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State-space models are widely used in many applications. In the domain of count data, one such example is the model proposed by Harvey and Fernandes (1989). Unlike many of its parameter-driven alternatives, this model is observation-driven, leading to closed-form expressions for the predictive density. In this paper, we demonstrate the need to extend the model of Harvey and Fernandes (1989) by showing that their model is not variance stationary. Our extension can accommodate for a wide range of variance processes that are either increasing, decreasing, or stationary, while keeping the tractability of the original model. Simulation and numerical studies are included to illustrate the performance of our method.

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have made significant strides, capitalizing on computer vision to enhance perception and decision-making capabilities. Nonetheless, the adaptation of these systems to diverse traffic scenarios poses challenges due to shifts in data distribution stemming from factors such as location, weather, and road infrastructure. To tackle this, we introduce a weakly-supervised label unification pipeline that amalgamates pseudo labels from a multitude of object detection models trained on heterogeneous datasets. Our pipeline engenders a unified label space through the amalgamation of labels from disparate datasets, rectifying bias and enhancing generalization. We fine-tune multiple object detection models on individual datasets, subsequently crafting a unified dataset featuring pseudo labels, meticulously validated for precision. Following this, we retrain a solitary object detection model using the merged label space, culminating in a resilient model proficient in dynamic traffic scenarios. We put forth a comprehensive evaluation of our approach, employing diverse datasets originating from varied Asian countries, effectively demonstrating its efficacy in challenging road conditions. Notably, our method yields substantial enhancements in object detection performance, culminating in a model with heightened resistance against domain shifts.

Crossed random effects structures arise in many scientific contexts. They raise severe computational problems with likelihood and Bayesian computations scaling like $N^{3/2}$ or worse for $N$ data points. In this paper we develop a composite likelihood approach for crossed random effects probit models. For data arranged in rows and columns, one likelihood uses marginal distributions of the responses as if they were independent, another uses a hierarchical model capturing all within row dependence as if the rows were independent and the third model reverses the roles of rows and columns. We find that this method has a cost that grows as $\mathrm{O}(N)$ in crossed random effects settings where using the Laplace approximation has cost that grows superlinearly. We show how to get consistent estimates of the probit slope and variance components by maximizing those three likelihoods. The algorithm scales readily to a data set of five million observations from Stitch Fix.

Temporal knowledge graphs, representing the dynamic relationships and interactions between entities over time, have been identified as a promising approach for event forecasting. However, a limitation of most temporal knowledge graph reasoning methods is their heavy reliance on the recurrence or periodicity of events, which brings challenges to inferring future events related to entities that lack historical interaction. In fact, the current state of affairs is often the result of a combination of historical information and underlying factors that are not directly observable. To this end, we investigate the limits of historical information for temporal knowledge graph extrapolation and propose a new event forecasting model called Contrastive Event Network (CENET) based on a novel training framework of historical contrastive learning. CENET learns both the historical and non-historical dependency to distinguish the most potential entities that best match the given query. Simultaneously, by launching contrastive learning, it trains representations of queries to probe whether the current moment is more dependent on historical or non-historical events. These representations further help train a binary classifier, whose output is a boolean mask, indicating the related entities in the search space. During the inference process, CENET employs a mask-based strategy to generate the final results. We evaluate our proposed model on five benchmark graphs. The results demonstrate that CENET significantly outperforms all existing methods in most metrics, achieving at least 8.3% relative improvement of Hits@1 over previous state-of-the-art baselines on event-based datasets.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

As conversational models become increasingly available to the general public, users are engaging with this technology in social interactions. Such unprecedented interaction experiences may pose considerable social and psychological risks to the users unless the technology is properly controlled. This highlights the need for scalable and robust evaluation metrics for conversational chatbots. Existing evaluation metrics aim to automate offline user evaluation and approximate human judgment of pre-curated dialogs. However, they are limited in their ability to capture subjective perceptions of users who actually interact with the bots and might not generalize to real-world settings. To address this limitation, we propose an approach to approximate online human evaluation leveraging large language models (LLMs) from the GPT family. We introduce a new Dialog system Evaluation framework based on Prompting (DEP), which enables a fully automatic evaluation pipeline that replicates live user studies and achieves an impressive correlation with human judgment (up to Pearson r=0.95 on a system level). The DEP approach involves collecting synthetic chat logs of evaluated bots with an LLM in the other-play setting, where the LLM is carefully conditioned to follow a specific scenario. We further explore different prompting approaches to produce evaluation scores with the same LLM. The best performing prompts, which contain few-shot demonstrations and instructions, show outstanding performance on the tested dataset and demonstrate the ability to generalize to other dialog corpora.

Compact neural network offers many benefits for real-world applications. However, it is usually challenging to train the compact neural networks with small parameter sizes and low computational costs to achieve the same or better model performance compared to more complex and powerful architecture. This is particularly true for multitask learning, with different tasks competing for resources. We present a simple, efficient and effective multitask learning overparameterisation neural network design by overparameterising the model architecture in training and sharing the overparameterised model parameters more effectively across tasks, for better optimisation and generalisation. Experiments on two challenging multitask datasets (NYUv2 and COCO) demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method across various convolutional networks and parameter sizes.

Decentralized and incomplete data sources are prevalent in real-world applications, posing a formidable challenge for causal inference. These sources cannot be consolidated into a single entity owing to privacy constraints, and the presence of missing values within them can potentially introduce bias to the causal estimands. We introduce a new approach for federated causal inference from incomplete data, enabling the estimation of causal effects from multiple decentralized and incomplete data sources. Our approach disentangles the loss function into multiple components, each corresponding to a specific data source with missing values. Our approach accounts for the missing data under the missing at random assumption, while also estimating higher-order statistics of the causal estimands. Our method recovers the conditional distribution of missing confounders given the observed confounders from the decentralized data sources to identify causal effects. Our framework estimates heterogeneous causal effects without the sharing of raw training data among sources, which helps to mitigate privacy risks. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated through a collection of simulated and real-world instances, illustrating its potential and practicality.

Neural machine translation (NMT) is a deep learning based approach for machine translation, which yields the state-of-the-art translation performance in scenarios where large-scale parallel corpora are available. Although the high-quality and domain-specific translation is crucial in the real world, domain-specific corpora are usually scarce or nonexistent, and thus vanilla NMT performs poorly in such scenarios. Domain adaptation that leverages both out-of-domain parallel corpora as well as monolingual corpora for in-domain translation, is very important for domain-specific translation. In this paper, we give a comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art domain adaptation techniques for NMT.

Recently, deep learning has achieved very promising results in visual object tracking. Deep neural networks in existing tracking methods require a lot of training data to learn a large number of parameters. However, training data is not sufficient for visual object tracking as annotations of a target object are only available in the first frame of a test sequence. In this paper, we propose to learn hierarchical features for visual object tracking by using tree structure based Recursive Neural Networks (RNN), which have fewer parameters than other deep neural networks, e.g. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). First, we learn RNN parameters to discriminate between the target object and background in the first frame of a test sequence. Tree structure over local patches of an exemplar region is randomly generated by using a bottom-up greedy search strategy. Given the learned RNN parameters, we create two dictionaries regarding target regions and corresponding local patches based on the learned hierarchical features from both top and leaf nodes of multiple random trees. In each of the subsequent frames, we conduct sparse dictionary coding on all candidates to select the best candidate as the new target location. In addition, we online update two dictionaries to handle appearance changes of target objects. Experimental results demonstrate that our feature learning algorithm can significantly improve tracking performance on benchmark datasets.