource and time constraints at the network edge, only a fraction of devices {is} selected every round, necessitating the need for an efficient scheduling technique to address these issues. Thus, this paper introduces a two-phased client selection and scheduling approach to improve the convergence speed while capturing all data distributions. This approach ensures correct clustering and fairness between clients by leveraging bandwidth reuse for participants spent a longer time training their models and exploiting the heterogeneity in the devices to schedule the participants according to their delay. The server then performs the clustering depending on predetermined thresholds and stopping criteria. When a specified cluster approximates a stopping point, the server employs a greedy selection for that cluster by picking the devices with lower delay and better resources. The convergence analysis is provided, showing the relationship between the proposed scheduling approach and the convergence rate of the specialized models to obtain convergence bounds under non-i.i.d. data distribution. We carry out extensive simulations, and the results demonstrate that the proposed algorithms reduce training time and improve the convergence speed while equipping every user with a customized model tailored to its data distribution.

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a methodology that aims to improve the general performance of estimation and prediction by sharing common information among related tasks. In the MTL, there are several assumptions for the relationships and methods to incorporate them. One of the natural assumptions in the practical situation is that tasks are classified into some clusters with their characteristics. For this assumption, the group fused regularization approach performs clustering of the tasks by shrinking the difference among tasks. This enables us to transfer common information within the same cluster. However, this approach also transfers the information between different clusters, which worsens the estimation and prediction. To overcome this problem, we propose an MTL method with a centroid parameter representing a cluster center of the task. Because this model separates parameters into the parameters for regression and the parameters for clustering, we can improve estimation and prediction accuracy for regression coefficient vectors. We show the effectiveness of the proposed method through Monte Carlo simulations and applications to real data.