This paper studies the problem of designing an optimal sequence of interventions in a causal graphical model to minimize cumulative regret with respect to the best intervention in hindsight. This is, naturally, posed as a causal bandit problem. The focus is on causal bandits for linear structural equation models (SEMs) and soft interventions. It is assumed that the graph's structure is known and has $N$ nodes. Two linear mechanisms, one soft intervention and one observational, are assumed for each node, giving rise to $2^N$ possible interventions. Majority of the existing causal bandit algorithms assume that at least the interventional distributions of the reward node's parents are fully specified. However, there are $2^N$ such distributions (one corresponding to each intervention), acquiring which becomes prohibitive even in moderate-sized graphs. This paper dispenses with the assumption of knowing these distributions or their marginals. Two algorithms are proposed for the frequentist (UCB-based) and Bayesian (Thompson Sampling-based) settings. The key idea of these algorithms is to avoid directly estimating the $2^N$ reward distributions and instead estimate the parameters that fully specify the SEMs (linear in $N$) and use them to compute the rewards. In both algorithms, under boundedness assumptions on noise and the parameter space, the cumulative regrets scale as $\tilde{\cal O} (d^{L+\frac{1}{2}} \sqrt{NT})$, where $d$ is the graph's maximum degree, and $L$ is the length of its longest causal path. Additionally, a minimax lower of $\Omega(d^{\frac{L}{2}-2}\sqrt{T})$ is presented, which suggests that the achievable and lower bounds conform in their scaling behavior with respect to the horizon $T$ and graph parameters $d$ and $L$.
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The geometric optimization of crystal structures is a procedure widely used in Chemistry that changes the geometrical placement of the particles inside a structure. It is called structural relaxation and constitutes a local minimization problem with a non-convex objective function whose domain complexity increases according to the number of particles involved. In this work we study the performance of the two most popular first order optimization methods in structural relaxation. Although frequently employed, there is a lack of their study in this context from an algorithmic point of view. We run each algorithm in combination with a constant step size, which provides a benchmark for the methods' analysis and direct comparison. We also design dynamic step size rules and study how these improve the two algorithms' performance. Our results show that there is a trade-off between convergence rate and the possibility of an experiment to succeed, hence we construct a function to assign utility to each method based on our respective preference. The function is built according to a recently introduced model of preference indication concerning algorithms with deadline and their run time. Finally, building on all our insights from the experimental results, we provide algorithmic recipes that best correspond to each of the presented preferences and select one recipe as the optimal for equally weighted preferences. Alongside our results we present our open source Python software veltiCRYS, which was used to perform the geometric optimization experiments. Our implementation, can be easily edited to accommodate other energy functions and is especially targeted for testing different methods in structural relaxation.
In the prophet inequality problem, a gambler faces a sequence of items arriving online with values drawn independently from known distributions. On seeing an item, the gambler must choose whether to accept its value as her reward and quit the game, or reject it and continue. The gambler's aim is to maximize her expected reward relative to the expected maximum of the values of all items. Since the seventies, a tight bound of 1/2 has been known for this competitive ratio in the setting where the items arrive in an adversarial order (Krengel and Sucheston, 1977, 1978). However, the optimum ratio still remains unknown in the order selection setting, where the gambler selects the arrival order, as well as in prophet secretary, where the items arrive in a random order. Moreover, it is not even known whether a separation exists between the two settings. In this paper, we show that the power of order selection allows the gambler to guarantee a strictly better competitive ratio than if the items arrive randomly. For the order selection setting, we identify an instance for which Peng and Tang's (FOCS'22) state-of-the-art algorithm performs no better than their claimed competitive ratio of (approximately) 0.7251, thus illustrating the need for an improved approach. We therefore extend their design and provide a more general algorithm design framework, using which we show that their ratio can be beaten, by designing a 0.7258-competitive algorithm. For the random order setting, we improve upon Correa, Saona and Ziliotto's (SODA'19) 0.732-hardness result to show a hardness of 0.7254 for general algorithms - even in the setting where the gambler knows the arrival order beforehand, thus establishing a separation between the order selection and random order settings.
Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims to identify causal relations between events in unstructured texts. This is a very challenging task, because causal relations are usually expressed by implicit associations between events. Existing methods usually capture such associations by directly modeling the texts with pre-trained language models, which underestimate two kinds of semantic structures vital to the ECI task, namely, event-centric structure and event-associated structure. The former includes important semantic elements related to the events to describe them more precisely, while the latter contains semantic paths between two events to provide possible supports for ECI. In this paper, we study the implicit associations between events by modeling the above explicit semantic structures, and propose a Semantic Structure Integration model (SemSIn). It utilizes a GNN-based event aggregator to integrate the event-centric structure information, and employs an LSTM-based path aggregator to capture the event-associated structure information between two events. Experimental results on three widely used datasets show that SemSIn achieves significant improvements over baseline methods.
Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (\emph{e.g.}, a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (\emph{e.g.}, a drug's attributes) and individual features~(\emph{e.g.}, a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.
Causal effect estimation from observational data is a fundamental task in empirical sciences. It becomes particularly challenging when unobserved confounders are involved in a system. This paper focuses on front-door adjustment -- a classic technique which, using observed mediators allows to identify causal effects even in the presence of unobserved confounding. While the statistical properties of the front-door estimation are quite well understood, its algorithmic aspects remained unexplored for a long time. Recently, Jeong, Tian, and Barenboim [NeurIPS 2022] have presented the first polynomial-time algorithm for finding sets satisfying the front-door criterion in a given directed acyclic graph (DAG), with an $O(n^3(n+m))$ run time, where $n$ denotes the number of variables and $m$ the number of edges of the causal graph. In our work, we give the first linear-time, i.e., $O(n+m)$, algorithm for this task, which thus reaches the asymptotically optimal time complexity. This result implies an $O(n(n+m))$ delay enumeration algorithm of all front-door adjustment sets, again improving previous work by Jeong et al.\ by a factor of $n^3$. Moreover, we provide the first linear-time algorithm for finding a minimal front-door adjustment set. We offer implementations of our algorithms in multiple programming languages to facilitate practical usage and empirically validate their feasibility, even for large graphs.
The importance of unspanned macroeconomic variables for Dynamic Term Structure Models has been intensively discussed in the literature. To our best knowledge the earlier studies considered only linear interactions between the economy and the real-world dynamics of interest rates in DTSMs. We propose a generalized modelling setup for Gaussian DTSMs which allows for unspanned nonlinear associations between the two and we exploit it in forecasting. Specifically, we construct a custom sequential Monte Carlo estimation and forecasting scheme where we introduce Gaussian Process priors to model nonlinearities. Sequential scheme we propose can also be used with dynamic portfolio optimization to assess the potential of generated economic value to investors. The methodology is presented using US Treasury data and selected macroeconomic indices. Namely, we look at core inflation and real economic activity. We contrast the results obtained from the nonlinear model with those stemming from an application of a linear model. Unlike for real economic activity, in case of core inflation we find that, compared to linear models, application of nonlinear models leads to statistically significant gains in economic value across considered maturities.
Generative modeling has recently undergone remarkable advancements, primarily propelled by the transformative implications of Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs). The impressive capability of these models, however, often entails significant computational overhead during both training and inference. To tackle this challenge, we present Diff-Pruning, an efficient compression method tailored for learning lightweight diffusion models from pre-existing ones, without the need for extensive re-training. The essence of Diff-Pruning is encapsulated in a Taylor expansion over pruned timesteps, a process that disregards non-contributory diffusion steps and ensembles informative gradients to identify important weights. Our empirical assessment, undertaken across four diverse datasets highlights two primary benefits of our proposed method: 1) Efficiency: it enables approximately a 50% reduction in FLOPs at a mere 10% to 20% of the original training expenditure; 2) Consistency: the pruned diffusion models inherently preserve generative behavior congruent with their pre-trained progenitors. Code is available at \url{//github.com/VainF/Diff-Pruning}.
Subsampling of node sets is useful in contexts such as multilevel methods, computer graphics, and machine learning. On uniform grid-based node sets, the process of subsampling is simple. However, on node sets with high density variation, the process of coarsening a node set through node elimination is more interesting. A novel method for the subsampling of variable density node sets is presented here. Additionally, two novel node set quality measures are presented to determine the ability of a subsampling method to preserve the quality of an initial node set. The new subsampling method is demonstrated on the test problems of solving the Poisson and Laplace equations by multilevel radial basis function-generated finite differences (RBF-FD) iterations. High-order solutions with robust convergence are achieved in linear time with respect to node set size.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
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