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We study the following repeated non-atomic routing game. In every round, nature chooses a state in an i.i.d. manner according to a publicly known distribution, which influences link latency functions. The system planner makes private route recommendations to participating agents, which constitute a fixed fraction, according to a publicly known signaling strategy. The participating agents choose between obeying or not obeying the recommendation according to cumulative regret of the participating agent population in the previous round. The non-participating agents choose route according to myopic best response to a calibrated forecast of the routing decisions of the participating agents. We show that, for parallel networks, if the planner's signal strategy satisfies the obedience condition, then, almost surely, the link flows are asymptotically consistent with the Bayes correlated equilibrium induced by the signaling strategy.

US Wind power generation has grown significantly over the last decades, both in number and average size of operating turbines. A lower specific power, i.e. larger rotor blades relative to wind turbine capacities, allows to increase capacity factors and to reduce cost. However, this development also reduces system efficiency, i.e. the share of power in the wind flowing through rotor swept areas which is converted to electricity. At the same time, also output power density, the amount of electric energy generated per unit of rotor swept area, may decrease due to the decline of specific power. The precise outcome depends, however, on the interplay of wind resources and wind turbine models. In this study, we present a decomposition of historical US wind power generation data for the period 2001-2021 to study to which extent the decrease in specific power affected system efficiency and output power density. We show that as a result of a decrease in specific power, system efficiency fell and therefore, output power density was reduced during the last decade. Furthermore, we show that the wind available to turbines has increased substantially due to increases in the average hub height of turbines since 2001. However, site quality has slightly decreased during the last 20 years.

The mystery about the ingenious creator of Bitcoin concealing behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto has been fascinating the global public for more than a decade. Suddenly jumping out of the dark in 2008, this persona hurled the highly disruptive distributed ledger technology "blockchain" that has added the missing native value layer to the internet. Purposely agnostic without advocating, a priori, any old or fielding new names, this paper first identifies the degrees of freedom Satoshi Nakamoto had available in the design of Bitcoin, and in fabricating snippets of personal data. The results underpin that the iconic creator of Bitcoin most likely left or encoded bits of information in his self-chosen alias, dates, the Bitcoin whitepaper including its bibliography, and the blockchain design parameters. By interweaving the substantial collection of previous and new circumstantial with direct evidence, like relevant locations and happenings in history, and at the time, a consistent skeleton of Satoshi Nakamoto's biography transpires. Moreover, a psychogram of a reclusive and capricious genius is drawn, which sheds new light on Satoshi Nakamoto's background, mindset, pastimes, and penchant for puns; this study may also explain the motivation of his abrupt departure from the online community, his continuing abstinence from engaging with the Bitcoin community, and from reaping the fruits of his mindboggling wealth. From a history of science and technology perspective, such an altruistic sacrifice for the benefit of his brainchild is entirely unprecedented.

The extensive adoption of business analytics (BA) has brought financial gains and increased efficiencies. However, these advances have simultaneously drawn attention to rising legal and ethical challenges when BA inform decisions with fairness implications. As a response to these concerns, the emerging study of algorithmic fairness deals with algorithmic outputs that may result in disparate outcomes or other forms of injustices for subgroups of the population, especially those who have been historically marginalized. Fairness is relevant on the basis of legal compliance, social responsibility, and utility; if not adequately and systematically addressed, unfair BA systems may lead to societal harms and may also threaten an organization's own survival, its competitiveness, and overall performance. This paper offers a forward-looking, BA-focused review of algorithmic fairness. We first review the state-of-the-art research on sources and measures of bias, as well as bias mitigation algorithms. We then provide a detailed discussion of the utility-fairness relationship, emphasizing that the frequent assumption of a trade-off between these two constructs is often mistaken or short-sighted. Finally, we chart a path forward by identifying opportunities for business scholars to address impactful, open challenges that are key to the effective and responsible deployment of BA.

We identify a new class of vulnerabilities in implementations of differential privacy. Specifically, they arise when computing basic statistics such as sums, thanks to discrepancies between the implemented arithmetic using finite data types (namely, ints or floats) and idealized arithmetic over the reals or integers. These discrepancies cause the sensitivity of the implemented statistics (i.e., how much one individual's data can affect the result) to be much higher than the sensitivity we expect. Consequently, essentially all differential privacy libraries fail to introduce enough noise to hide individual-level information as required by differential privacy, and we show that this may be exploited in realistic attacks on differentially private query systems. In addition to presenting these vulnerabilities, we also provide a number of solutions, which modify or constrain the way in which the sum is implemented in order to recover the idealized or near-idealized bounds on sensitivity.

As sustainability becomes an increasing priority throughout global society, academic and research institutions are assessed on their contribution to relevant research publications. This study compares four methods of identifying research publications related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 13: climate action. The four methods, Elsevier, STRINGS, SIRIS, and Dimensions have each developed search strings with the help of subject matter experts which are then enhanced through distinct methods to produce a final set of publications. Our analysis showed that the methods produced comparable quantities of publications but with little overlap between them. We visualised some difference in topic focus between the methods and drew links with the search strategies used. Differences between publications retrieved are likely to come from subjective interpretation of the goals, keyword selection, operationalising search strategies, AI enhancements, and selection of bibliographic database. Each of the elements warrants deeper investigation to understand their role in identifying SDG-related research. Before choosing any method to assess the research contribution to SDGs, end users of SDG data should carefully consider their interpretation of the goal and determine which of the available methods produces the closest dataset. Meanwhile data providers might customise their methods for varying interpretations of the SDGs.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.