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A principal hires an agent to work on a long-term project that culminates in a breakthrough or a breakdown. At each time, the agent privately chooses to work or shirk. Working increases the arrival rate of breakthroughs and decreases the arrival rate of breakdowns. To motivate the agent to work, the principal conducts costly inspections. She fires the agent if shirking is detected. We characterize the principal's optimal inspection policy. Periodic inspections are optimal if work primarily generates breakthroughs. Random inspections are optimal if work primarily prevents breakdowns. Crucially, the agent's actions determine his risk attitude over the timing of punishments.

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Openness is critical for the advancement of science. In particular, recent rapid progress in AI has been made possible only by various open-source models, datasets, and libraries. However, this openness also means that technologies can be freely used for socially harmful purposes. Can open-source models or datasets be used for malicious purposes? If so, how easy is it to adapt technology for such goals? Here, we conduct a case study in the legal domain, a realm where individual decisions can have profound social consequences. To this end, we build EVE, a dataset consisting of 200 examples of questions and corresponding answers about criminal activities based on 200 Korean precedents. We found that a widely accepted open-source LLM, which initially refuses to answer unethical questions, can be easily tuned with EVE to provide unethical and informative answers about criminal activities. This implies that although open-source technologies contribute to scientific progress, some care must be taken to mitigate possible malicious use cases. Warning: This paper contains contents that some may find unethical.

We investigate the emergence of periodic behavior in opinion dynamics and its underlying geometry. For this, we use a bounded-confidence model with contrarian agents in a convolution social network. This means that agents adapt their opinions by interacting with their neighbors in a time-varying social network. Being contrarian, the agents are kept from reaching consensus. This is the key feature that allows the emergence of cyclical trends. We show that the systems either converge to nonconsensual equilibrium or are attracted to periodic or quasi-periodic orbits. We bound the dimension of the attractors and the period of cyclical trends. We exhibit instances where each orbit is dense and uniformly distributed within its attractor. We also investigate the case of randomly changing social networks.

Generative models have received a lot of attention in many areas of academia and the industry. Their capabilities span many areas, from the invention of images given a prompt to the generation of concrete code to solve a certain programming issue. These two paradigmatic cases fall within two distinct categories of requirements, ranging from "creativity" to "precision", as characterized by Bing Chat, which employs ChatGPT-4 as its backbone. Visualization practitioners and researchers have wondered to what end one of such systems could accomplish our work in a more efficient way. Several works in the literature have utilized them for the creation of visualizations. And some tools such as Lida, incorporate them as part of their pipeline. Nevertheless, to the authors' knowledge, no systematic approach for testing their capabilities has been published, which includes both extensive and in-depth evaluation. Our goal is to fill that gap with a systematic approach that analyzes three elements: whether Large Language Models are capable of correctly generating a large variety of charts, what libraries they can deal with effectively, and how far we can go to configure individual charts. To achieve this objective, we initially selected a diverse set of charts, which are commonly utilized in data visualization. We then developed a set of generic prompts that could be used to generate them, and analyzed the performance of different LLMs and libraries. The results include both the set of prompts and the data sources, as well as an analysis of the performance with different configurations.

Companies, organizations, and governments across the world are eager to employ so-called 'AI' (artificial intelligence) technology in a broad range of different products and systems. The promise of this cause c\'el\`ebre is that the technologies offer increased automation, efficiency, and productivity - meanwhile, critics sound warnings of illusions of objectivity, pollution of our information ecosystems, and reproduction of biases and discriminatory outcomes. This paper explores patterns of motivation in the general population for trusting (or distrusting) 'AI' systems. Based on a survey with more than 450 respondents from more than 30 different countries (and about 3000 open text answers), this paper presents a qualitative analysis of current opinions and thoughts about 'AI' technology, focusing on reasons for trusting such systems. The different reasons are synthesized into four rationales (lines of reasoning): the Human favoritism rationale, the Black box rationale, the OPSEC rationale, and the 'Wicked world, tame computers' rationale. These rationales provide insights into human motivation for trusting 'AI' which could be relevant for developers and designers of such systems, as well as for scholars developing measures of trust in technological systems.

We prove that black-box variational inference (BBVI) with control variates, particularly the sticking-the-landing (STL) estimator, converges at a geometric (traditionally called "linear") rate under perfect variational family specification. In particular, we prove a quadratic bound on the gradient variance of the STL estimator, one which encompasses misspecified variational families. Combined with previous works on the quadratic variance condition, this directly implies convergence of BBVI with the use of projected stochastic gradient descent. For the projection operator, we consider a domain with triangular scale matrices, which the projection onto is computable in $\Theta(d)$ time, where $d$ is the dimensionality of the target posterior. We also improve existing analysis on the regular closed-form entropy gradient estimators, which enables comparison against the STL estimator, providing explicit non-asymptotic complexity guarantees for both.

This work is an attempt to introduce a comprehensive benchmark for Arabic speech recognition, specifically tailored to address the challenges of telephone conversations in Arabic language. Arabic, characterized by its rich dialectal diversity and phonetic complexity, presents a number of unique challenges for automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. These challenges are further amplified in the domain of telephone calls, where audio quality, background noise, and conversational speech styles negatively affect recognition accuracy. Our work aims to establish a robust benchmark that not only encompasses the broad spectrum of Arabic dialects but also emulates the real-world conditions of call-based communications. By incorporating diverse dialectical expressions and accounting for the variable quality of call recordings, this benchmark seeks to provide a rigorous testing ground for the development and evaluation of ASR systems capable of navigating the complexities of Arabic speech in telephonic contexts. This work also attempts to establish a baseline performance evaluation using state-of-the-art ASR technologies.

While humans sometimes do show the capability of correcting their own erroneous guesses with self-critiquing, there seems to be no basis for that assumption in the case of LLMs.

Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.

The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.

When is heterogeneity in the composition of an autonomous robotic team beneficial and when is it detrimental? We investigate and answer this question in the context of a minimally viable model that examines the role of heterogeneous speeds in perimeter defense problems, where defenders share a total allocated speed budget. We consider two distinct problem settings and develop strategies based on dynamic programming and on local interaction rules. We present a theoretical analysis of both approaches and our results are extensively validated using simulations. Interestingly, our results demonstrate that the viability of heterogeneous teams depends on the amount of information available to the defenders. Moreover, our results suggest a universality property: across a wide range of problem parameters the optimal ratio of the speeds of the defenders remains nearly constant.

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