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We propose an individual claims reserving model based on the conditional Aalen-Johansen estimator, as developed in Bladt and Furrer (2023b). In our approach, we formulate a multi-state problem, where the underlying variable is the individual claim size, rather than time. The states in this model represent development periods, and we estimate the cumulative density function of individual claim sizes using the conditional Aalen-Johansen method as transition probabilities to an absorbing state. Our methodology reinterprets the concept of multi-state models and offers a strategy for modeling the complete curve of individual claim sizes. To illustrate our approach, we apply our model to both simulated and real datasets. Having access to the entire dataset enables us to support the use of our approach by comparing the predicted total final cost with the actual amount, as well as evaluating it in terms of the continuously ranked probability score.

We address the problem of the best uniform approximation of a continuous function on a convex domain. The approximation is by linear combinations of a finite system of functions (not necessarily Chebyshev) under arbitrary linear constraints. By modifying the concept of alternance and of the Remez iterative procedure we present a method, which demonstrates its efficiency in numerical problems. The linear rate of convergence is proved under some favourable assumptions. A special attention is paid to systems of complex exponents, Gaussian functions, lacunar algebraic and trigonometric polynomials. Applications to signal processing, linear ODE, switching dynamical systems, and to Markov-Bernstein type inequalities are considered.

We describe a family of iterative algorithms that involve the repeated execution of discrete and inverse discrete Fourier transforms. One interesting member of this family is motivated by the discrete Fourier transform uncertainty principle and involves the application of a sparsification operation to both the real domain and frequency domain data with convergence obtained when real domain sparsity hits a stable pattern. This sparsification variant has practical utility for signal denoising, in particular the recovery of a periodic spike signal in the presence of Gaussian noise. General convergence properties and denoising performance relative to existing methods are demonstrated using simulation studies. An R package implementing this technique and related resources can be found at //hrfrost.host.dartmouth.edu/IterativeFT.

The direct method is one of the most important algorithms for solving linear systems of equations, with LU decomposition comprising a significant portion of its computation time. This study explores strategies to accelerate complex LU decomposition using multiple-precision floating-point arithmetic of the multiple-component type. Specifically, we explore the potential efficiency gains using a combination of SIMDization and the 3M method for complex matrix multiplication. Our benchmark tests compare this approach with the direct method implementation in MPLAPACK, focusing on computation time and numerical errors.

The univariate dimension reduction (UDR) method stands as a way to estimate the statistical moments of the output that is effective in a large class of uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems. UDR's fundamental strategy is to approximate the original function using univariate functions so that the UQ cost only scales linearly with the dimension of the problem. Nonetheless, UDR's effectiveness can diminish when uncertain inputs have high variance, particularly when assessing the output's second and higher-order statistical moments. This paper proposes a new method, gradient-enhanced univariate dimension reduction (GUDR), that enhances the accuracy of UDR by incorporating univariate gradient function terms into the UDR approximation function. Theoretical results indicate that the GUDR approximation is expected to be one order more accurate than UDR in approximating the original function, and it is expected to generate more accurate results in computing the output's second and higher-order statistical moments. Our proposed method uses a computational graph transformation strategy to efficiently evaluate the GUDR approximation function on tensor-grid quadrature inputs, and use the tensor-grid input-output data to compute the statistical moments of the output. With an efficient automatic differentiation method to compute the gradients, our method preserves UDR's linear scaling of computation time with problem dimension. Numerical results show that the GUDR is more accurate than UDR in estimating the standard deviation of the output and has a performance comparable to the method of moments using a third-order Taylor series expansion.

Parameters of differential equations are essential to characterize intrinsic behaviors of dynamic systems. Numerous methods for estimating parameters in dynamic systems are computationally and/or statistically inadequate, especially for complex systems with general-order differential operators, such as motion dynamics. This article presents Green's matching, a computationally tractable and statistically efficient two-step method, which only needs to approximate trajectories in dynamic systems but not their derivatives due to the inverse of differential operators by Green's function. This yields a statistically optimal guarantee for parameter estimation in general-order equations, a feature not shared by existing methods, and provides an efficient framework for broad statistical inferences in complex dynamic systems.

We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by introducing an initial "deflation" step to the standard generic chaining argument. The resulting tail bound is the sum of the complexity of the "deflated function class" in terms of a generalization of Talagrand's $\gamma$ functional, and the deviation of the function instance, both of which are formulated based on the natural seminorm induced by the corresponding Cram\'{e}r functions. We also provide certain approximations for the mentioned seminorm when the function class lies in a given (exponential type) Orlicz space, that can be used to make the complexity term and the deviation term more explicit.

We present a novel framework for the development of fourth-order lattice Boltzmann schemes to tackle multidimensional nonlinear systems of conservation laws. Our numerical schemes preserve two fundamental characteristics inherent in classical lattice Boltzmann methods: a local relaxation phase and a transport phase composed of elementary shifts on a Cartesian grid. Achieving fourth-order accuracy is accomplished through the composition of second-order time-symmetric basic schemes utilizing rational weights. This enables the representation of the transport phase in terms of elementary shifts. Introducing local variations in the relaxation parameter during each stage of relaxation ensures the entropic nature of the schemes. This not only enhances stability in the long-time limit but also maintains fourth-order accuracy. To validate our approach, we conduct comprehensive testing on scalar equations and systems in both one and two spatial dimensions.

This study focuses on the development and analysis of a group of high-order implicit-explicit (IMEX) Runge--Kutta (RK) methods that are suitable for discretizing gradient flows with nonlinearity that is Lipschitz continuous. We demonstrate that these IMEX-RK methods can preserve the original energy dissipation property without any restrictions on the time-step size, thanks to a stabilization technique. The stabilization constants are solely dependent on the minimal eigenvalues that result from the Butcher tables of the IMEX-RKs. Furthermore, we establish a simple framework that can determine whether an IMEX-RK scheme is capable of preserving the original energy dissipation property or not. We also present a heuristic convergence analysis based on the truncation errors. This is the first research to prove that a linear high-order single-step scheme can ensure the original energy stability unconditionally for general gradient flows. Additionally, we provide several high-order IMEX-RK schemes that satisfy the established framework. Notably, we discovered a new four-stage third-order IMEX-RK scheme that reduces energy. Finally, we provide numerical examples to demonstrate the stability and accuracy properties of the proposed methods.

We develop a new coarse-scale approximation strategy for the nonlinear single-continuum Richards equation as an unsaturated flow over heterogeneous non-periodic media, using the online generalized multiscale finite element method (online GMsFEM) together with deep learning. A novelty of this approach is that local online multiscale basis functions are computed rapidly and frequently by utilizing deep neural networks (DNNs). More precisely, we employ the training set of stochastic permeability realizations and the computed relating online multiscale basis functions to train neural networks. The nonlinear map between such permeability fields and online multiscale basis functions is developed by our proposed deep learning algorithm. That is, in a new way, the predicted online multiscale basis functions incorporate the nonlinearity treatment of the Richards equation and refect any time-dependent changes in the problem's properties. Multiple numerical experiments in two-dimensional model problems show the good performance of this technique, in terms of predictions of the online multiscale basis functions and thus finding solutions.