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State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are obtained. The linear-Gaussian state-space model is widely used, since it allows for exact inference when all model parameters are known, however this is rarely the case. The estimation of these parameters is a very challenging but essential task to perform inference and prediction. In the linear-Gaussian model, the state dynamics are described via a state transition matrix. This model parameter is known to behard to estimate, since it encodes the relationships between the state elements, which are never observed. In many applications, this transition matrix is sparse since not all state components directly affect all other state components. However, most parameter estimation methods do not exploit this feature. In this work we propose SpaRJ, a fully probabilistic Bayesian approach that obtains sparse samples from the posterior distribution of the transition matrix. Our method explores sparsity by traversing a set of models that exhibit differing sparsity patterns in the transition matrix. Moreover, we also design new effective rules to explore transition matrices within the same level of sparsity. This novel methodology has strong theoretical guarantees, and unveils the latent structure of the data generating process, thereby enhancing interpretability. The performance of SpaRJ is showcased in example with dimension 144 in the parameter space, and in a numerical example with real data.

The work of Kalman and Bucy has established a duality between filtering and optimal estimation in the context of time-continuous linear systems. This duality has recently been extended to time-continuous nonlinear systems in terms of an optimization problem constrained by a backward stochastic partial differential equation. Here we revisit this problem from the perspective of appropriate forward-backward stochastic differential equations. This approach sheds new light on the estimation problem and provides a unifying perspective. It is also demonstrated that certain formulations of the estimation problem lead to deterministic formulations similar to the linear Gaussian case as originally investigated by Kalman and Bucy. Finally, optimal control of partially observed diffusion processes is discussed as an application of the newly proposed estimators.

We study statistical/computational tradeoffs for the following density estimation problem: given $k$ distributions $v_1, \ldots, v_k$ over a discrete domain of size $n$, and sampling access to a distribution $p$, identify $v_i$ that is "close" to $p$. Our main result is the first data structure that, given a sublinear (in $n$) number of samples from $p$, identifies $v_i$ in time sublinear in $k$. We also give an improved version of the algorithm of Acharya et al. (2018) that reports $v_i$ in time linear in $k$. The experimental evaluation of the latter algorithm shows that it achieves a significant reduction in the number of operations needed to achieve a given accuracy compared to prior work.

In epidemiological studies, the capture-recapture (CRC) method is a powerful tool that can be used to estimate the number of diseased cases or potentially disease prevalence based on data from overlapping surveillance systems. Estimators derived from log-linear models are widely applied by epidemiologists when analyzing CRC data. The popularity of the log-linear model framework is largely associated with its accessibility and the fact that interaction terms can allow for certain types of dependency among data streams. In this work, we shed new light on significant pitfalls associated with the log-linear model framework in the context of CRC using real data examples and simulation studies. First, we demonstrate that the log-linear model paradigm is highly exclusionary. That is, it can exclude, by design, many possible estimates that are potentially consistent with the observed data. Second, we clarify the ways in which regularly used model selection metrics (e.g., information criteria) are fundamentally deceiving in the effort to select a best model in this setting. By focusing attention on these important cautionary points and on the fundamental untestable dependency assumption made when fitting a log-linear model to CRC data, we hope to improve the quality of and transparency associated with subsequent surveillance-based CRC estimates of case counts.

In multivariate time series analysis, the coherence measures the linear dependency between two-time series at different frequencies. However, real data applications often exhibit nonlinear dependency in the frequency domain. Conventional coherence analysis fails to capture such dependency. The quantile coherence, on the other hand, characterizes nonlinear dependency by defining the coherence at a set of quantile levels based on trigonometric quantile regression. Although quantile coherence is a more powerful tool, its estimation remains challenging due to the high level of noise. This paper introduces a new estimation technique for quantile coherence. The proposed method is semi-parametric, which uses the parametric form of the spectrum of the vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an approximation to the quantile spectral matrix, along with nonparametric smoothing across quantiles. For each fixed quantile level, we obtain the VAR parameters from the quantile periodograms, then, using the Durbin-Levinson algorithm, we calculate the preliminary estimate of quantile coherence using the VAR parameters. Finally, we smooth the preliminary estimate of quantile coherence across quantiles using a nonparametric smoother. Numerical results show that the proposed estimation method outperforms nonparametric methods. We show that quantile coherence-based bivariate time series clustering has advantages over the ordinary VAR coherence. For applications, the identified clusters of financial stocks by quantile coherence with a market benchmark are shown to have an intriguing and more accurate structure of diversified investment portfolios that may be used by investors to make better decisions.

This paper is devoted to studying the semi-supervised sparse statistical inference in a distributed setup. An efficient multi-round distributed debiased estimator, which integrates both labeled and unlabelled data, is developed. We will show that the additional unlabeled data helps to improve the statistical rate of each round of iteration. Our approach offers tailored debiasing methods for $M$-estimation and generalized linear model according to the specific form of the loss function. Our method also applies to a non-smooth loss like absolute deviation loss. Furthermore, our algorithm is computationally efficient since it requires only one estimation of a high-dimensional inverse covariance matrix. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by presenting simulation studies and real data applications that highlight the benefits of incorporating unlabeled data.

We establish sparsity and summability results for coefficient sequences of Wiener-Hermite polynomial chaos expansions of countably-parametric solutions of linear elliptic and parabolic divergence-form partial differential equations with Gaussian random field inputs. The novel proof technique developed here is based on analytic continuation of parametric solutions into the complex domain. It differs from previous works that used bootstrap arguments and induction on the differentiation order of solution derivatives with respect to the parameters. The present holomorphy-based argument allows a unified, ``differentiation-free'' proof of sparsity (expressed in terms of $\ell^p$-summability or weighted $\ell^2$-summability) of sequences of Wiener-Hermite coefficients in polynomial chaos expansions in various scales of function spaces. The analysis also implies corresponding analyticity and sparsity results for posterior densities in Bayesian inverse problems subject to Gaussian priors on uncertain inputs from function spaces. Our results furthermore yield dimension-independent convergence rates of various \emph{constructive} high-dimensional deterministic numerical approximation schemes such as single-level and multi-level versions of Hermite-Smolyak anisotropic sparse-grid interpolation and quadrature in both forward and inverse computational uncertainty quantification.

This paper studies structured node classification on graphs, where the predictions should consider dependencies between the node labels. In particular, we focus on solving the problem for partially labeled graphs where it is essential to incorporate the information in the known label for predicting the unknown labels. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework leveraging the diffusion probabilistic model for structured node classification (DPM-SNC). At the heart of our framework is the extraordinary capability of DPM-SNC to (a) learn a joint distribution over the labels with an expressive reverse diffusion process and (b) make predictions conditioned on the known labels utilizing manifold-constrained sampling. Since the DPMs lack training algorithms for partially labeled data, we design a novel training algorithm to apply DPMs, maximizing a new variational lower bound. We also theoretically analyze how DPMs benefit node classification by enhancing the expressive power of GNNs based on proposing AGG-WL, which is strictly more powerful than the classic 1-WL test. We extensively verify the superiority of our DPM-SNC in diverse scenarios, which include not only the transductive setting on partially labeled graphs but also the inductive setting and unlabeled graphs.

Estimation of the parameters of a 2-dimensional sinusoidal model is a fundamental problem in digital signal processing and time series analysis. In this paper, we propose a robust least absolute deviation (LAD) estimators for parameter estimation. The proposed methodology provides a robust alternative to non-robust estimation techniques like the least squares estimators, in situations where outliers are present in the data or in the presence of heavy tailed noise. We study important asymptotic properties of the LAD estimators and establish the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the LAD estimators of the signal parameters of a 2-dimensional sinusoidal model. We further illustrate the advantage of using LAD estimators over least squares estimators through extensive simulation studies. Data analysis of a 2-dimensional texture data indicates practical applicability of the proposed LAD approach.

We present a generalized FDTD scheme to simulate moving electromagnetic structures with arbitrary space-time configurations. This scheme is a local adaptation and 2+1-dimensional extension of the uniform and 1+1-dimensional scheme recently reported in [1]. The local adaptation, which is allowed by the inherently matched nature of the generalized Yee cell to the conventional Yee cell, extends the range of applicability of the scheme in [1] to moving structures that involve multiple and arbitrary velocity profiles while being fully compatible with conventional absorbing boundary conditions and standard treatments of medium dispersion. We show that a direct application of the conventional FDTD scheme predicts qualitatively correct spectral transitions but quantitatively erroneous scattering amplitudes, we infer from this observation generalized, hybrid - physical and auxiliary (non-physical) - fields that automatically satisfy moving boundary conditions in the laboratory frame, and accordingly establish local update equations based on the related Maxwell's equations and constitutive relations. We finally validate and illustrate the proposed method by three canonical examples - a space-time interface, a space-time wedge and a space-time accelerated interface - whose combination represent arbitrary space-time configurations. The proposed scheme fills an important gap in the open literature on computational electromagnetics and offers an unprecedented, direct solution for moving structures in commercial software platforms.