Stacking regressions is an ensemble technique that forms linear combinations of different regression estimators to enhance predictive accuracy. The conventional approach uses cross-validation data to generate predictions from the constituent estimators, and least-squares with nonnegativity constraints to learn the combination weights. In this paper, we learn these weights analogously by minimizing an estimate of the population risk subject to a nonnegativity constraint. When the constituent estimators are linear least-squares projections onto nested subspaces separated by at least three dimensions, we show that thanks to a shrinkage effect, the resulting stacked estimator has strictly smaller population risk than best single estimator among them. Here ``best'' refers to a model that minimizes a selection criterion such as AIC or BIC. In other words, in this setting, the best single estimator is inadmissible. Because the optimization problem can be reformulated as isotonic regression, the stacked estimator requires the same order of computation as the best single estimator, making it an attractive alternative in terms of both performance and implementation.
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Kernel ridge regression, KRR, is a generalization of linear ridge regression that is non-linear in the data, but linear in the parameters. Here, we introduce an equivalent formulation of the objective function of KRR, opening up both for using penalties other than the ridge penalty and for studying kernel ridge regression from the perspective of gradient descent. Using a continuous-time perspective, we derive a closed-form solution for solving kernel regression with gradient descent, something we refer to as kernel gradient flow, KGF, and theoretically bound the differences between KRR and KGF, where, for the latter, regularization is obtained through early stopping. We also generalize KRR by replacing the ridge penalty with the $\ell_1$ and $\ell_\infty$ penalties, respectively, and use the fact that analogous to the similarities between KGF and KRR, $\ell_1$ regularization and forward stagewise regression (also known as coordinate descent), and $\ell_\infty$ regularization and sign gradient descent, follow similar solution paths. We can thus alleviate the need for computationally heavy algorithms based on proximal gradient descent. We show theoretically and empirically how the $\ell_1$ and $\ell_\infty$ penalties, and the corresponding gradient-based optimization algorithms, produce sparse and robust kernel regression solutions, respectively.
To enable closed form conditioning, a common assumption in Gaussian process (GP) regression is independent and identically distributed Gaussian observation noise. This strong and simplistic assumption is often violated in practice, which leads to unreliable inferences and uncertainty quantification. Unfortunately, existing methods for robustifying GPs break closed-form conditioning, which makes them less attractive to practitioners and significantly more computationally expensive. In this paper, we demonstrate how to perform provably robust and conjugate Gaussian process (RCGP) regression at virtually no additional cost using generalised Bayesian inference. RCGP is particularly versatile as it enables exact conjugate closed form updates in all settings where standard GPs admit them. To demonstrate its strong empirical performance, we deploy RCGP for problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to sparse variational Gaussian processes.
The ability to process idiomatic or literal multiword expressions is a crucial aspect of understanding and generating any language. The task of generating contextually relevant continuations for narratives containing idiomatic (or literal) expressions can allow us to test the ability of generative language models (LMs) in understanding nuanced language containing non-compositional figurative text. We conduct a series of experiments using datasets in two distinct languages (English and Portuguese) under three different training settings (zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuned). Our results suggest that the models are only slightly better at generating continuations for literal contexts than idiomatic contexts, with exceedingly small margins. Furthermore, the models studied in this work perform equally well across both languages, indicating the robustness of generative models in performing this task.
Advances in artificial intelligence are driven by technologies inspired by the brain, but these technologies are orders of magnitude less powerful and energy efficient than biological systems. Inspired by the nonlinear dynamics of neural networks, new unconventional computing hardware has emerged with the potential to exploit natural phenomena and gain efficiency, in a similar manner to biological systems. Physical reservoir computing demonstrates this with a variety of unconventional systems, from optical-based to memristive systems. Reservoir computers provide a nonlinear projection of the task input into a high-dimensional feature space by exploiting the system's internal dynamics. A trained readout layer then combines features to perform tasks, such as pattern recognition and time-series analysis. Despite progress, achieving state-of-the-art performance without external signal processing to the reservoir remains challenging. Here we perform an initial exploration of three magnetic materials in thin-film geometries via microscale simulation. Our results reveal that basic spin properties of magnetic films generate the required nonlinear dynamics and memory to solve machine learning tasks (although there would be practical challenges in exploiting these particular materials in physical implementations). The method of exploration can be applied to other materials, so this work opens up the possibility of testing different materials, from relatively simple (alloys) to significantly complex (antiferromagnetic reservoirs).
Finding topics to write about can be a mentally demanding process. However, topic hierarchies can help writers explore topics of varying levels of specificity. In this paper, we use large language models (LLMs) to help construct topic hierarchies. Although LLMs have access to such knowledge, it can be difficult to elicit due to issues of specificity, scope, and repetition. We designed and tested three different prompting techniques to find one that maximized accuracy. We found that prepending the general topic area to a prompt yielded the most accurate results with 85% accuracy. We discuss applications of this research including STEM writing, education, and content creation.
We provide practical, efficient, and nonparametric methods for auditing the fairness of deployed classification and regression models. Whereas previous work relies on a fixed-sample size, our methods are sequential and allow for the continuous monitoring of incoming data, making them highly amenable to tracking the fairness of real-world systems. We also allow the data to be collected by a probabilistic policy as opposed to sampled uniformly from the population. This enables auditing to be conducted on data gathered for another purpose. Moreover, this policy may change over time and different policies may be used on different subpopulations. Finally, our methods can handle distribution shift resulting from either changes to the model or changes in the underlying population. Our approach is based on recent progress in anytime-valid inference and game-theoretic statistics-the "testing by betting" framework in particular. These connections ensure that our methods are interpretable, fast, and easy to implement. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on three benchmark fairness datasets.
Principal component regression (PCR) is a popular technique for fixed-design error-in-variables regression, a generalization of the linear regression setting in which the observed covariates are corrupted with random noise. We provide the first time-uniform finite sample guarantees for online (regularized) PCR whenever data is collected adaptively. Since the proof techniques for analyzing PCR in the fixed design setting do not readily extend to the online setting, our results rely on adapting tools from modern martingale concentration to the error-in-variables setting. As an application of our bounds, we provide a framework for experiment design in panel data settings when interventions are assigned adaptively. Our framework may be thought of as a generalization of the synthetic control and synthetic interventions frameworks, where data is collected via an adaptive intervention assignment policy.
Known simulations of random access machines (RAMs) or parallel RAMs (PRAMs) by Boolean circuits incur significant polynomial blowup, due to the need to repeatedly simulate accesses to a large main memory. Consider a single modification to Boolean circuits that removes the restriction that circuit graphs are acyclic. We call this the cyclic circuit model. Note, cyclic circuits remain combinational, as they do not allow wire values to change over time. We simulate PRAM with a cyclic circuit, and the blowup from our simulation is only polylogarithmic. Consider a PRAM program $P$ that on a length-$n$ input uses an arbitrary number of processors to manipulate words of size $\Theta(\log n)$ bits and then halts within $W(n)$ work. We construct a size-$O(W(n)\cdot \log^4 n)$ cyclic circuit that simulates $P$. Suppose that on a particular input, $P$ halts in time $T$; our circuit computes the same output within $T \cdot O(\log^3 n)$ gate delay. This implies theoretical feasibility of powerful parallel machines. Cyclic circuits can be implemented in hardware, and our circuit achieves performance within polylog factors of PRAM. Our simulated PRAM synchronizes processors via logical dependencies between wires.
Triple extraction is an essential task in information extraction for natural language processing and knowledge graph construction. In this paper, we revisit the end-to-end triple extraction task for sequence generation. Since generative triple extraction may struggle to capture long-term dependencies and generate unfaithful triples, we introduce a novel model, contrastive triple extraction with a generative transformer. Specifically, we introduce a single shared transformer module for encoder-decoder-based generation. To generate faithful results, we propose a novel triplet contrastive training object. Moreover, we introduce two mechanisms to further improve model performance (i.e., batch-wise dynamic attention-masking and triple-wise calibration). Experimental results on three datasets (i.e., NYT, WebNLG, and MIE) show that our approach achieves better performance than that of baselines.
Benefit from the quick development of deep learning techniques, salient object detection has achieved remarkable progresses recently. However, there still exists following two major challenges that hinder its application in embedded devices, low resolution output and heavy model weight. To this end, this paper presents an accurate yet compact deep network for efficient salient object detection. More specifically, given a coarse saliency prediction in the deepest layer, we first employ residual learning to learn side-output residual features for saliency refinement, which can be achieved with very limited convolutional parameters while keep accuracy. Secondly, we further propose reverse attention to guide such side-output residual learning in a top-down manner. By erasing the current predicted salient regions from side-output features, the network can eventually explore the missing object parts and details which results in high resolution and accuracy. Experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach compares favorably against state-of-the-art methods, and with advantages in terms of simplicity, efficiency (45 FPS) and model size (81 MB).
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