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This paper presents the first systematic study of the evaluation of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) for discrete dynamical systems under stochastic assumptions, with a focus on wildfire prediction. We develop a framework to study the impact of stochasticity on two classes of evaluation metrics: classification-based metrics, which assess fidelity to observed ground truth (GT), and proper scoring rules, which test fidelity-to-statistic. Our findings reveal that evaluating for fidelity-to-statistic is a reliable alternative in highly stochastic scenarios. We extend our analysis to real-world wildfire data, highlighting limitations in traditional wildfire prediction evaluation methods, and suggest interpretable stochasticity-compatible alternatives.

Entity Alignment (EA) is vital for integrating diverse knowledge graph (KG) data, playing a crucial role in data-driven AI applications. Traditional EA methods primarily rely on comparing entity embeddings, but their effectiveness is constrained by the limited input KG data and the capabilities of the representation learning techniques. Against this backdrop, we introduce ChatEA, an innovative framework that incorporates large language models (LLMs) to improve EA. To address the constraints of limited input KG data, ChatEA introduces a KG-code translation module that translates KG structures into a format understandable by LLMs, thereby allowing LLMs to utilize their extensive background knowledge to improve EA accuracy. To overcome the over-reliance on entity embedding comparisons, ChatEA implements a two-stage EA strategy that capitalizes on LLMs' capability for multi-step reasoning in a dialogue format, thereby enhancing accuracy while preserving efficiency. Our experimental results affirm ChatEA's superior performance, highlighting LLMs' potential in facilitating EA tasks.

Recommendation algorithms play a pivotal role in shaping our media choices, which makes it crucial to comprehend their long-term impact on user behavior. These algorithms are often linked to two critical outcomes: homogenization, wherein users consume similar content despite disparate underlying preferences, and the filter bubble effect, wherein individuals with differing preferences only consume content aligned with their preferences (without much overlap with other users). Prior research assumes a trade-off between homogenization and filter bubble effects and then shows that personalized recommendations mitigate filter bubbles by fostering homogenization. However, because of this assumption of a tradeoff between these two effects, prior work cannot develop a more nuanced view of how recommendation systems may independently impact homogenization and filter bubble effects. We develop a more refined definition of homogenization and the filter bubble effect by decomposing them into two key metrics: how different the average consumption is between users (inter-user diversity) and how varied an individual's consumption is (intra-user diversity). We then use a novel agent-based simulation framework that enables a holistic view of the impact of recommendation systems on homogenization and filter bubble effects. Our simulations show that traditional recommendation algorithms (based on past behavior) mainly reduce filter bubbles by affecting inter-user diversity without significantly impacting intra-user diversity. Building on these findings, we introduce two new recommendation algorithms that take a more nuanced approach by accounting for both types of diversity.

The report demonstrates the benefits (in terms of improved claims loss modeling) of harnessing the value of Federated Learning (FL) to learn a single model across multiple insurance industry datasets without requiring the datasets themselves to be shared from one company to another. The application of FL addresses two of the most pressing concerns: limited data volume and data variety, which are caused by privacy concerns, the rarity of claim events, the lack of informative rating factors, etc.. During each round of FL, collaborators compute improvements on the model using their local private data, and these insights are combined to update a global model. Such aggregation of insights allows for an increase to the effectiveness in forecasting claims losses compared to models individually trained at each collaborator. Critically, this approach enables machine learning collaboration without the need for raw data to leave the compute infrastructure of each respective data owner. Additionally, the open-source framework, OpenFL, that is used in our experiments is designed so that it can be run using confidential computing as well as with additional algorithmic protections against leakage of information via the shared model updates. In such a way, FL is implemented as a privacy-enhancing collaborative learning technique that addresses the challenges posed by the sensitivity and privacy of data in traditional machine learning solutions. This paper's application of FL can also be expanded to other areas including fraud detection, catastrophe modeling, etc., that have a similar need to incorporate data privacy into machine learning collaborations. Our framework and empirical results provide a foundation for future collaborations among insurers, regulators, academic researchers, and InsurTech experts.

Optimal control problems can be solved by applying the Pontryagin maximum principle and then solving for a Hamiltonian dynamical system. In this paper, we propose novel learning frameworks to tackle optimal control problems. By applying the Pontryagin maximum principle to the original optimal control problem, the learning focus shifts to reduced Hamiltonian dynamics and corresponding adjoint variables. The reduced Hamiltonian networks can be learned by going backward in time and then minimizing loss function deduced from the Pontryagin maximum principle's conditions. The learning process is further improved by progressively learning a posterior distribution of reduced Hamiltonians, utilizing a variational autoencoder which leads to more effective path exploration process. We apply our learning frameworks to control tasks and obtain competitive results.

Datalogo is an extension of Datalog that allows for aggregation and recursion over an arbitrary commutative semiring. Like Datalog, Datalogo programs can be evaluated via the natural iterative algorithm until a fixed point is reached. However unlike Datalog, the natural iterative evaluation of some Datalogo programs over some semirings may not converge. It is known that the commutative semirings for which the iterative evaluation of Datalogo programs is guaranteed to converge are exactly those semirings that are stable [7]. Previously, the best known upper bound on the number of iterations until convergence over $p$-stable semirings is $\sum_{i=1}^n (p+2)^i = \Theta(p^n)$ steps, where $n$ is (essentially) the output size. We establish that, in fact, the natural iterative evaluation of a Datalogoprogram over a $p$-stable semiring converges within a polynomial number of iterations. In particular our upper bound is $O( \sigma p n^2( n^2 \lg \lambda + \lg \sigma))$ where $\sigma$ is the number of elements in the semiring present in either the input databases or the Datalogo program, and $\lambda$ is the maximum number of terms in any product in the Datalogo program.

A successful negotiation demands a deep comprehension of the conversation context, Theory-of-Mind (ToM) skills to infer the partner's motives, as well as strategic reasoning and effective communication, making it challenging for automated systems. Given the remarkable performance of LLMs across a variety of NLP tasks, in this work, we aim to understand how LLMs can advance different aspects of negotiation research, ranging from designing dialogue systems to providing pedagogical feedback and scaling up data collection practices. To this end, we devise a methodology to analyze the multifaceted capabilities of LLMs across diverse dialogue scenarios covering all the time stages of a typical negotiation interaction. Our analysis adds to the increasing evidence for the superiority of GPT-4 across various tasks while also providing insights into specific tasks that remain difficult for LLMs. For instance, the models correlate poorly with human players when making subjective assessments about the negotiation dialogues and often struggle to generate responses that are contextually appropriate as well as strategically advantageous.

Numerous robust estimators exist as alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when a completely observed ground-up loss severity sample dataset is available. However, the options for robust alternatives to MLE become significantly limited when dealing with grouped loss severity data, with only a handful of methods like least squares, minimum Hellinger distance, and optimal bounded influence function available. This paper introduces a novel robust estimation technique, the Method of Truncated Moments (MTuM), specifically designed to estimate the tail index of a Pareto distribution from grouped data. Inferential justification of MTuM is established by employing the central limit theorem and validating them through a comprehensive simulation study.

We explore the use of aggregative crowdsourced forecasting (ACF) as a mechanism to help operationalize ``collective intelligence'' of human-machine teams for coordinated actions. We adopt the definition for Collective Intelligence as: ``A property of groups that emerges from synergies among data-information-knowledge, software-hardware, and individuals (those with new insights as well as recognized authorities) that enables just-in-time knowledge for better decisions than these three elements acting alone.'' Collective Intelligence emerges from new ways of connecting humans and AI to enable decision-advantage, in part by creating and leveraging additional sources of information that might otherwise not be included. Aggregative crowdsourced forecasting (ACF) is a recent key advancement towards Collective Intelligence wherein predictions (X\% probability that Y will happen) and rationales (why I believe it is this probability that X will happen) are elicited independently from a diverse crowd, aggregated, and then used to inform higher-level decision-making. This research asks whether ACF, as a key way to enable Operational Collective Intelligence, could be brought to bear on operational scenarios (i.e., sequences of events with defined agents, components, and interactions) and decision-making, and considers whether such a capability could provide novel operational capabilities to enable new forms of decision-advantage.

Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.