This paper introduces a novel probabilistic forecasting technique called Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging (SQRA). It combines Quantile Regression Averaging - a well performing load and price forecasting approach - with kernel estimation to improve the reliability of the estimates. Three variants of SQRA are evaluated across datasets from four power markets and compared against well-established benchmarks. Empirical evidence indicates superior predictive performance of the method in terms of the Kupiec test, the pinball score, and the conditional predictive accuracy test. Moreover, considering a day-ahead market trading strategy that utilizes probabilistic price predictions and battery storage, the study shows that profits of up to 9 EUR per 1 MW traded can be achieved when forecasts are generated using SQRA.
相關內容
The Black-Scholes (B-S) equation has been recently extended as a kind of tempered time-fractional B-S equations, which become an interesting mathematical model in option pricing. In this study, we provide a fast numerical method to approximate the solution of the tempered time-fractional B-S model. To achieve high-order accuracy in space and overcome the weak initial singularity of the solution, we combine the compact operator with a tempered L1 approximation with nonuniform time steps to yield the numerical scheme. The convergence of the proposed difference scheme is proved to be unconditionally stable. Moreover, the kernel function in tempered Caputo fractional derivative is approximated by sum-of-exponentials, which leads to a fast unconditional stable compact difference method that reduces the computational cost. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
Informative cluster size (ICS) arises in situations with clustered data where a latent relationship exists between the number of participants in a cluster and the outcome measures. Although this phenomenon has been sporadically reported in statistical literature for nearly two decades now, further exploration is needed in certain statistical methodologies to avoid potentially misleading inferences. For inference about population quantities without covariates, inverse cluster size reweightings are often employed to adjust for ICS. Further, to study the effect of covariates on disease progression described by a multistate model, the pseudo-value regression technique has gained popularity in time-to-event data analysis. We seek to answer the question: "How to apply pseudo-value regression to clustered time-to-event data when cluster size is informative?" ICS adjustment by the reweighting method can be performed in two steps; estimation of marginal functions of the multistate model and fitting the estimating equations based on pseudo-value responses, leading to four possible strategies. We present theoretical arguments and thorough simulation experiments to ascertain the correct strategy for adjusting for ICS. A further extension of our methodology is implemented to include informativeness induced by the intra-cluster group size. We demonstrate the methods in two real-world applications: (i) to determine predictors of tooth survival in a periodontal study, and (ii) to identify indicators of ambulatory recovery in spinal cord injury patients who participated in locomotor-training rehabilitation.
Electricity grids have become an essential part of daily life, even if they are often not noticed in everyday life. We usually only become particularly aware of this dependence by the time the electricity grid is no longer available. However, significant changes, such as the transition to renewable energy (photovoltaic, wind turbines, etc.) and an increasing number of energy consumers with complex load profiles (electric vehicles, home battery systems, etc.), pose new challenges for the electricity grid. To address these challenges, we propose two first-of-its-kind datasets based on measurements in a broadband powerline communications (PLC) infrastructure. Both datasets FiN-1 and FiN-2, were collected during real practical use in a part of the German low-voltage grid that supplies around 4.4 million people and show more than 13 billion datapoints collected by more than 5100 sensors. In addition, we present different use cases in asset management, grid state visualization, forecasting, predictive maintenance, and novelty detection to highlight the benefits of these types of data. For these applications, we particularly highlight the use of novel machine learning architectures to extract rich information from real-world data that cannot be captured using traditional approaches. By publishing the first large-scale real-world dataset, we aim to shed light on the previously largely unrecognized potential of PLC data and emphasize machine-learning-based research in low-voltage distribution networks by presenting a variety of different use cases.
In the last few years, many works have tried to explain the predictions of deep learning models. Few methods, however, have been proposed to verify the accuracy or faithfulness of these explanations. Recently, influence functions, which is a method that approximates the effect that leave-one-out training has on the loss function, has been shown to be fragile. The proposed reason for their fragility remains unclear. Although previous work suggests the use of regularization to increase robustness, this does not hold in all cases. In this work, we seek to investigate the experiments performed in the prior work in an effort to understand the underlying mechanisms of influence function fragility. First, we verify influence functions using procedures from the literature under conditions where the convexity assumptions of influence functions are met. Then, we relax these assumptions and study the effects of non-convexity by using deeper models and more complex datasets. Here, we analyze the key metrics and procedures that are used to validate influence functions. Our results indicate that the validation procedures may cause the observed fragility.
High-dimensional data can often display heterogeneity due to heteroscedastic variance or inhomogeneous covariate effects. Penalized quantile and expectile regression methods offer useful tools to detect heteroscedasticity in high-dimensional data. The former is computationally challenging due to the non-smooth nature of the check loss, and the latter is sensitive to heavy-tailed error distributions. In this paper, we propose and study (penalized) robust expectile regression (retire), with a focus on iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$-penalization which reduces the estimation bias from $\ell_1$-penalization and leads to oracle properties. Theoretically, we establish the statistical properties of the retire estimator under two regimes: (i) low-dimensional regime in which $d \ll n$; (ii) high-dimensional regime in which $s\ll n\ll d$ with $s$ denoting the number of significant predictors. In the high-dimensional setting, we carefully characterize the solution path of the iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$-penalized retire estimation, adapted from the local linear approximation algorithm for folded-concave regularization. Under a mild minimum signal strength condition, we show that after as many as $\log(\log d)$ iterations the final iterate enjoys the oracle convergence rate. At each iteration, the weighted $\ell_1$-penalized convex program can be efficiently solved by a semismooth Newton coordinate descent algorithm. Numerical studies demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed procedure compared with either non-robust or quantile regression based alternatives.
Dynamic graphs arise in various real-world applications, and it is often welcomed to model the dynamics directly in continuous time domain for its flexibility. This paper aims to design an easy-to-use pipeline (termed as EasyDGL which is also due to its implementation by DGL toolkit) composed of three key modules with both strong fitting ability and interpretability. Specifically the proposed pipeline which involves encoding, training and interpreting: i) a temporal point process (TPP) modulated attention architecture to endow the continuous-time resolution with the coupled spatiotemporal dynamics of the observed graph with edge-addition events; ii) a principled loss composed of task-agnostic TPP posterior maximization based on observed events on the graph, and a task-aware loss with a masking strategy over dynamic graph, where the covered tasks include dynamic link prediction, dynamic node classification and node traffic forecasting; iii) interpretation of the model outputs (e.g., representations and predictions) with scalable perturbation-based quantitative analysis in the graph Fourier domain, which could more comprehensively reflect the behavior of the learned model. Extensive experimental results on public benchmarks show the superior performance of our EasyDGL for time-conditioned predictive tasks, and in particular demonstrate that EasyDGL can effectively quantify the predictive power of frequency content that a model learn from the evolving graph data.
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
Time series forecasting is widely used in business intelligence, e.g., forecast stock market price, sales, and help the analysis of data trend. Most time series of interest are macroscopic time series that are aggregated from microscopic data. However, instead of directly modeling the macroscopic time series, rare literature studied the forecasting of macroscopic time series by leveraging data on the microscopic level. In this paper, we assume that the microscopic time series follow some unknown mixture probabilistic distributions. We theoretically show that as we identify the ground truth latent mixture components, the estimation of time series from each component could be improved because of lower variance, thus benefitting the estimation of macroscopic time series as well. Inspired by the power of Seq2seq and its variants on the modeling of time series data, we propose Mixture of Seq2seq (MixSeq), an end2end mixture model to cluster microscopic time series, where all the components come from a family of Seq2seq models parameterized by different parameters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show the superiority of our approach.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191