Predicting future events always comes with uncertainty, but traditional non-Bayesian methods cannot distinguish certain from uncertain predictions or explain the confidence in their predictions. In survival analysis, Bayesian methods applied to state-of-the-art solutions in the healthcare and biomedical field are still novel, and their implications have not been fully evaluated. In this paper, we study the benefits of modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks for survival analysis with a focus on prediction and calibration performance. For this, we present a Bayesian deep learning framework that consists of three Bayesian network architectures, which we train by optimizing the Cox partial likelihood and combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty with model-specific epistemic uncertainty. This enables us to provide uncertainty estimates as credible intervals when predicting the survival curve or as a probability density function over the predicted median survival times. For our empirical analyses, we evaluated our proposed method on four benchmark datasets and found that our method demonstrates prediction performance comparable to the state-of-the-art based on the concordance index and outperforms all other Cox-based approaches in terms of the mean absolute error. Our work explicitly compares the extent to which different Bayesian approximation techniques differ from each other and improves the prediction over traditional non-Bayesian alternatives.
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Networking：IFIP International Conferences on Networking。
Explanation：國際網絡會議。
Publisher：IFIP。
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Modeling the shape of garments has received much attention, but most existing approaches assume the garments to be worn by someone, which constrains the range of shapes they can assume. In this work, we address shape recovery when garments are being manipulated instead of worn, which gives rise to an even larger range of possible shapes. To this end, we leverage the implicit sewing patterns (ISP) model for garment modeling and extend it by adding a diffusion-based deformation prior to represent these shapes. To recover 3D garment shapes from incomplete 3D point clouds acquired when the garment is folded, we map the points to UV space, in which our priors are learned, to produce partial UV maps, and then fit the priors to recover complete UV maps and 2D to 3D mappings. Experimental results demonstrate the superior reconstruction accuracy of our method compared to previous ones, especially when dealing with large non-rigid deformations arising from the manipulations.
As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts. A distribution shift occurs when the underlying data-generating process changes, leading to a deviation in the model's performance. The prediction interval, which captures the range of likely outcomes for a given prediction, serves as a crucial tool for characterizing uncertainties induced by their underlying distribution. In this paper, we propose methodologies for aggregating prediction intervals to obtain one with minimal width and adequate coverage on the target domain under unsupervised domain shift, under which we have labeled samples from a related source domain and unlabeled covariates from the target domain. Our analysis encompasses scenarios where the source and the target domain are related via i) a bounded density ratio, and ii) a measure-preserving transformation. Our proposed methodologies are computationally efficient and easy to implement. Beyond illustrating the performance of our method through a real-world dataset, we also delve into the theoretical details. This includes establishing rigorous theoretical guarantees, coupled with finite sample bounds, regarding the coverage and width of our prediction intervals. Our approach excels in practical applications and is underpinned by a solid theoretical framework, ensuring its reliability and effectiveness across diverse contexts.
Exchangeability concerning a continuous exposure, X, implies no confounding bias when identifying average exposure effects of X, AEE(X). When X is measured with error (Xep), two challenges arise in identifying AEE(X). Firstly, exchangeability regarding Xep does not equal exchangeability regarding X. Secondly, the non-differential error assumption (NDEA) could be overly stringent in practice. To address them, this article proposes unifying exchangeability and exposure and confounder measurement errors with three novel concepts. The first, Probabilistic Exchangeability (PE), states that the outcomes of those with Xep=e are probabilistically exchangeable with the outcomes of those truly exposed to X=eT. The relationship between AEE(Xep) and AEE(X) in risk difference and ratio scales is mathematically expressed as a probabilistic certainty, termed exchangeability probability (Pe). Squared Pe (Pe2) quantifies the extent to which AEE(Xep) differs from AEE(X) due to exposure measurement error through mechanisms not akin to confounding mechanisms. The coefficient of determination (R2) in the regression of Xep against X may sometimes be sufficient to measure Pe2. The second concept, Emergent Pseudo Confounding (EPC), describes the bias introduced by exposure measurement error through mechanisms akin to confounding mechanisms. PE requires controlling for EPC, which is weaker than NDEA. The third, Emergent Confounding, describes when bias due to confounder measurement error arises. Adjustment for E(P)C can be performed like confounding adjustment. This paper provides maximum insight into when AEE(Xep) is an appropriate surrogate of AEE(X) and how to measure the difference between these two. Differential errors could be addressed and may not compromise causal inference.
Since the introduction of the Kolmogorov complexity of binary sequences in the 1960s, there have been significant advancements in the topic of complexity measures for randomness assessment, which are of fundamental importance in theoretical computer science and of practical interest in cryptography. This survey reviews notable research from the past four decades on the linear, quadratic and maximum-order complexities of pseudo-random sequences and their relations with Lempel-Ziv complexity, expansion complexity, 2-adic complexity, and correlation measures.
We present a novel and efficient method for synthesis of parameterized distributed protocols by sketching. Our method is both syntax-guided and counterexample-guided, and utilizes a fast equivalence reduction technique that enables efficient completion of protocol sketches, often significantly reducing the search space of candidate completions by several orders of magnitude. To our knowledge, our tool, Scythe, is the first synthesis tool for the widely used specification language TLA+. We evaluate Scythe on a diverse benchmark of distributed protocols, demonstrating the ability to synthesize a large scale distributed Raft-based dynamic reconfiguration protocol beyond the scale of what existing synthesis techniques can handle.
Entanglement serves as the resource to empower quantum computing. Recent progress has highlighted its positive impact on learning quantum dynamics, wherein the integration of entanglement into quantum operations or measurements of quantum machine learning (QML) models leads to substantial reductions in training data size, surpassing a specified prediction error threshold. However, an analytical understanding of how the entanglement degree in data affects model performance remains elusive. In this study, we address this knowledge gap by establishing a quantum no-free-lunch (NFL) theorem for learning quantum dynamics using entangled data. Contrary to previous findings, we prove that the impact of entangled data on prediction error exhibits a dual effect, depending on the number of permitted measurements. With a sufficient number of measurements, increasing the entanglement of training data consistently reduces the prediction error or decreases the required size of the training data to achieve the same prediction error. Conversely, when few measurements are allowed, employing highly entangled data could lead to an increased prediction error. The achieved results provide critical guidance for designing advanced QML protocols, especially for those tailored for execution on early-stage quantum computers with limited access to quantum resources.
Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.
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