Separation provision and collision avoidance to avoid other air traffic are fundamental components of the layered conflict management system to ensure safe and efficient operations. Pilots have visual-based separation responsibilities to see and be seen to maintain separation between aircraft. To safely integrate into the airspace, drones should be required to have a minimum level of performance based on the safety achieved as baselined by crewed aircraft seen and be seen interactions. Drone interactions with crewed aircraft should not be more hazardous than interactions between traditional aviation aircraft. Accordingly, there is need for a methodology to design and evaluate detect and avoid systems, to be equipped by drones to mitigate the risk of a midair collision, where the methodology explicitly addresses, both semantically and mathematically, the appropriate operating rules associated with see and be seen. In response, we simulated how onboard pilots safely operate through see and be seen interactions using an updated visual acquisition model that was originally developed by J.W. Andrews decades ago. Monte Carlo simulations were representative two aircraft flying under visual flight rules and results were analyzed with respect to drone detect and avoid performance standards.
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Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial to improve its resilience. Representing mid to long-term seasonal climate forecasts is challenging as seasonal climate predictions are uncertain, and encoding spatio-temporal relationship of climate forecasts with demand is complex. We propose a novel modeling framework that efficiently encodes seasonal climate predictions to provide robust and reliable time-series forecasting for supply chain functions. The encoding framework enables effective learning of latent representations -- be it uncertain seasonal climate prediction or other time-series data (e.g., buyer patterns) -- via a modular neural network architecture. Our extensive experiments indicate that learning such representations to model seasonal climate forecast results in an error reduction of approximately 13\% to 17\% across multiple real-world data sets compared to existing demand forecasting methods.
In the past few years, an incident response-oriented cybersecurity program has been constructed at University of Central Oklahoma. As a core course in the newly-established curricula, Secure System Administration focuses on the essential knowledge and skill set for system administration. To enrich students with hands-on experience, we also develop a companion coursework project, named PowerGrader. In this paper, we present the course structure as well as the companion project design. Additionally, we survey the pertinent criterion and curriculum requirements from the widely recognized accreditation units. By this means, we demonstrate the importance of a secure system administration course within the context of cybersecurity education
Defending community-owned cyber space requires community-based efforts. Large-scale network observations that uphold the highest regard for privacy are key to protecting our shared cyberspace. Deployment of the necessary network sensors requires careful sensor placement, focusing, and calibration with significant volumes of network observations. This paper demonstrates novel focusing and calibration procedures on a multi-billion packet dataset using high-performance GraphBLAS anonymized hypersparse matrices. The run-time performance on a real-world data set confirms previously observed real-time processing rates for high-bandwidth links while achieving significant data compression. The output of the analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of these procedures at focusing the traffic matrix and revealing the underlying stable heavy-tail statistical distributions that are necessary for anomaly detection. A simple model of the corresponding probability of detection ($p_{\rm d}$) and probability of false alarm ($p_{\rm fa}$) for these distributions highlights the criticality of network sensor focusing and calibration. Once a sensor is properly focused and calibrated it is then in a position to carry out two of the central tenets of good cybersecurity: (1) continuous observation of the network and (2) minimizing unbrokered network connections.
This paper investigates the potential privacy risks associated with forecasting models, with specific emphasis on their application in the context of smart grids. While machine learning and deep learning algorithms offer valuable utility, concerns arise regarding their exposure of sensitive information. Previous studies have focused on classification models, overlooking risks associated with forecasting models. Deep learning based forecasting models, such as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), play a crucial role in several applications including optimizing smart grid systems but also introduce privacy risks. Our study analyzes the ability of forecasting models to leak global properties and privacy threats in smart grid systems. We demonstrate that a black box access to an LSTM model can reveal a significant amount of information equivalent to having access to the data itself (with the difference being as low as 1% in Area Under the ROC Curve). This highlights the importance of protecting forecasting models at the same level as the data.
Large-scale meteorological disasters are increasing around the world, and power outage damage by natural disaster such as typhoons and earthquakes is increasing in Japan as well. Corresponding to the need of reduction of economic losses due to power outages, we are promoting research of resilient grids that minimizes power outage duration. In this report, we propose PACEM (Poles-Aware moving Cost Estimation Method) for determining travel costs between failure points based on the tilt angle and direction of electric poles obtained from pole-mounted sensors and road condition data. Evaluation result shows that the total recovery time can be reduced by 28% in the target area.
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given observed circumstances. This article presents an estimation method for modeling the conditional joint distribution of bivariate outcomes based on the distribution regression and factorization methods. This method is considered semiparametric in that it allows for flexible modeling of both the marginal and joint distributions conditional on covariates without imposing global parametric assumptions across the entire distribution. In contrast to existing parametric approaches, our method can accommodate discrete, continuous, or mixed variables, and provides a simple yet effective way to capture distributional dependence structures between bivariate outcomes and covariates. Various simulation results confirm that our method can perform similarly or better in finite samples compared to the alternative methods. In an application to the study of a motor third-party liability insurance portfolio, the proposed method effectively estimates risk measures such as the conditional Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. This result suggests that this semiparametric approach can serve as an alternative in insurance risk management.
Controlling the interaction forces between a human and an exoskeleton is crucial for providing transparency or adjusting assistance or resistance levels. However, it is an open problem to control the interaction forces of lower-limb exoskeletons designed for unrestricted overground walking. For these types of exoskeletons, it is challenging to implement force/torque sensors at every contact between the user and the exoskeleton for direct force measurement. Moreover, it is important to compensate for the exoskeleton's whole-body gravitational and dynamical forces, especially for heavy lower-limb exoskeletons. Previous works either simplified the dynamic model by treating the legs as independent double pendulums, or they did not close the loop with interaction force feedback. The proposed whole-exoskeleton closed-loop compensation (WECC) method calculates the interaction torques during the complete gait cycle by using whole-body dynamics and joint torque measurements on a hip-knee exoskeleton. Furthermore, it uses a constrained optimization scheme to track desired interaction torques in a closed loop while considering physical and safety constraints. We evaluated the haptic transparency and dynamic interaction torque tracking of WECC control on three subjects. We also compared the performance of WECC with a controller based on a simplified dynamic model and a passive version of the exoskeleton. The WECC controller results in a consistently low absolute interaction torque error during the whole gait cycle for both zero and nonzero desired interaction torques. In contrast, the simplified controller yields poor performance in tracking desired interaction torques during the stance phase.
Pre-trained deep neural network language models such as ELMo, GPT, BERT and XLNet have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on a variety of language understanding tasks. However, their size makes them impractical for a number of scenarios, especially on mobile and edge devices. In particular, the input word embedding matrix accounts for a significant proportion of the model's memory footprint, due to the large input vocabulary and embedding dimensions. Knowledge distillation techniques have had success at compressing large neural network models, but they are ineffective at yielding student models with vocabularies different from the original teacher models. We introduce a novel knowledge distillation technique for training a student model with a significantly smaller vocabulary as well as lower embedding and hidden state dimensions. Specifically, we employ a dual-training mechanism that trains the teacher and student models simultaneously to obtain optimal word embeddings for the student vocabulary. We combine this approach with learning shared projection matrices that transfer layer-wise knowledge from the teacher model to the student model. Our method is able to compress the BERT_BASE model by more than 60x, with only a minor drop in downstream task metrics, resulting in a language model with a footprint of under 7MB. Experimental results also demonstrate higher compression efficiency and accuracy when compared with other state-of-the-art compression techniques.
Recent years have witnessed the enormous success of low-dimensional vector space representations of knowledge graphs to predict missing facts or find erroneous ones. Currently, however, it is not yet well-understood how ontological knowledge, e.g. given as a set of (existential) rules, can be embedded in a principled way. To address this shortcoming, in this paper we introduce a framework based on convex regions, which can faithfully incorporate ontological knowledge into the vector space embedding. Our technical contribution is two-fold. First, we show that some of the most popular existing embedding approaches are not capable of modelling even very simple types of rules. Second, we show that our framework can represent ontologies that are expressed using so-called quasi-chained existential rules in an exact way, such that any set of facts which is induced using that vector space embedding is logically consistent and deductively closed with respect to the input ontology.
Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.
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