Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is challenging due to complex time series (TS) which express three seasonal patterns and a nonlinear trend. This paper proposes a novel hybrid hierarchical deep learning model that deals with multiple seasonality and produces both point forecasts and predictive intervals (PIs). It combines exponential smoothing (ES) and a recurrent neural network (RNN). ES extracts dynamically the main components of each individual TS and enables on-the-fly deseasonalization, which is particularly useful when operating on a relatively small data set. A multi-layer RNN is equipped with a new type of dilated recurrent cell designed to efficiently model both short and long-term dependencies in TS. To improve the internal TS representation and thus the model's performance, RNN learns simultaneously both the ES parameters and the main mapping function transforming inputs into forecasts. We compare our approach against several baseline methods, including classical statistical methods and machine learning (ML) approaches, on STLF problems for 35 European countries. The empirical study clearly shows that the proposed model has high expressive power to solve nonlinear stochastic forecasting problems with TS including multiple seasonality and significant random fluctuations. In fact, it outperforms both statistical and state-of-the-art ML models in terms of accuracy.
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The optimal design of magnetic devices becomes intractable using current computational methods when the number of design parameters is high. The emerging physics-informed deep learning framework has the potential to alleviate this curse of dimensionality. The objective of this paper is to investigate the ability of physics-informed neural networks to learn the magnetic field response as a function of design parameters in the context of a two-dimensional (2-D) magnetostatic problem. Our approach is as follows. We derive the variational principle for 2-D parametric magnetostatic problems, and prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution that satisfies the equations of the governing physics, i.e., Maxwell's equations. We use a deep neural network (DNN) to represent the magnetic field as a function of space and a total of ten parameters that describe geometric features and operating point conditions. We train the DNN by minimizing the physics-informed loss function using a variant of stochastic gradient descent. Subsequently, we conduct systematic numerical studies using a parametric EI-core electromagnet problem. In these studies, we vary the DNN architecture trying more than one hundred different possibilities. For each study, we evaluate the accuracy of the DNN by comparing its predictions to those of finite element analysis. In an exhaustive non-parametric study, we observe that sufficiently parameterized dense networks result in relative errors of less than 1%. Residual connections always improve relative errors for the same number of training iterations. Also, we observe that Fourier encoding features aligned with the device geometry do improve the rate of convergence, albeit higher-order harmonics are not necessary. Finally, we demonstrate our approach on a ten-dimensional problem with parameterized geometry.
Neural networks are powerful function estimators, leading to their status as a paradigm of choice for modeling structured data. However, unlike other structured representations that emphasize the modularity of the problem -- e.g., factor graphs -- neural networks are usually monolithic mappings from inputs to outputs, with a fixed computation order. This limitation prevents them from capturing different directions of computation and interaction between the modeled variables. In this paper, we combine the representational strengths of factor graphs and of neural networks, proposing undirected neural networks (UNNs): a flexible framework for specifying computations that can be performed in any order. For particular choices, our proposed models subsume and extend many existing architectures: feed-forward, recurrent, self-attention networks, auto-encoders, and networks with implicit layers. We demonstrate the effectiveness of undirected neural architectures, both unstructured and structured, on a range of tasks: tree-constrained dependency parsing, convolutional image classification, and sequence completion with attention. By varying the computation order, we show how a single UNN can be used both as a classifier and a prototype generator, and how it can fill in missing parts of an input sequence, making them a promising field for further research.
Big-data-based artificial intelligence (AI) supports profound evolution in almost all of science and technology. However, modeling and forecasting multi-physical systems remain a challenge due to unavoidable data scarcity and noise. Improving the generalization ability of neural networks by "teaching" domain knowledge and developing a new generation of models combined with the physical laws have become promising areas of machine learning research. Different from "deep" fully-connected neural networks embedded with physical information (PINN), a novel shallow framework named physics-informed convolutional network (PICN) is recommended from a CNN perspective, in which the physical field is generated by a deconvolution layer and a single convolution layer. The difference fields forming the physical operator are constructed using the pre-trained shallow convolution layer. An efficient linear interpolation network calculates the loss function involving boundary conditions and the physical constraints in irregular geometry domains. The effectiveness of the current development is illustrated through some numerical cases involving the solving (and estimation) of nonlinear physical operator equations and recovering physical information from noisy observations. Its potential advantage in approximating physical fields with multi-frequency components indicates that PICN may become an alternative neural network solver in physics-informed machine learning.
Accurate short-term solar and wind power predictions play an important role in the planning and operation of power systems. However, the short-term power prediction of renewable energy has always been considered a complex regression problem, owing to the fluctuation and intermittence of output powers and the law of dynamic change with time due to local weather conditions, i.e. spatio-temporal correlation. To capture the spatio-temporal features simultaneously, this paper proposes a new graph neural network-based short-term power forecasting approach, which combines the graph convolutional network (GCN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). Specifically, the GCN is employed to learn complex spatial correlations between adjacent renewable energies, and the LSTM is used to learn dynamic changes of power generation curves. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid approach can model the spatio-temporal correlation of renewable energies, and its performance outperforms popular baselines on real-world datasets.
Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.
The essence of multivariate sequential learning is all about how to extract dependencies in data. These data sets, such as hourly medical records in intensive care units and multi-frequency phonetic time series, often time exhibit not only strong serial dependencies in the individual components (the "marginal" memory) but also non-negligible memories in the cross-sectional dependencies (the "joint" memory). Because of the multivariate complexity in the evolution of the joint distribution that underlies the data generating process, we take a data-driven approach and construct a novel recurrent network architecture, termed Memory-Gated Recurrent Networks (mGRN), with gates explicitly regulating two distinct types of memories: the marginal memory and the joint memory. Through a combination of comprehensive simulation studies and empirical experiments on a range of public datasets, we show that our proposed mGRN architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art architectures targeting multivariate time series.
Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.
Predicting the road traffic speed is a challenging task due to different types of roads, abrupt speed changes, and spatial dependencies between roads, which requires the modeling of dynamically changing spatial dependencies among roads and temporal patterns over long input sequences. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention (STGRAT) that effectively captures the spatio-temporal dynamics in road networks. The features of our approach mainly include spatial attention, temporal attention, and spatial sentinel vectors. The spatial attention takes the graph structure information (e.g., distance between roads) and dynamically adjusts spatial correlation based on road states. The temporal attention is responsible for capturing traffic speed changes, while the sentinel vectors allow the model to retrieve new features from spatially correlated nodes or preserve existing features. The experimental results show that STGRAT outperforms existing models, especially in difficult conditions where traffic speeds rapidly change (e.g., rush hours). We additionally provide a qualitative study to analyze when and where STGRAT mainly attended to make accurate predictions during a rush-hour time.
Network embedding methodologies, which learn a distributed vector representation for each vertex in a network, have attracted considerable interest in recent years. Existing works have demonstrated that vertex representation learned through an embedding method provides superior performance in many real-world applications, such as node classification, link prediction, and community detection. However, most of the existing methods for network embedding only utilize topological information of a vertex, ignoring a rich set of nodal attributes (such as, user profiles of an online social network, or textual contents of a citation network), which is abundant in all real-life networks. A joint network embedding that takes into account both attributional and relational information entails a complete network information and could further enrich the learned vector representations. In this work, we present Neural-Brane, a novel Neural Bayesian Personalized Ranking based Attributed Network Embedding. For a given network, Neural-Brane extracts latent feature representation of its vertices using a designed neural network model that unifies network topological information and nodal attributes; Besides, it utilizes Bayesian personalized ranking objective, which exploits the proximity ordering between a similar node-pair and a dissimilar node-pair. We evaluate the quality of vertex embedding produced by Neural-Brane by solving the node classification and clustering tasks on four real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method over the state-of-the-art existing methods.
We improve automatic correction of grammatical, orthographic, and collocation errors in text using a multilayer convolutional encoder-decoder neural network. The network is initialized with embeddings that make use of character N-gram information to better suit this task. When evaluated on common benchmark test data sets (CoNLL-2014 and JFLEG), our model substantially outperforms all prior neural approaches on this task as well as strong statistical machine translation-based systems with neural and task-specific features trained on the same data. Our analysis shows the superiority of convolutional neural networks over recurrent neural networks such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks in capturing the local context via attention, and thereby improving the coverage in correcting grammatical errors. By ensembling multiple models, and incorporating an N-gram language model and edit features via rescoring, our novel method becomes the first neural approach to outperform the current state-of-the-art statistical machine translation-based approach, both in terms of grammaticality and fluency.
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