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In this paper, we consider recent progress in estimating the average treatment effect when extreme inverse probability weights are present and focus on methods that account for a possible violation of the positivity assumption. These methods aim at estimating the treatment effect on the subpopulation of patients for whom there is a clinical equipoise. We propose a systematic approach to determine their related causal estimands and develop new insights into the properties of the weights targeting such a subpopulation. Then, we examine the roles of overlap weights, matching weights, Shannon's entropy weights, and beta weights. This helps us characterize and compare their underlying estimators, analytically and via simulations, in terms of the accuracy, precision, and root mean squared error. Moreover, we study the asymptotic behaviors of their augmented estimators (that mimic doubly robust estimators), which lead to improved estimations when either the propensity or the regression models are correctly specified. Based on the analytical and simulation results, we conclude that overall overlap weights are preferable to matching weights, especially when there is moderate or extreme violations of the positivity assumption. Finally, we illustrate the methods using a real data example marked by extreme inverse probability weights.

Meta-learning aims to extract useful inductive biases from a set of related datasets. In Bayesian meta-learning, this is typically achieved by constructing a prior distribution over neural network parameters. However, specifying families of computationally viable prior distributions over the high-dimensional neural network parameters is difficult. As a result, existing approaches resort to meta-learning restrictive diagonal Gaussian priors, severely limiting their expressiveness and performance. To circumvent these issues, we approach meta-learning through the lens of functional Bayesian neural network inference, which views the prior as a stochastic process and performs inference in the function space. Specifically, we view the meta-training tasks as samples from the data-generating process and formalize meta-learning as empirically estimating the law of this stochastic process. Our approach can seamlessly acquire and represent complex prior knowledge by meta-learning the score function of the data-generating process marginals instead of parameter space priors. In a comprehensive benchmark, we demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of predictive accuracy and substantial improvements in the quality of uncertainty estimates.

Accurate high-altitude wind forecasting is important for air traffic control. And the large volume of data available for this task makes deep neural network-based models a possibility. However, special methods are required because the data is measured only sparsely: along the main aircraft trajectories and arranged sparsely in space, namely along the main air corridors. Several deep learning approaches have been proposed, and in this work, we show that Transformers can fit this data efficiently and are able to extrapolate coherently from a context set. We show this by an extensive comparison of Transformers to numerous existing deep learning-based baselines in the literature. Besides high-altitude wind forecasting, we compare competing models on other dynamical physical systems, namely those modelled by partial differential equations, in particular the Poisson equation and Darcy Flow equation. For these experiments, in the case where the data is arranged non-regularly in space, Transformers outperform all the other evaluated methods. We also compared them in a more standard setup where the data is arranged on a grid and show that the Transformers are competitive with state-of-the-art methods, even though it does not require regular spacing. The code and datasets of the different experiments will be made publicly available at publication time.

Modern Building Automation Systems (BASs), as the brain that enables the smartness of a smart building, often require increased connectivity both among system components as well as with outside entities, such as optimized automation via outsourced cloud analytics and increased building-grid integrations. However, increased connectivity and accessibility come with increased cyber security threats. BASs were historically developed as closed environments with limited cyber-security considerations. As a result, BASs in many buildings are vulnerable to cyber-attacks that may cause adverse consequences, such as occupant discomfort, excessive energy usage, and unexpected equipment downtime. Therefore, there is a strong need to advance the state-of-the-art in cyber-physical security for BASs and provide practical solutions for attack mitigation in buildings. However, an inclusive and systematic review of BAS vulnerabilities, potential cyber-attacks with impact assessment, detection & defense approaches, and cyber-secure resilient control strategies is currently lacking in the literature. This review paper fills the gap by providing a comprehensive up-to-date review of cyber-physical security for BASs at three levels in commercial buildings: management level, automation level, and field level. The general BASs vulnerabilities and protocol-specific vulnerabilities for the four dominant BAS protocols are reviewed, followed by a discussion on four attack targets and seven potential attack scenarios. The impact of cyber-attacks on BASs is summarized as signal corruption, signal delaying, and signal blocking. The typical cyber-attack detection and defense approaches are identified at the three levels. Cyber-secure resilient control strategies for BASs under attack are categorized into passive and active resilient control schemes. Open challenges and future opportunities are finally discussed.

In solving multi-modal, multi-objective optimization problems (MMOPs), the objective is not only to find a good representation of the Pareto-optimal front (PF) in the objective space but also to find all equivalent Pareto-optimal subsets (PSS) in the variable space. Such problems are practically relevant when a decision maker (DM) is interested in identifying alternative designs with similar performance. There has been significant research interest in recent years to develop efficient algorithms to deal with MMOPs. However, the existing algorithms still require prohibitive number of function evaluations (often in several thousands) to deal with problems involving as low as two objectives and two variables. The algorithms are typically embedded with sophisticated, customized mechanisms that require additional parameters to manage the diversity and convergence in the variable and the objective spaces. In this letter, we introduce a steady-state evolutionary algorithm for solving MMOPs, with a simple design and no additional userdefined parameters that need tuning compared to a standard EA. We report its performance on 21 MMOPs from various test suites that are widely used for benchmarking using a low computational budget of 1000 function evaluations. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with six state-of-the-art algorithms (MO Ring PSO SCD, DN-NSGAII, TriMOEA-TA&R, CPDEA, MMOEA/DC and MMEA-WI). The proposed algorithm exhibits significantly better performance than the above algorithms based on the established metrics including IGDX, PSP and IGD. We hope this study would encourage design of simple, efficient and generalized algorithms to improve its uptake for practical applications.

In this paper, we address the dichotomy between heterogeneous models and simultaneous training in Federated Learning (FL) via a clustering framework. We define a new clustering model for FL based on the (optimal) local models of the users: two users belong to the same cluster if their local models are close; otherwise they belong to different clusters. A standard algorithm for clustered FL is proposed in \cite{ghosh_efficient_2021}, called \texttt{IFCA}, which requires \emph{suitable} initialization and the knowledge of hyper-parameters like the number of clusters (which is often quite difficult to obtain in practical applications) to converge. We propose an improved algorithm, \emph{Successive Refine Federated Clustering Algorithm} (\texttt{SR-FCA}), which removes such restrictive assumptions. \texttt{SR-FCA} treats each user as a singleton cluster as an initialization, and then successively refine the cluster estimation via exploiting similar users belonging to the same cluster. In any intermediate step, \texttt{SR-FCA} uses a robust federated learning algorithm within each cluster to exploit simultaneous training and to correct clustering errors. Furthermore, \texttt{SR-FCA} does not require any \emph{good} initialization (warm start), both in theory and practice. We show that with proper choice of learning rate, \texttt{SR-FCA} incurs arbitrarily small clustering error. Additionally, we validate the performance of our algorithm on standard FL datasets in non-convex problems like neural nets, and we show the benefits of \texttt{SR-FCA} over baselines.

The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.

Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.