Predicting future outcomes is a prevalent application of machine learning in social impact domains. Examples range from predicting student success in education to predicting disease risk in healthcare. Practitioners recognize that the ultimate goal is not just to predict but to act effectively. Increasing evidence suggests that relying on outcome predictions for downstream interventions may not have desired results. In most domains there exists a multitude of possible interventions for each individual, making the challenge of taking effective action more acute. Even when causal mechanisms connecting the individual's latent states to outcomes is well understood, in any given instance (a specific student or patient), practitioners still need to infer -- from budgeted measurements of latent states -- which of many possible interventions will be most effective for this individual. With this in mind, we ask: when are accurate predictors of outcomes helpful for identifying the most suitable intervention? Through a simple model encompassing actions, latent states, and measurements, we demonstrate that pure outcome prediction rarely results in the most effective policy for taking actions, even when combined with other measurements. We find that except in cases where there is a single decisive action for improving the outcome, outcome prediction never maximizes "action value", the utility of taking actions. Making measurements of actionable latent states, where specific actions lead to desired outcomes, considerably enhances the action value compared to outcome prediction, and the degree of improvement depends on action costs and the outcome model. This analysis emphasizes the need to go beyond generic outcome prediction in interventional settings by incorporating knowledge of plausible actions and latent states.
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In reliable decision-making systems based on machine learning, models have to be robust to distributional shifts or provide the uncertainty of their predictions. In node-level problems of graph learning, distributional shifts can be especially complex since the samples are interdependent. To evaluate the performance of graph models, it is important to test them on diverse and meaningful distributional shifts. However, most graph benchmarks considering distributional shifts for node-level problems focus mainly on node features, while structural properties are also essential for graph problems. In this work, we propose a general approach for inducing diverse distributional shifts based on graph structure. We use this approach to create data splits according to several structural node properties: popularity, locality, and density. In our experiments, we thoroughly evaluate the proposed distributional shifts and show that they can be quite challenging for existing graph models. We also reveal that simple models often outperform more sophisticated methods on the considered structural shifts. Finally, our experiments provide evidence that there is a trade-off between the quality of learned representations for the base classification task under structural distributional shift and the ability to separate the nodes from different distributions using these representations.
The performance of machine learning models depends on the quality of the underlying data. Malicious actors can attack the model by poisoning the training data. Current detectors are tied to either specific data types, models, or attacks, and therefore have limited applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper presents a novel fully-agnostic framework, DIVA (Detecting InVisible Attacks), that detects attacks solely relying on analyzing the potentially poisoned data set. DIVA is based on the idea that poisoning attacks can be detected by comparing the classifier's accuracy on poisoned and clean data and pre-trains a meta-learner using Complexity Measures to estimate the otherwise unknown accuracy on a hypothetical clean dataset. The framework applies to generic poisoning attacks. For evaluation purposes, in this paper, we test DIVA on label-flipping attacks.
Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.
Image scaling is an integral part of machine learning and computer vision systems. Unfortunately, this preprocessing step is vulnerable to so-called image-scaling attacks where an attacker makes unnoticeable changes to an image so that it becomes a new image after scaling. This opens up new ways for attackers to control the prediction or to improve poisoning and backdoor attacks. While effective techniques exist to prevent scaling attacks, their detection has not been rigorously studied yet. Consequently, it is currently not possible to reliably spot these attacks in practice. This paper presents the first in-depth systematization and analysis of detection methods for image-scaling attacks. We identify two general detection paradigms and derive novel methods from them that are simple in design yet significantly outperform previous work. We demonstrate the efficacy of these methods in a comprehensive evaluation with all major learning platforms and scaling algorithms. First, we show that image-scaling attacks modifying the entire scaled image can be reliably detected even under an adaptive adversary. Second, we find that our methods provide strong detection performance even if only minor parts of the image are manipulated. As a result, we can introduce a novel protection layer against image-scaling attacks.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used for modeling complex interactions between entities represented as vertices of a graph. Despite recent efforts to theoretically analyze the expressive power of GNNs, a formal characterization of their ability to model interactions is lacking. The current paper aims to address this gap. Formalizing strength of interactions through an established measure known as separation rank, we quantify the ability of certain GNNs to model interaction between a given subset of vertices and its complement, i.e. between the sides of a given partition of input vertices. Our results reveal that the ability to model interaction is primarily determined by the partition's walk index -- a graph-theoretical characteristic defined by the number of walks originating from the boundary of the partition. Experiments with common GNN architectures corroborate this finding. As a practical application of our theory, we design an edge sparsification algorithm named Walk Index Sparsification (WIS), which preserves the ability of a GNN to model interactions when input edges are removed. WIS is simple, computationally efficient, and in our experiments has markedly outperformed alternative methods in terms of induced prediction accuracy. More broadly, it showcases the potential of improving GNNs by theoretically analyzing the interactions they can model.
Double descent presents a counter-intuitive aspect within the machine learning domain, and researchers have observed its manifestation in various models and tasks. While some theoretical explanations have been proposed for this phenomenon in specific contexts, an accepted theory to account for its occurrence in deep learning remains yet to be established. In this study, we revisit the phenomenon of double descent and demonstrate that its occurrence is strongly influenced by the presence of noisy data. Through conducting a comprehensive analysis of the feature space of learned representations, we unveil that double descent arises in imperfect models trained with noisy data. We argue that double descent is a consequence of the model first learning the noisy data until interpolation and then adding implicit regularization via over-parameterization acquiring therefore capability to separate the information from the noise. We postulate that double descent should never occur in well-regularized models.
We study the minority-opinion dynamics over a fully-connected network of $n$ nodes with binary opinions. Upon activation, a node receives a sample of opinions from a limited number of neighbors chosen uniformly at random. Each activated node then adopts the opinion that is least common within the received sample. Unlike all other known consensus dynamics, we prove that this elementary protocol behaves in dramatically different ways, depending on whether activations occur sequentially or in parallel. Specifically, we show that its expected consensus time is exponential in $n$ under asynchronous models, such as asynchronous GOSSIP. On the other hand, despite its chaotic nature, we show that it converges within $O(\log^2 n)$ rounds with high probability under synchronous models, such as synchronous GOSSIP. Finally, our results shed light on the bit-dissemination problem, that was previously introduced to model the spread of information in biological scenarios. Specifically, our analysis implies that the minority-opinion dynamics is the first stateless solution to this problem, in the parallel passive-communication setting, achieving convergence within a polylogarithmic number of rounds. This, together with a known lower bound for sequential stateless dynamics, implies a parallel-vs-sequential gap for this problem that is nearly quadratic in the number $n$ of nodes. This is in contrast to all known results for problems in this area, which exhibit a linear gap between the parallel and the sequential setting.
During the pre-training step of natural language models, the main objective is to learn a general representation of the pre-training dataset, usually requiring large amounts of textual data to capture the complexity and diversity of natural language. Contrasting this, in most cases, the size of the data available to solve the specific downstream task is often dwarfed by the aforementioned pre-training dataset, especially in domains where data is scarce. We introduce controlled randomness, i.e. noise, into the training process to improve fine-tuning language models and explore the performance of targeted noise in addition to the parameters of these models. We find that adding such noise can improve the performance in our two downstream tasks of joint named entity recognition and relation extraction and text summarization.
Stochastic gradients closely relate to both optimization and generalization of deep neural networks (DNNs). Some works attempted to explain the success of stochastic optimization for deep learning by the arguably heavy-tail properties of gradient noise, while other works presented theoretical and empirical evidence against the heavy-tail hypothesis on gradient noise. Unfortunately, formal statistical tests for analyzing the structure and heavy tails of stochastic gradients in deep learning are still under-explored. In this paper, we mainly make two contributions. First, we conduct formal statistical tests on the distribution of stochastic gradients and gradient noise across both parameters and iterations. Our statistical tests reveal that dimension-wise gradients usually exhibit power-law heavy tails, while iteration-wise gradients and stochastic gradient noise caused by minibatch training usually do not exhibit power-law heavy tails. Second, we further discover that the covariance spectra of stochastic gradients have the power-law structures overlooked by previous studies and present its theoretical implications for training of DNNs. While previous studies believed that the anisotropic structure of stochastic gradients matters to deep learning, they did not expect the gradient covariance can have such an elegant mathematical structure. Our work challenges the existing belief and provides novel insights on the structure of stochastic gradients in deep learning.
While deep reinforcement learning (RL) has fueled multiple high-profile successes in machine learning, it is held back from more widespread adoption by its often poor data efficiency and the limited generality of the policies it produces. A promising approach for alleviating these limitations is to cast the development of better RL algorithms as a machine learning problem itself in a process called meta-RL. Meta-RL is most commonly studied in a problem setting where, given a distribution of tasks, the goal is to learn a policy that is capable of adapting to any new task from the task distribution with as little data as possible. In this survey, we describe the meta-RL problem setting in detail as well as its major variations. We discuss how, at a high level, meta-RL research can be clustered based on the presence of a task distribution and the learning budget available for each individual task. Using these clusters, we then survey meta-RL algorithms and applications. We conclude by presenting the open problems on the path to making meta-RL part of the standard toolbox for a deep RL practitioner.
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