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Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for projecting future TC impacts on human society considering the changing climate [5]. However, past trends of TC structure/energy remain uncertain due to limited observations; subjective-analyzed and spatiotemporal-heterogeneous "best-track" datasets lead to reduced confidence in the assessed TC repose to climate change [6, 7]. Here, we use deep learning to reconstruct past "observations" and yield an objective global TC wind profile dataset during 1981 to 2020, facilitating a comprehensive examination of TC structure/energy. By training with uniquely labeled data integrating best tracks and numerical model analysis of 2004 to 2018 TCs, our model converts multichannel satellite imagery to a 0-750-km wind profile of axisymmetric surface winds. The model performance is verified to be sufficient for climate studies by comparing it to independent satellite-radar surface winds. Based on the new homogenized dataset, the major TC proportion has increased by ~13% in the past four decades. Moreover, the proportion of extremely high-energy TCs has increased by ~25%, along with an increasing trend (> one standard deviation of the 40-y variability) of the mean total energy of high-energy TCs. Although the warming ocean favors TC intensification, the TC track migration to higher latitudes and altered environments further affect TC structure/energy. This new deep learning method/dataset reveals novel trends regarding TC structure extremes and may help verify simulations/studies regarding TCs in the changing climate.

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TC:IEEE Transactions on Computers。 Explanation:電氣電子工程師學會計算機期刊。 Publisher:IEEE。 SIT:

The Skolem problem is a long-standing open problem in linear dynamical systems: can a linear recurrence sequence (LRS) ever reach 0 from a given initial configuration? Similarly, the positivity problem asks whether the LRS stays positive from an initial configuration. Deciding Skolem (or positivity) has been open for half a century: the best known decidability results are for LRS with special properties (e.g., low order recurrences). But these problems are easier for "uninitialized" variants, where the initial configuration is not fixed but can vary arbitrarily: checking if there is an initial configuration from which the LRS stays positive can be decided in polynomial time (Tiwari in 2004, Braverman in 2006). In this paper, we consider problems that lie between the initialized and uninitialized variants. More precisely, we ask if 0 (resp. negative numbers) can be avoided from every initial configuration in a neighborhood of a given initial configuration. This can be considered as a robust variant of the Skolem (resp. positivity) problem. We show that these problems lie at the frontier of decidability: if the neighbourhood is given as part of the input, then robust Skolem and robust positivity are Diophantine hard, i.e., solving either would entail major breakthroughs in Diophantine approximations, as happens for (non-robust) positivity. However, if one asks whether such a neighbourhood exists, then the problems turn out to be decidable with PSPACE complexity. Our techniques also allow us to tackle robustness for ultimate positivity, which asks whether there is a bound on the number of steps after which the LRS remains positive. There are two variants depending on whether we ask for a "uniform" bound on this number of steps. For the non-uniform variant, when the neighbourhood is open, the problem turns out to be tractable, even when the neighbourhood is given as input.

In settings with interference, it is common to utilize estimands defined by exposure mappings to summarize the impact of variation in treatment assignments local to the ego. This paper studies their causal interpretation under weak restrictions on interference. We demonstrate that the estimands can exhibit unpalatable sign reversals under conventional identification conditions. This motivates the formulation of sign preservation criteria for causal interpretability. To satisfy preferred criteria, it is necessary to impose restrictions on interference, either in potential outcomes or selection into treatment. We provide sufficient conditions and show that they are satisfied by a nonparametric model allowing for a complex form of interference in both the outcome and selection stages.

This study investigates a strongly-coupled system of partial differential equations (PDE) governing heat transfer in a copper rod, longitudinal vibrations, and total charge accumulation at electrodes within a magnetizable piezoelectric beam. Conducted within the transmission line framework, the analysis reveals profound interactions between traveling electromagnetic and mechanical waves in magnetizable piezoelectric beams, despite disparities in their velocities. Findings suggest that in the open-loop scenario, the interaction of heat and beam dynamics lacks exponential stability solely considering thermal effects. To confront this challenge, two types of boundary-type state feedback controllers are proposed: (i) employing static feedback controllers entirely and (ii) adopting a hybrid approach wherein the electrical controller dynamically enhances system dynamics. In both cases, solutions of the PDE systems demonstrate exponential stability through meticulously formulated Lyapunov functions with diverse multipliers. The proposed proof technique establishes a robust foundation for demonstrating the exponential stability of Finite-Difference-based model reductions as the discretization parameter approaches zero.

Kernel techniques are among the most influential approaches in data science and statistics. Under mild conditions, the reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated to a kernel is capable of encoding the independence of $M\ge 2$ random variables. Probably the most widespread independence measure relying on kernels is the so-called Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC; also referred to as distance covariance in the statistics literature). Despite various existing HSIC estimators designed since its introduction close to two decades ago, the fundamental question of the rate at which HSIC can be estimated is still open. In this work, we prove that the minimax optimal rate of HSIC estimation on $\mathbb R^d$ for Borel measures containing the Gaussians with continuous bounded translation-invariant characteristic kernels is $\mathcal O\!\left(n^{-1/2}\right)$. Specifically, our result implies the optimality in the minimax sense of many of the most-frequently used estimators (including the U-statistic, the V-statistic, and the Nystr\"om-based one) on $\mathbb R^d$.

Shuffling gradient methods, which are also known as stochastic gradient descent (SGD) without replacement, are widely implemented in practice, particularly including three popular algorithms: Random Reshuffle (RR), Shuffle Once (SO), and Incremental Gradient (IG). Compared to the empirical success, the theoretical guarantee of shuffling gradient methods was not well-understanding for a long time. Until recently, the convergence rates had just been established for the average iterate for convex functions and the last iterate for strongly convex problems (using squared distance as the metric). However, when using the function value gap as the convergence criterion, existing theories cannot interpret the good performance of the last iterate in different settings (e.g., constrained optimization). To bridge this gap between practice and theory, we prove last-iterate convergence rates for shuffling gradient methods with respect to the objective value even without strong convexity. Our new results either (nearly) match the existing last-iterate lower bounds or are as fast as the previous best upper bounds for the average iterate.

The Yang and Prentice (YP) regression models have garnered interest from the scientific community due to their ability to analyze data whose survival curves exhibit intersection. These models include proportional hazards (PH) and proportional odds (PO) models as specific cases. However, they encounter limitations when dealing with multivariate survival data due to potential dependencies between the times-to-event. A solution is introducing a frailty term into the hazard functions, making it possible for the times-to-event to be considered independent, given the frailty term. In this study, we propose a new class of YP models that incorporate frailty. We use the exponential distribution, the piecewise exponential distribution (PE), and Bernstein polynomials (BP) as baseline functions. Our approach adopts a Bayesian methodology. The proposed models are evaluated through a simulation study, which shows that the YP frailty models with BP and PE baselines perform similarly to the generator parametric model of the data. We apply the models in two real data sets.

The growing popularity of generative AI, particularly ChatGPT, has sparked both enthusiasm and caution among practitioners and researchers in education. To effectively harness the full potential of ChatGPT in educational contexts, it is crucial to analyze its impact and suitability for different educational purposes. This paper takes an initial step in exploring the applicability of ChatGPT in a computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL) environment. Using statistical analysis, we validate the shifts in student interactions during an asynchronous group brainstorming session by introducing ChatGPT as an instantaneous question-answering agent.

Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.

This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are successful in many computer vision tasks. However, the most accurate DNNs require millions of parameters and operations, making them energy, computation and memory intensive. This impedes the deployment of large DNNs in low-power devices with limited compute resources. Recent research improves DNN models by reducing the memory requirement, energy consumption, and number of operations without significantly decreasing the accuracy. This paper surveys the progress of low-power deep learning and computer vision, specifically in regards to inference, and discusses the methods for compacting and accelerating DNN models. The techniques can be divided into four major categories: (1) parameter quantization and pruning, (2) compressed convolutional filters and matrix factorization, (3) network architecture search, and (4) knowledge distillation. We analyze the accuracy, advantages, disadvantages, and potential solutions to the problems with the techniques in each category. We also discuss new evaluation metrics as a guideline for future research.

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