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Recent years have witnessed the success of introducing deep learning models to time series forecasting. From a data generation perspective, we illustrate that existing models are susceptible to distribution shifts driven by temporal contexts, whether observed or unobserved. Such context-driven distribution shift (CDS) introduces biases in predictions within specific contexts and poses challenges for conventional training paradigms. In this paper, we introduce a universal calibration methodology for the detection and adaptation of CDS with a trained model. To this end, we propose a novel CDS detector, termed the "residual-based CDS detector" or "Reconditionor", which quantifies the model's vulnerability to CDS by evaluating the mutual information between prediction residuals and their corresponding contexts. A high Reconditionor score indicates a severe susceptibility, thereby necessitating model adaptation. In this circumstance, we put forth a straightforward yet potent adapter framework for model calibration, termed the "sample-level contextualized adapter" or "SOLID". This framework involves the curation of a contextually similar dataset to the provided test sample and the subsequent fine-tuning of the model's prediction layer with a limited number of steps. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that this adaptation strategy can achieve an optimal bias-variance trade-off. Notably, our proposed Reconditionor and SOLID are model-agnostic and readily adaptable to a wide range of models. Extensive experiments show that SOLID consistently enhances the performance of current forecasting models on real-world datasets, especially on cases with substantial CDS detected by the proposed Reconditionor, thus validating the effectiveness of the calibration approach.

AI-aided clinical diagnosis is desired in medical care. Existing deep learning models lack explainability and mainly focus on image analysis. The recently developed Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) approach is causality-driven, explainable, and invariant across different application scenarios, without problems of data collection, labeling, fitting, privacy, bias, generalization, high cost and high energy consumption. Through close collaboration between clinical experts and DUCG technicians, 46 DUCG models covering 54 chief complaints were constructed. Over 1,000 diseases can be diagnosed without triage. Before being applied in real-world, the 46 DUCG models were retrospectively verified by third-party hospitals. The verified diagnostic precisions were no less than 95%, in which the diagnostic precision for every disease including uncommon ones was no less than 80%. After verifications, the 46 DUCG models were applied in the real-world in China. Over one million real diagnosis cases have been performed, with only 17 incorrect diagnoses identified. Due to DUCG's transparency, the mistakes causing the incorrect diagnoses were found and corrected. The diagnostic abilities of the clinicians who applied DUCG frequently were improved significantly. Following the introduction to the earlier presented DUCG methodology, the recommendation algorithm for potential medical checks is presented and the key idea of DUCG is extracted.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in processing vision-language tasks. One of the crux of MLLMs lies in vision tokenization, which involves efficiently transforming input visual signals into feature representations that are most beneficial for LLMs. However, existing vision tokenizers, essential for semantic alignment between vision and language, remain problematic. Existing methods aggressively fragment visual input, corrupting the visual semantic integrity. To address this, this paper proposes a novel dynamic Semantic-Equivalent Vision Tokenizer (SeTok), which groups visual features into semantic units via a dynamic clustering algorithm, flexibly determining the number of tokens based on image complexity. The resulting vision tokens effectively preserve semantic integrity and capture both low-frequency and high-frequency visual features. The proposed MLLM (Setokim) equipped with SeTok significantly demonstrates superior performance across various tasks, as evidenced by our experimental results. The project page is at //chocowu.github.io/SeTok-web/.

Adaptive gradient methods are arguably the most successful optimization algorithms for neural network training. While it is well-known that adaptive gradient methods can achieve better dimensional dependence than stochastic gradient descent (SGD) under favorable geometry for stochastic convex optimization, the theoretical justification for their success in stochastic non-convex optimization remains elusive. In this paper, we aim to close this gap by analyzing the convergence rates of AdaGrad measured by the $\ell_1$-norm of the gradient. Specifically, when the objective has $L$-Lipschitz gradient and the stochastic gradient variance is bounded by $\sigma^2$, we prove a worst-case convergence rate of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\frac{\sqrt{d}L}{\sqrt{T}} + \frac{\sqrt{d} \sigma}{T^{1/4}})$, where $d$ is the dimension of the problem.We also present a lower bound of ${\Omega}(\frac{\sqrt{d}}{\sqrt{T}})$ for minimizing the gradient $\ell_1$-norm in the deterministic setting, showing the tightness of our upper bound in the noiseless case. Moreover, under more fine-grained assumptions on the smoothness structure of the objective and the gradient noise and under favorable gradient $\ell_1/\ell_2$ geometry, we show that AdaGrad can potentially shave a factor of $\sqrt{d}$ compared to SGD. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result for adaptive gradient methods that demonstrates a provable gain over SGD in the non-convex setting.

LLMs have marked a revolutonary shift, yet they falter when faced with compositional reasoning tasks. Our research embarks on a quest to uncover the root causes of compositional reasoning failures of LLMs, uncovering that most of them stem from the improperly generated or leveraged implicit reasoning results. Inspired by our empirical findings, we resort to Logit Lens and an intervention experiment to dissect the inner hidden states of LLMs. This deep dive reveals that implicit reasoning results indeed surface within middle layers and play a causative role in shaping the final explicit reasoning results. Our exploration further locates multi-head self-attention (MHSA) modules within these layers, which emerge as the linchpins in accurate generation and leveraing of implicit reasoning results. Grounded on the above findings, we develop CREME, a lightweight method to patch errors in compositional reasoning via editing the located MHSA modules. Our empirical evidence stands testament to CREME's effectiveness, paving the way for autonomously and continuously enhancing compositional reasoning capabilities in language models.

Portfolio optimization aims at constructing a realistic portfolio with significant out-of-sample performance, which is typically measured by the out-of-sample Sharpe ratio. However, due to in-sample optimism, it is inappropriate to use the in-sample estimated covariance to evaluate the out-of-sample Sharpe, especially in the high dimensional settings. In this paper, we propose a novel method to estimate the out-of-sample Sharpe ratio using only in-sample data, based on random matrix theory. Furthermore, portfolio managers can use the estimated out-of-sample Sharpe as a criterion to decide the best tuning for constructing their portfolios. Specifically, we consider the classical framework of Markowits mean-variance portfolio optimization with known mean vector and the high dimensional regime of $p/n \to c \in (0,\infty)$, where $p$ is the portfolio dimension and $n$ is the number of samples or time points. We propose to correct the sample covariance by a regularization matrix and provide a consistent estimator of its Sharpe ratio. The new estimator works well under either of three conditions: (1) bounded covariance spectrum, (2) arbitrary number of diverging spikes when $c < 1$, and (3) fixed number of diverging spikes when $c \ge 1$. We can also extend the results to construct global minimum variance portfolio and correct out-of-sample efficient frontier. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through comprehensive simulations and real data experiments. Our results highlight the potential of this methodology as a powerful tool for portfolio optimization in high dimensional settings.

Large language models (LLMs) have strong capabilities in solving diverse natural language processing tasks. However, the safety and security issues of LLM systems have become the major obstacle to their widespread application. Many studies have extensively investigated risks in LLM systems and developed the corresponding mitigation strategies. Leading-edge enterprises such as OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Anthropic have also made lots of efforts on responsible LLMs. Therefore, there is a growing need to organize the existing studies and establish comprehensive taxonomies for the community. In this paper, we delve into four essential modules of an LLM system, including an input module for receiving prompts, a language model trained on extensive corpora, a toolchain module for development and deployment, and an output module for exporting LLM-generated content. Based on this, we propose a comprehensive taxonomy, which systematically analyzes potential risks associated with each module of an LLM system and discusses the corresponding mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we review prevalent benchmarks, aiming to facilitate the risk assessment of LLM systems. We hope that this paper can help LLM participants embrace a systematic perspective to build their responsible LLM systems.

With the advances of data-driven machine learning research, a wide variety of prediction problems have been tackled. It has become critical to explore how machine learning and specifically deep learning methods can be exploited to analyse healthcare data. A major limitation of existing methods has been the focus on grid-like data; however, the structure of physiological recordings are often irregular and unordered which makes it difficult to conceptualise them as a matrix. As such, graph neural networks have attracted significant attention by exploiting implicit information that resides in a biological system, with interactive nodes connected by edges whose weights can be either temporal associations or anatomical junctions. In this survey, we thoroughly review the different types of graph architectures and their applications in healthcare. We provide an overview of these methods in a systematic manner, organized by their domain of application including functional connectivity, anatomical structure and electrical-based analysis. We also outline the limitations of existing techniques and discuss potential directions for future research.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are successful in many computer vision tasks. However, the most accurate DNNs require millions of parameters and operations, making them energy, computation and memory intensive. This impedes the deployment of large DNNs in low-power devices with limited compute resources. Recent research improves DNN models by reducing the memory requirement, energy consumption, and number of operations without significantly decreasing the accuracy. This paper surveys the progress of low-power deep learning and computer vision, specifically in regards to inference, and discusses the methods for compacting and accelerating DNN models. The techniques can be divided into four major categories: (1) parameter quantization and pruning, (2) compressed convolutional filters and matrix factorization, (3) network architecture search, and (4) knowledge distillation. We analyze the accuracy, advantages, disadvantages, and potential solutions to the problems with the techniques in each category. We also discuss new evaluation metrics as a guideline for future research.

Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have recently achieved great success in many visual recognition tasks. However, existing deep neural network models are computationally expensive and memory intensive, hindering their deployment in devices with low memory resources or in applications with strict latency requirements. Therefore, a natural thought is to perform model compression and acceleration in deep networks without significantly decreasing the model performance. During the past few years, tremendous progress has been made in this area. In this paper, we survey the recent advanced techniques for compacting and accelerating CNNs model developed. These techniques are roughly categorized into four schemes: parameter pruning and sharing, low-rank factorization, transferred/compact convolutional filters, and knowledge distillation. Methods of parameter pruning and sharing will be described at the beginning, after that the other techniques will be introduced. For each scheme, we provide insightful analysis regarding the performance, related applications, advantages, and drawbacks etc. Then we will go through a few very recent additional successful methods, for example, dynamic capacity networks and stochastic depths networks. After that, we survey the evaluation matrix, the main datasets used for evaluating the model performance and recent benchmarking efforts. Finally, we conclude this paper, discuss remaining challenges and possible directions on this topic.