This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.
This study examines the adaptation of the problem-solving studio to computer science education by combining it with pair programming. Pair programming is a software engineering practice in industry, but has seen mixed results in the classroom. Recent research suggests that pair programming has promise and potential to be an effective pedagogical tool, however what constitutes good instructional design and implementation for pair programming in the classroom is not clear. We developed a framework for instructional design for pair programming by adapting the problem-solving studio (PSS), a pedagogy originally from biomedical engineering. PSS involves teams of students solving open-ended problems with real-time feedback given by the instructor. Notably, PSS uses problems of adjustable difficulty to keep students of all levels engaged and functioning within the zone of proximal development. The course structure has three stages, first starting with demonstration, followed by a PSS session, then finishing with a debrief. We studied the combination of PSS and pair programming in a CS1 class over three years. Surveys of the students report a high level of engagement, learning, and motivation.
Often machine learning models tend to automatically learn associations present in the training data without questioning their validity or appropriateness. This undesirable property is the root cause of the manifestation of spurious correlations, which render models unreliable and prone to failure in the presence of distribution shifts. Research shows that most methods attempting to remedy spurious correlations are only effective for a model's known spurious associations. Current spurious correlation detection algorithms either rely on extensive human annotations or are too restrictive in their formulation. Moreover, they rely on strict definitions of visual artifacts that may not apply to data produced by generative models, as they are known to hallucinate contents that do not conform to standard specifications. In this work, we introduce a general-purpose method that efficiently detects potential spurious correlations, and requires significantly less human interference in comparison to the prior art. Additionally, the proposed method provides intuitive explanations while eliminating the need for pixel-level annotations. We demonstrate the proposed method's tolerance to the peculiarity of AI-generated images, which is a considerably challenging task, one where most of the existing methods fall short. Consequently, our method is also suitable for detecting spurious correlations that may propagate to downstream applications originating from generative models.
This paper introduces a two-stage framework designed to enhance long-tail class incremental learning, enabling the model to progressively learn new classes, while mitigating catastrophic forgetting in the context of long-tailed data distributions. Addressing the challenge posed by the under-representation of tail classes in long-tail class incremental learning, our approach achieves classifier alignment by leveraging global variance as an informative measure and class prototypes in the second stage. This process effectively captures class properties and eliminates the need for data balancing or additional layer tuning. Alongside traditional class incremental learning losses in the first stage, the proposed approach incorporates mixup classes to learn robust feature representations, ensuring smoother boundaries. The proposed framework can seamlessly integrate as a module with any class incremental learning method to effectively handle long-tail class incremental learning scenarios. Extensive experimentation on the CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-Subset datasets validates the approach's efficacy, showcasing its superiority over state-of-the-art techniques across various long-tail CIL settings.
Spurious correlations in the data, where multiple cues are predictive of the target labels, often lead to shortcut learning phenomena, where a model may rely on erroneous, easy-to-learn, cues while ignoring reliable ones. In this work, we propose an ensemble diversification framework exploiting the generation of synthetic counterfactuals using Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs). We discover that DPMs have the inherent capability to represent multiple visual cues independently, even when they are largely correlated in the training data. We leverage this characteristic to encourage model diversity and empirically show the efficacy of the approach with respect to several diversification objectives. We show that diffusion-guided diversification can lead models to avert attention from shortcut cues, achieving ensemble diversity performance comparable to previous methods requiring additional data collection.
The development of trustworthy conversational information-seeking systems relies on dialogue models that can generate faithful and accurate responses based on relevant knowledge texts. However, two main challenges hinder this task. Firstly, language models may generate hallucinations due to data biases present in their pretraining corpus. Secondly, knowledge texts often contain redundant and irrelevant information that distracts the model's attention from the relevant text span. Previous works use additional data annotations on the knowledge texts to learn a knowledge identification module in order to bypass irrelevant information, but collecting such high-quality span annotations can be costly. In this work, we leverage reinforcement learning algorithms to overcome the above challenges by introducing a novel reward function. Our reward function combines an accuracy metric and a faithfulness metric to provide a balanced quality judgment of generated responses, which can be used as a cost-effective approximation to a human preference reward model when only a few preference annotations are available. Empirical experiments on two conversational information-seeking datasets demonstrate that our method can compete with other strong supervised learning baselines.
The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of original causal concepts and theories to such complex, non-statistical data has been met with serious challenges. In response, our study proposes redefinitions of causal data into three distinct categories from the standpoint of causal structure and representation: definite data, semi-definite data, and indefinite data. Definite data chiefly pertains to statistical data used in conventional causal scenarios, while semi-definite data refers to a spectrum of data formats germane to deep learning, including time-series, images, text, and others. Indefinite data is an emergent research sphere inferred from the progression of data forms by us. To comprehensively present these three data paradigms, we elaborate on their formal definitions, differences manifested in datasets, resolution pathways, and development of research. We summarize key tasks and achievements pertaining to definite and semi-definite data from myriad research undertakings, present a roadmap for indefinite data, beginning with its current research conundrums. Lastly, we classify and scrutinize the key datasets presently utilized within these three paradigms.
In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.
Data augmentation, the artificial creation of training data for machine learning by transformations, is a widely studied research field across machine learning disciplines. While it is useful for increasing the generalization capabilities of a model, it can also address many other challenges and problems, from overcoming a limited amount of training data over regularizing the objective to limiting the amount data used to protect privacy. Based on a precise description of the goals and applications of data augmentation (C1) and a taxonomy for existing works (C2), this survey is concerned with data augmentation methods for textual classification and aims to achieve a concise and comprehensive overview for researchers and practitioners (C3). Derived from the taxonomy, we divided more than 100 methods into 12 different groupings and provide state-of-the-art references expounding which methods are highly promising (C4). Finally, research perspectives that may constitute a building block for future work are given (C5).
We address the task of automatically scoring the competency of candidates based on textual features, from the automatic speech recognition (ASR) transcriptions in the asynchronous video job interview (AVI). The key challenge is how to construct the dependency relation between questions and answers, and conduct the semantic level interaction for each question-answer (QA) pair. However, most of the recent studies in AVI focus on how to represent questions and answers better, but ignore the dependency information and interaction between them, which is critical for QA evaluation. In this work, we propose a Hierarchical Reasoning Graph Neural Network (HRGNN) for the automatic assessment of question-answer pairs. Specifically, we construct a sentence-level relational graph neural network to capture the dependency information of sentences in or between the question and the answer. Based on these graphs, we employ a semantic-level reasoning graph attention network to model the interaction states of the current QA session. Finally, we propose a gated recurrent unit encoder to represent the temporal question-answer pairs for the final prediction. Empirical results conducted on CHNAT (a real-world dataset) validate that our proposed model significantly outperforms text-matching based benchmark models. Ablation studies and experimental results with 10 random seeds also show the effectiveness and stability of our models.
This paper surveys the machine learning literature and presents machine learning as optimization models. Such models can benefit from the advancement of numerical optimization techniques which have already played a distinctive role in several machine learning settings. Particularly, mathematical optimization models are presented for commonly used machine learning approaches for regression, classification, clustering, and deep neural networks as well new emerging applications in machine teaching and empirical model learning. The strengths and the shortcomings of these models are discussed and potential research directions are highlighted.