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Efficiently approximating the probability of system failure has gained increasing importance as expensive simulations begin to play a larger role in reliability quantification tasks in areas such as structural design, power grid design, and safety certification among others. This work derives credible intervals on the probability of failure for a simulation which we assume is a realizations of a Gaussian process. We connect these intervals to binary classification error and comment on their applicability to a broad class of iterative schemes proposed throughout the literature. A novel iterative sampling scheme is proposed which can suggest multiple samples per batch for simulations with parallel implementations. We empirically test our scalable, open-source implementation on a variety simulations including a Tsunami model where failure is quantified in terms of maximum wave hight.

The problem of optimizing discrete phases in a reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS) to maximize the received power at a user equipment is addressed. Necessary and sufficient conditions to achieve this maximization are given. These conditions are employed in an algorithm to achieve the maximization. New versions of the algorithm are given that are proven to achieve convergence in N or fewer steps whether the direct link is completely blocked or not, where N is the number of the RIS elements, whereas previously published results achieve this in KN or 2N number of steps where K is the number of discrete phases, e.g., [1], [2]. Thus, for a discrete-phase RIS, the techniques presented in this paper achieve the optimum received power in the smallest number of steps published in the literature. In addition, in each of those N steps, the techniques presented in this paper determine only one or a small number of phase shifts with a simple elementwise update rule, which result in a substantial reduction of computation time, as compared to the algorithms in the literature, e.g., [2], [3].

Phase transitions, characterized by abrupt shifts between macroscopic patterns of organization, are ubiquitous in complex systems. Despite considerable research in the physical and natural sciences, the empirical study of this phenomenon in societal systems is relatively underdeveloped. The goal of this study is to explore whether the dynamics of collective civil unrest can be plausibly characterized as a sequence of recurrent phase shifts, with each phase having measurable and identifiable latent characteristics. Building on previous efforts to characterize civil unrest as a self-organized critical system, we introduce a macro-level statistical model of civil unrest and evaluate its plausibility using a comprehensive dataset of civil unrest events in 170 countries from 1946 to 2017. Our findings demonstrate that the macro-level phase model effectively captures the characteristics of civil unrest data from diverse countries globally and that universal mechanisms may underlie certain aspects of the dynamics of civil unrest. We also introduce a scale to quantify a country's long-term unrest per unit of time and show that civil unrest events tend to cluster geographically, with the magnitude of civil unrest concentrated in specific regions. Our approach has the potential to identify and measure phase transitions in various collective human phenomena beyond civil unrest, contributing to a better understanding of complex social systems.

The performance of recommendation algorithms is closely tied to key characteristics of the data sets they use, such as sparsity, popularity bias, and preference distributions. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive explanatory analysis to shed light on the impact of a broad range of data characteristics within the point-of-interest (POI) recommendation domain. To accomplish this, we extend prior methodologies used to characterize traditional recommendation problems by introducing new explanatory variables specifically relevant to POI recommendation. We subdivide a POI recommendation data set on New York City into domain-driven subsamples to measure the effect of varying these characteristics on different state-of-the-art POI recommendation algorithms in terms of accuracy, novelty, and item exposure. Our findings, obtained through the application of an explanatory framework employing multiple-regression models, reveal that the relevant independent variables encompass all categories of data characteristics and account for as much as $R^2 = $ 85-90\% of the accuracy and item exposure achieved by the algorithms. Our study reaffirms the pivotal role of prominent data characteristics, such as density, popularity bias, and the distribution of check-ins in POI recommendation. Additionally, we unveil novel factors, such as the proximity of user activity to the city center and the duration of user activity. In summary, our work reveals why certain POI recommendation algorithms excel in specific recommendation problems and, conversely, offers practical insights into which data characteristics should be modified (or explicitly recognized) to achieve better performance.

Fast inverse kinematics (IK) is a central component in robotic motion planning. For complex robots, IK methods are often based on root search and non-linear optimization algorithms. These algorithms can be massively sped up using a neural network to predict a good initial guess, which can then be refined in a few numerical iterations. Besides previous work on learning-based IK, we present a learning approach for the fundamentally more complex problem of IK with collision avoidance. We do this in diverse and previously unseen environments. From a detailed analysis of the IK learning problem, we derive a network and unsupervised learning architecture that removes the need for a sample data generation step. Using the trained network's prediction as an initial guess for a two-stage Jacobian-based solver allows for fast and accurate computation of the collision-free IK. For the humanoid robot, Agile Justin (19 DoF), the collision-free IK is solved in less than 10 milliseconds (on a single CPU core) and with an accuracy of 10^-4 m and 10^-3 rad based on a high-resolution world model generated from the robot's integrated 3D sensor. Our method massively outperforms a random multi-start baseline in a benchmark with the 19 DoF humanoid and challenging 3D environments. It requires ten times less training time than a supervised training method while achieving comparable results.

This paper investigates a large unitarily invariant system (LUIS) involving a unitarily invariant sensing matrix, an arbitrarily fixed signal distribution, and forward error control (FEC) coding. A universal Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization is considered for constructing orthogonal approximate message passing (OAMP), enabling its applicability to a wide range of prototypes without the constraint of differentiability. We develop two single-input-single-output variational transfer functions for OAMP with Lipschitz continuous local estimators, facilitating an analysis of achievable rates. Furthermore, when the state evolution of OAMP has a unique fixed point, we reveal that OAMP can achieve the constrained capacity predicted by the replica method of LUIS based on matched FEC coding, regardless of the signal distribution. The replica method is rigorously validated for LUIS with Gaussian signaling and certain sub-classes of LUIS with arbitrary signal distributions. Several area properties are established based on the variational transfer functions of OAMP. Meanwhile, we present a replica constrained capacity-achieving coding principle for LUIS. This principle serves as the basis for optimizing irregular low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes specifically tailored for binary signaling in our simulation results. The performance of OAMP with these optimized codes exhibits a remarkable improvement over the unoptimized codes and even surpasses the well-known Turbo-LMMSE algorithm. For quadrature phase-shift keying (QPSK) modulation, we observe bit error rates (BER) performance near the replica constrained capacity across diverse channel conditions.

The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of original causal concepts and theories to such complex, non-statistical data has been met with serious challenges. In response, our study proposes redefinitions of causal data into three distinct categories from the standpoint of causal structure and representation: definite data, semi-definite data, and indefinite data. Definite data chiefly pertains to statistical data used in conventional causal scenarios, while semi-definite data refers to a spectrum of data formats germane to deep learning, including time-series, images, text, and others. Indefinite data is an emergent research sphere inferred from the progression of data forms by us. To comprehensively present these three data paradigms, we elaborate on their formal definitions, differences manifested in datasets, resolution pathways, and development of research. We summarize key tasks and achievements pertaining to definite and semi-definite data from myriad research undertakings, present a roadmap for indefinite data, beginning with its current research conundrums. Lastly, we classify and scrutinize the key datasets presently utilized within these three paradigms.

Knowledge graph reasoning (KGR), aiming to deduce new facts from existing facts based on mined logic rules underlying knowledge graphs (KGs), has become a fast-growing research direction. It has been proven to significantly benefit the usage of KGs in many AI applications, such as question answering and recommendation systems, etc. According to the graph types, the existing KGR models can be roughly divided into three categories, \textit{i.e.,} static models, temporal models, and multi-modal models. The early works in this domain mainly focus on static KGR and tend to directly apply general knowledge graph embedding models to the reasoning task. However, these models are not suitable for more complex but practical tasks, such as inductive static KGR, temporal KGR, and multi-modal KGR. To this end, multiple works have been developed recently, but no survey papers and open-source repositories comprehensively summarize and discuss models in this important direction. To fill the gap, we conduct a survey for knowledge graph reasoning tracing from static to temporal and then to multi-modal KGs. Concretely, the preliminaries, summaries of KGR models, and typical datasets are introduced and discussed consequently. Moreover, we discuss the challenges and potential opportunities. The corresponding open-source repository is shared on GitHub: //github.com/LIANGKE23/Awesome-Knowledge-Graph-Reasoning.

Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.

We introduce a multi-task setup of identifying and classifying entities, relations, and coreference clusters in scientific articles. We create SciERC, a dataset that includes annotations for all three tasks and develop a unified framework called Scientific Information Extractor (SciIE) for with shared span representations. The multi-task setup reduces cascading errors between tasks and leverages cross-sentence relations through coreference links. Experiments show that our multi-task model outperforms previous models in scientific information extraction without using any domain-specific features. We further show that the framework supports construction of a scientific knowledge graph, which we use to analyze information in scientific literature.