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Health policy decisions are often informed by estimates of long-term survival based primarily on short-term data. A range of methods are available to include longer-term information, but there has previously been no comprehensive and accessible tool for implementing these. This paper introduces a novel model and software package for parametric survival modelling of individual-level, right-censored data, optionally combined with summary survival data on one or more time periods. It could be used to estimate long-term survival based on short-term data from a clinical trial, combined with longer-term disease registry or population data, or elicited judgements. All data sources are represented jointly in a Bayesian model. The hazard is modelled as an M-spline function, which can represent potential changes in the hazard trajectory at any time. Through Bayesian estimation, the model automatically adapts to fit the available data, and acknowledges uncertainty where the data are weak. Therefore long-term estimates are only confident if there are strong long-term data, and inferences do not rely on extrapolating parametric functions learned from short-term data. The effects of treatment or other explanatory variables can be estimated through proportional hazards or with a flexible non-proportional hazards model. Some commonly-used mechanisms for survival can also be assumed: cure models, additive hazards models with known background mortality, and models where the effect of a treatment wanes over time. All of these features are provided for the first time in an R package, $\texttt{survextrap}$, in which models can be fitted using standard R survival modelling syntax. This paper explains the model, and demonstrates the use of the package to fit a range of models to common forms of survival data used in health technology assessments.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 反卷積網絡 · 估計/估計量 · Pair · Networking ·
2023 年 7 月 31 日

Most existing Low-Light Image Enhancement (LLIE) methods are primarily designed to improve brightness in dark regions, which suffer from severe degradation in nighttime images. However, these methods have limited exploration in another major visibility damage, the glow effects in real night scenes. Glow effects are inevitable in the presence of artificial light sources and cause further diffused blurring when directly enhanced. To settle this issue, we innovatively consider the glow suppression task as learning physical glow generation via multiple scattering estimation according to the Atmospheric Point Spread Function (APSF). In response to the challenges posed by uneven glow intensity and varying source shapes, an APSF-based Nighttime Imaging Model with Near-field Light Sources (NIM-NLS) is specifically derived to design a scalable Light-aware Blind Deconvolution Network (LBDN). The glow-suppressed result is then brightened via a Retinex-based Enhancement Module (REM). Remarkably, the proposed glow suppression method is based on zero-shot learning and does not rely on any paired or unpaired training data. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in both glow suppression and low-light enhancement tasks.

Hyperparameter tuning plays a crucial role in optimizing the performance of predictive learners. Cross--validation (CV) is a widely adopted technique for estimating the error of different hyperparameter settings. Repeated cross-validation (RCV) has been commonly employed to reduce the variability of CV errors. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called blocked cross-validation (BCV), where the repetitions are blocked with respect to both CV partition and the random behavior of the learner. Theoretical analysis and empirical experiments demonstrate that BCV provides more precise error estimates compared to RCV, even with a significantly reduced number of runs. We present extensive examples using real--world data sets to showcase the effectiveness and efficiency of BCV in hyperparameter tuning. Our results indicate that BCV outperforms RCV in hyperparameter tuning, achieving greater precision with fewer computations.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly used as cost-effective and flexible Wi-Fi Access Points (APs) and cellular Base Stations (BSs) to enhance Quality of Service (QoS). In disaster management scenarios, UAV-based networks provide on-demand wireless connectivity when traditional infrastructures fail. In obstacle-rich environments like urban areas, reliable high-capacity communications links depend on Line-of-Sight (LoS) availability, especially at higher frequencies. Positioning UAVs to consider obstacles and enable LoS communications represents a promising solution that requires further exploration and development. The main contribution of this paper is the Traffic- and Obstacle-aware UAV Positioning Algorithm (TOPA). TOPA takes into account the users' traffic demand and the need for LoS between the UAV and the ground users in the presence of obstacles. The network performance achieved when using TOPA was evaluated through ns-3 simulations. The results show up to 100% improvement in the aggregate throughput without compromising fairness.

Driven by the latest trend towards self-supervised learning (SSL), the paradigm of "pretraining-then-finetuning" has been extensively explored to enhance the performance of clinical applications with limited annotations. Previous literature on model finetuning has mainly focused on regularization terms and specific policy models, while the misalignment of channels between source and target models has not received sufficient attention. In this work, we revisited the dynamics of batch normalization (BN) layers and observed that the trainable affine parameters of BN serve as sensitive indicators of domain information. Therefore, Affine Collaborative Normalization (AC-Norm) is proposed for finetuning, which dynamically recalibrates the channels in the target model according to the cross-domain channel-wise correlations without adding extra parameters. Based on a single-step backpropagation, AC-Norm can also be utilized to measure the transferability of pretrained models. We evaluated AC-Norm against the vanilla finetuning and state-of-the-art fine-tuning methods on transferring diverse pretrained models to the diabetic retinopathy grade classification, retinal vessel segmentation, CT lung nodule segmentation/classification, CT liver-tumor segmentation and MRI cardiac segmentation tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AC-Norm unanimously outperforms the vanilla finetuning by up to 4% improvement, even under significant domain shifts where the state-of-the-art methods bring no gains. We also prove the capability of AC-Norm in fast transferability estimation. Our code is available at //github.com/EndoluminalSurgicalVision-IMR/ACNorm.

With the increased deployment of machine learning models in various real-world applications, researchers and practitioners alike have emphasized the need for explanations of model behaviour. To this end, two broad strategies have been outlined in prior literature to explain models. Post hoc explanation methods explain the behaviour of complex black-box models by highlighting features that are critical to model predictions; however, prior work has shown that these explanations may not be faithful, and even more concerning is our inability to verify them. Specifically, it is nontrivial to evaluate if a given attribution is correct with respect to the underlying model. Inherently interpretable models, on the other hand, circumvent these issues by explicitly encoding explanations into model architecture, meaning their explanations are naturally faithful and verifiable, but they often exhibit poor predictive performance due to their limited expressive power. In this work, we aim to bridge the gap between the aforementioned strategies by proposing Verifiability Tuning (VerT), a method that transforms black-box models into models that naturally yield faithful and verifiable feature attributions. We begin by introducing a formal theoretical framework to understand verifiability and show that attributions produced by standard models cannot be verified. We then leverage this framework to propose a method to build verifiable models and feature attributions out of fully trained black-box models. Finally, we perform extensive experiments on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets, and show that VerT produces models that (1) yield explanations that are correct and verifiable and (2) are faithful to the original black-box models they are meant to explain.

Neural point estimators are neural networks that map data to parameter point estimates. They are fast, likelihood free and, due to their amortised nature, amenable to fast bootstrap-based uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we aim to increase the awareness of statisticians to this relatively new inferential tool, and to facilitate its adoption by providing user-friendly open-source software. We also give attention to the ubiquitous problem of making inference from replicated data, which we address in the neural setting using permutation-invariant neural networks. Through extensive simulation studies we show that these neural point estimators can quickly and optimally (in a Bayes sense) estimate parameters in weakly-identified and highly-parameterised models with relative ease. We demonstrate their applicability through an analysis of extreme sea-surface temperature in the Red Sea where, after training, we obtain parameter estimates and bootstrap-based confidence intervals from hundreds of spatial fields in a fraction of a second.

Operating in the near-vicinity of marine energy devices poses significant challenges to the control of underwater vehicles, predominantly due to the presence of large magnitude wave disturbances causing hazardous state perturbations. Approaches to tackle this problem have varied, but one promising solution is to adopt predictive control methods. Given the predictable nature of ocean waves, the potential exists to incorporate disturbance estimations directly within the plant model; this requires inclusion of a wave predictor to provide online preview information. To this end, this paper presents a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller with an integrated Deterministic Sea Wave Predictor for trajectory tracking of underwater vehicles. State information is obtained through an Extended Kalman Filter, forming a complete closed-loop strategy and facilitating online wave load estimations. The strategy is compared to a similar feed-forward disturbance mitigation scheme, showing mean performance improvements of 51% in positional error and 44.5% in attitude error. The preliminary results presented here provide strong evidence of the proposed method's high potential to effectively mitigate disturbances, facilitating accurate tracking performance even in the presence of high wave loading.

Single-frame infrared small target detection is considered to be a challenging task, due to the extreme imbalance between target and background, bounding box regression is extremely sensitive to infrared small targets, and small target information is easy to lose in the high-level semantic layer. In this paper, we propose an enhancing feature learning network (EFLNet) based on YOLOv7 framework to solve these problems. First, we notice that there is an extremely imbalance between the target and the background in the infrared image, which makes the model pay more attention to the background features, resulting in missed detection. To address this problem, we propose a new adaptive threshold focal loss function that adjusts the loss weight automatically, compelling the model to allocate greater attention to target features. Second, we introduce the normalized Gaussian Wasserstein distance to alleviate the difficulty of model convergence caused by the extreme sensitivity of the bounding box regression to infrared small targets. Finally, we incorporate a dynamic head mechanism into the network to enable adaptive learning of the relative importance of each semantic layer. Experimental results demonstrate our method can achieve better performance in the detection performance of infrared small targets compared to state-of-the-art deep-learning based methods.

State-of-the-art neural networks require extreme computational power to train. It is therefore natural to wonder whether they are optimally trained. Here we apply a recent advancement in stochastic thermodynamics which allows bounding the speed at which one can go from the initial weight distribution to the final distribution of the fully trained network, based on the ratio of their Wasserstein-2 distance and the entropy production rate of the dynamical process connecting them. Considering both gradient-flow and Langevin training dynamics, we provide analytical expressions for these speed limits for linear and linearizable neural networks e.g. Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). Remarkably, given some plausible scaling assumptions on the NTK spectra and spectral decomposition of the labels -- learning is optimal in a scaling sense. Our results are consistent with small-scale experiments with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Fully Connected Neural networks (FCNs) on CIFAR-10, showing a short highly non-optimal regime followed by a longer optimal regime.

Over the past few years, the rapid development of deep learning technologies for computer vision has greatly promoted the performance of medical image segmentation (MedISeg). However, the recent MedISeg publications usually focus on presentations of the major contributions (e.g., network architectures, training strategies, and loss functions) while unwittingly ignoring some marginal implementation details (also known as "tricks"), leading to a potential problem of the unfair experimental result comparisons. In this paper, we collect a series of MedISeg tricks for different model implementation phases (i.e., pre-training model, data pre-processing, data augmentation, model implementation, model inference, and result post-processing), and experimentally explore the effectiveness of these tricks on the consistent baseline models. Compared to paper-driven surveys that only blandly focus on the advantages and limitation analyses of segmentation models, our work provides a large number of solid experiments and is more technically operable. With the extensive experimental results on both the representative 2D and 3D medical image datasets, we explicitly clarify the effect of these tricks. Moreover, based on the surveyed tricks, we also open-sourced a strong MedISeg repository, where each of its components has the advantage of plug-and-play. We believe that this milestone work not only completes a comprehensive and complementary survey of the state-of-the-art MedISeg approaches, but also offers a practical guide for addressing the future medical image processing challenges including but not limited to small dataset learning, class imbalance learning, multi-modality learning, and domain adaptation. The code has been released at: //github.com/hust-linyi/MedISeg

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