In the field of domain generalization, the task of constructing a predictive model capable of generalizing to a target domain without access to target data remains challenging. This problem becomes further complicated when considering evolving dynamics between domains. While various approaches have been proposed to address this issue, a comprehensive understanding of the underlying generalization theory is still lacking. In this study, we contribute novel theoretic results that aligning conditional distribution leads to the reduction of generalization bounds. Our analysis serves as a key motivation for solving the Temporal Domain Generalization (TDG) problem through the application of Koopman Neural Operators, resulting in Temporal Koopman Networks (TKNets). By employing Koopman Operators, we effectively address the time-evolving distributions encountered in TDG using the principles of Koopman theory, where measurement functions are sought to establish linear transition relations between evolving domains. Through empirical evaluations conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets, we validate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.
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Gaussian graphical models provide a powerful framework to reveal the conditional dependency structure between multivariate variables. The process of uncovering the conditional dependency network is known as structure learning. Bayesian methods can measure the uncertainty of conditional relationships and include prior information. However, frequentist methods are often preferred due to the computational burden of the Bayesian approach. Over the last decade, Bayesian methods have seen substantial improvements, with some now capable of generating accurate estimates of graphs up to a thousand variables in mere minutes. Despite these advancements, a comprehensive review or empirical comparison of all recent methods has not been conducted. This paper delves into a wide spectrum of Bayesian approaches used for structure learning and evaluates their efficacy through a simulation study. We also demonstrate how to apply Bayesian structure learning to a real-world data set and provide directions for future research. This study gives an exhaustive overview of this dynamic field for newcomers, practitioners, and experts.
A crucial aspect of a rumor detection model is its ability to generalize, particularly its ability to detect emerging, previously unknown rumors. Past research has indicated that content-based (i.e., using solely source posts as input) rumor detection models tend to perform less effectively on unseen rumors. At the same time, the potential of context-based models remains largely untapped. The main contribution of this paper is in the in-depth evaluation of the performance gap between content and context-based models specifically on detecting new, unseen rumors. Our empirical findings demonstrate that context-based models are still overly dependent on the information derived from the rumors' source post and tend to overlook the significant role that contextual information can play. We also study the effect of data split strategies on classifier performance. Based on our experimental results, the paper also offers practical suggestions on how to minimize the effects of temporal concept drift in static datasets during the training of rumor detection methods.
In the field of causal modeling, potential outcomes (PO) and structural causal models (SCMs) stand as the predominant frameworks. However, these frameworks face notable challenges in practically modeling counterfactuals, formalized as parameters of the joint distribution of potential outcomes. Counterfactual reasoning holds paramount importance in contemporary decision-making processes, especially in scenarios that demand personalized incentives based on the joint values of $(Y(0), Y(1))$. This paper begins with an investigation of the PO and SCM frameworks for modeling counterfactuals. Through the analysis, we identify an inherent model capacity limitation, termed as the ``degenerative counterfactual problem'', emerging from the consistency rule that is the cornerstone of both frameworks. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel \textit{distribution-consistency} assumption, and in alignment with it, we propose the Distribution-consistency Structural Causal Models (DiscoSCMs) offering enhanced capabilities to model counterfactuals. To concretely reveal the enhanced model capacity, we introduce a new identifiable causal parameter, \textit{the probability of consistency}, which holds practical significance within DiscoSCM alone, showcased with a personalized incentive example. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive set of theoretical results about the ``Ladder of Causation'' within the DiscoSCM framework. We hope it opens new avenues for future research of counterfactual modeling, ultimately enhancing our understanding of causality and its real-world applications.
We are interested in building low-dimensional surrogate models to reduce optimization costs, while having theoretical guarantees that the optimum will satisfy the constraints of the full-size model, by making conservative approximations. The surrogate model is constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR). To ensure conservativeness, two new approaches are proposed: the first one using bootstrapping, and the second one using concentration inequalities. Those two techniques are based on a stochastic argument and thus will only enforce conservativeness up to a user-defined probability threshold. The method has applications in the context of optimization using the active subspace method for dimensionality reduction of the objective function and the constraints, addressing recorded issues about constraint violations. The resulting algorithms are tested on a toy optimization problem in thermal design.
Opponent modelling has proven effective in enhancing the decision-making of the controlled agent by constructing models of opponent agents. However, existing methods often rely on access to the observations and actions of opponents, a requirement that is infeasible when such information is either unobservable or challenging to obtain. To address this issue, we introduce Distributional Opponent-aided Multi-agent Actor-Critic (DOMAC), the first speculative opponent modelling algorithm that relies solely on local information (i.e., the controlled agent's observations, actions, and rewards). Specifically, the actor maintains a speculated belief about the opponents using the tailored speculative opponent models that predict the opponents' actions using only local information. Moreover, DOMAC features distributional critic models that estimate the return distribution of the actor's policy, yielding a more fine-grained assessment of the actor's quality. This thus more effectively guides the training of the speculative opponent models that the actor depends upon. Furthermore, we formally derive a policy gradient theorem with the proposed opponent models. Extensive experiments under eight different challenging multi-agent benchmark tasks within the MPE, Pommerman and StarCraft Multiagent Challenge (SMAC) demonstrate that our DOMAC successfully models opponents' behaviours and delivers superior performance against state-of-the-art methods with a faster convergence speed.
Sampling from the output distributions of quantum computations comprising only commuting gates, known as instantaneous quantum polynomial (IQP) computations, is believed to be intractable for classical computers, and hence this task has become a leading candidate for testing the capabilities of quantum devices. Here we demonstrate that for an arbitrary IQP circuit undergoing dephasing or depolarizing noise, whose depth is greater than a critical $O(1)$ threshold, the output distribution can be efficiently sampled by a classical computer. Unlike other simulation algorithms for quantum supremacy tasks, we do not require assumptions on the circuit's architecture, on anti-concentration properties, nor do we require $\Omega(\log(n))$ circuit depth. We take advantage of the fact that IQP circuits have deep sections of diagonal gates, which allows the noise to build up predictably and induce a large-scale breakdown of entanglement within the circuit. Our results suggest that quantum supremacy experiments based on IQP circuits may be more susceptible to classical simulation than previously thought.
Characterizing the minimal communication needed for the quantum channel simulation is a fundamental task in the quantum information theory. In this paper, we show that, under the purified distance, the quantum channel simulation can be directly achieved via quantum state splitting without using a technique known as the de Finetti reduction, and thus provide a pair of tighter one-shot bounds. Using the bounds, we also recover the quantum reverse Shannon theorem in a much simpler way.
Graphs are used widely to model complex systems, and detecting anomalies in a graph is an important task in the analysis of complex systems. Graph anomalies are patterns in a graph that do not conform to normal patterns expected of the attributes and/or structures of the graph. In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been studied extensively and have successfully performed difficult machine learning tasks in node classification, link prediction, and graph classification thanks to the highly expressive capability via message passing in effectively learning graph representations. To solve the graph anomaly detection problem, GNN-based methods leverage information about the graph attributes (or features) and/or structures to learn to score anomalies appropriately. In this survey, we review the recent advances made in detecting graph anomalies using GNN models. Specifically, we summarize GNN-based methods according to the graph type (i.e., static and dynamic), the anomaly type (i.e., node, edge, subgraph, and whole graph), and the network architecture (e.g., graph autoencoder, graph convolutional network). To the best of our knowledge, this survey is the first comprehensive review of graph anomaly detection methods based on GNNs.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
Multimodal sentiment analysis is a very actively growing field of research. A promising area of opportunity in this field is to improve the multimodal fusion mechanism. We present a novel feature fusion strategy that proceeds in a hierarchical fashion, first fusing the modalities two in two and only then fusing all three modalities. On multimodal sentiment analysis of individual utterances, our strategy outperforms conventional concatenation of features by 1%, which amounts to 5% reduction in error rate. On utterance-level multimodal sentiment analysis of multi-utterance video clips, for which current state-of-the-art techniques incorporate contextual information from other utterances of the same clip, our hierarchical fusion gives up to 2.4% (almost 10% error rate reduction) over currently used concatenation. The implementation of our method is publicly available in the form of open-source code.
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