Demand forecasts are the crucial basis for numerous business decisions, ranging from inventory management to strategic facility planning. While machine learning (ML) approaches offer accuracy gains, their interpretability and acceptance are notoriously lacking. Addressing this dilemma, we introduce Hierarchical Neural Additive Models for time series (HNAM). HNAM expands upon Neural Additive Models (NAM) by introducing a time-series specific additive model with a level and interacting covariate components. Covariate interactions are only allowed according to a user-specified interaction hierarchy. For example, weekday effects may be estimated independently of other covariates, whereas a holiday effect may depend on the weekday and an additional promotion may depend on both former covariates that are lower in the interaction hierarchy. Thereby, HNAM yields an intuitive forecasting interface in which analysts can observe the contribution for each known covariate. We evaluate the proposed approach and benchmark its performance against other state-of-the-art machine learning and statistical models extensively on real-world retail data. The results reveal that HNAM offers competitive prediction performance whilst providing plausible explanations.
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Recent advancements in generative artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed collaborative work processes, yet the impact on team performance remains underexplored. Here we examine the role of generative AI in enhancing or replacing traditional team dynamics using a randomized controlled experiment with 435 participants across 122 teams. We show that teams augmented with generative AI significantly outperformed those relying solely on human collaboration across various performance measures. Interestingly, teams with multiple AIs did not exhibit further gains, indicating diminishing returns with increased AI integration. Our analysis suggests that centralized AI usage by a few team members is more effective than distributed engagement. Additionally, individual-AI pairs matched the performance of conventional teams, suggesting a reduced need for traditional team structures in some contexts. However, despite this capability, individual-AI pairs still fell short of the performance levels achieved by AI-assisted teams. These findings underscore that while generative AI can replace some traditional team functions, more comprehensively integrating AI within team structures provides superior benefits, enhancing overall effectiveness beyond individual efforts.
Bayesian hypothesis tests leverage posterior probabilities, Bayes factors, or credible intervals to inform data-driven decision making. We propose a framework for power curve approximation with such hypothesis tests. We present a fast approach to explore the approximate sampling distribution of posterior probabilities when the conditions for the Bernstein-von Mises theorem are satisfied. We extend that approach to consider segments of such sampling distributions in a targeted manner for each sample size explored. These sampling distribution segments are used to construct power curves for various types of posterior analyses. Our resulting method for power curve approximation is orders of magnitude faster than conventional power curve estimation for Bayesian hypothesis tests. We also prove the consistency of the corresponding power estimates and sample size recommendations under certain conditions.
Despite significant strides in multimodal tasks, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are plagued by the critical issue of hallucination. The reliable detection of such hallucinations in MLLMs has, therefore, become a vital aspect of model evaluation and the safeguarding of practical application deployment. Prior research in this domain has been constrained by a narrow focus on singular tasks, an inadequate range of hallucination categories addressed, and a lack of detailed granularity. In response to these challenges, our work expands the investigative horizons of hallucination detection. We present a novel meta-evaluation benchmark, MHaluBench, meticulously crafted to facilitate the evaluation of advancements in hallucination detection methods. Additionally, we unveil a novel unified multimodal hallucination detection framework, UNIHD, which leverages a suite of auxiliary tools to validate the occurrence of hallucinations robustly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of UNIHD through meticulous evaluation and comprehensive analysis. We also provide strategic insights on the application of specific tools for addressing various categories of hallucinations.
Despite persistent efforts to understand the dynamics of creativity of scientists over careers in terms of productivity, impact, and prize, little is known about the dynamics of scientists' disruptive efforts that affect individual academic careers and drive scientific advance. Drawing on millions of data over six decades and across nineteen disciplines, associating the publication records of individual scientists with the disruption index, we systematically quantify the temporal pattern of disruptive ideas over individual scientific careers, providing a detailed understanding of the macro phenomenon of scientific stagnation from the individual perspective. We start by checking the relationship between disruption-based and citation-based publication profiles. Next, we observe the finite inequality in the disruptive productivity of scientists, diminishing gradually as the level of disruption increases. We then identify the initial burst phenomenon in disruption dynamics. It is further revealed that while early engagement in high disruption frictions away initial productivity, compared to initial advantage in productivity or impact, initial high disruption ensures more subsequent academic viability evidenced by a longer career span and relatively final higher productivity, but does not necessarily guarantee academic success throughout careers. Further analysis shows that increasing disruptive work is uncorrelated to overall productivity but negatively correlated with the overall impact. However, increasing disruptive work in the early career is associated with higher overall productivity, yet lower overall productivity in the later career. Our research underscores the urgent need for a policy shift that encourages a balance between the pursuit of disruptive efforts and the achievement of impactful outcomes.
The popularity of data science as a discipline and its importance in the emerging economy and industrial progress dictate that machine learning be democratized for the masses. This also means that the current practice of workforce training using machine learning tools, which requires low-level statistical and algorithmic details, is a barrier that needs to be addressed. Similar to data management languages such as SQL, machine learning needs to be practiced at a conceptual level to help make it a staple tool for general users. In particular, the technical sophistication demanded by existing machine learning frameworks is prohibitive for many scientists who are not computationally savvy or well versed in machine learning techniques. The learning curve to use the needed machine learning tools is also too high for them to take advantage of these powerful platforms to rapidly advance science. In this paper, we introduce a new declarative machine learning query language, called {\em MQL}, for naive users. We discuss its merit and possible ways of implementing it over a traditional relational database system. We discuss two materials science experiments implemented using MQL on a materials science workflow system called MatFlow.
The integration of technology into exercise regimens has emerged as a strategy to enhance normal human capabilities and return human motor function after injury or illness by enhancing motor learning and retention. Much research has focused on how active devices, whether confined to a lab or made into a wearable format, can apply forces at set times and conditions to optimize the process of learning. However, the focus on active force production often forces devices to either be confined to simple movements or interventions. As such, in this paper, we investigate how passive device behaviors can contribute to the process of motor learning by themselves. Our approach involves using a wearable resistance (WR) device, which is outfitted with elastic bands, to apply a force field that changes in response to a person's movements while performing exercises. We develop a method to measure the produced forces from the device without impeding the function and we characterize the device's force generation abilities. We then present a study assessing the impact of the WR device on motor learning of proper squat form compared to visual or no feedback. Biometrics such as knee and hip angles were used to monitor and assess subject performance. Our findings indicate that the force fields produced while training with the WR device can improve performance in full-body exercises similarly to a more direct visual feedback mechanism, though the improvement is not consistent across all performance metrics. Through our research, we contribute important insights into the application of passive wearable resistance technology in practical exercise settings.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Benefit from the quick development of deep learning techniques, salient object detection has achieved remarkable progresses recently. However, there still exists following two major challenges that hinder its application in embedded devices, low resolution output and heavy model weight. To this end, this paper presents an accurate yet compact deep network for efficient salient object detection. More specifically, given a coarse saliency prediction in the deepest layer, we first employ residual learning to learn side-output residual features for saliency refinement, which can be achieved with very limited convolutional parameters while keep accuracy. Secondly, we further propose reverse attention to guide such side-output residual learning in a top-down manner. By erasing the current predicted salient regions from side-output features, the network can eventually explore the missing object parts and details which results in high resolution and accuracy. Experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach compares favorably against state-of-the-art methods, and with advantages in terms of simplicity, efficiency (45 FPS) and model size (81 MB).
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
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