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Spatial autocorrelation measures such as Moran's index can be expressed as a pair of equations based on a standardized size variable and a globally normalized weight matrix. One is based on inner product, and the other is based on outer product of the size variable. The inner product equation is actually a spatial autocorrelation model. However, the theoretical basis of the inner product equation for Moran's index is not clear. This paper is devoted to revealing the antecedents and consequences of the inner product equation of Moran's index. The method is mathematical derivation and empirical analysis. The main results are as follows. First, the inner product equation is derived from a simple spatial autoregressive model, and thus the relation between Moran's index and spatial autoregressive coefficient is clarified. Second, the least squares regression is proved to be one of effective approaches for estimating spatial autoregressive coefficient. Third, the value ranges of the spatial autoregressive coefficient can be identified from three angles of view. A conclusion can be drawn that a spatial autocorrelation model is actually an inverse spatial autoregressive model, and Moran's index and spatial autoregressive models can be integrated into the same framework through inner product and outer product equations. This work may be helpful for understanding the connections and differences between spatial autocorrelation measurements and spatial autoregressive modeling.

In data science, vector autoregression (VAR) models are popular in modeling multivariate time series in the environmental sciences and other applications. However, these models are computationally complex with the number of parameters scaling quadratically with the number of time series. In this work, we propose a so-called neighborhood vector autoregression (NVAR) model to efficiently analyze large-dimensional multivariate time series. We assume that the time series have underlying neighborhood relationships, e.g., spatial or network, among them based on the inherent setting of the problem. When this neighborhood information is available or can be summarized using a distance matrix, we demonstrate that our proposed NVAR method provides a computationally efficient and theoretically sound estimation of model parameters. The performance of the proposed method is compared with other existing approaches in both simulation studies and a real application of stream nitrogen study.

Two aspects of neural networks that have been extensively studied in the recent literature are their function approximation properties and their training by gradient descent methods. The approximation problem seeks accurate approximations with a minimal number of weights. In most of the current literature these weights are fully or partially hand-crafted, showing the capabilities of neural networks but not necessarily their practical performance. In contrast, optimization theory for neural networks heavily relies on an abundance of weights in over-parametrized regimes. This paper balances these two demands and provides an approximation result for shallow networks in $1d$ with non-convex weight optimization by gradient descent. We consider finite width networks and infinite sample limits, which is the typical setup in approximation theory. Technically, this problem is not over-parametrized, however, some form of redundancy reappears as a loss in approximation rate compared to best possible rates.

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long been hindered by its non-identifiability, computational intractability, and relative difficulty of interpretation. This paper introduces a novel infinite-order VAR model which, with only a little sacrifice of generality, inherits the essential temporal patterns of the VARMA model but avoids all of the above drawbacks. As another attractive feature, the temporal and cross-sectional dependence structures of this model can be interpreted separately, since they are characterized by different sets of parameters. For high-dimensional time series, this separation motivates us to impose sparsity on the parameters determining the cross-sectional dependence. As a result, greater statistical efficiency and interpretability can be achieved, while no loss of temporal information is incurred by the imposed sparsity. We introduce an $\ell_1$-regularized estimator for the proposed model and derive the corresponding nonasymptotic error bounds. An efficient block coordinate descent algorithm and a consistent model order selection method are developed. The merit of the proposed approach is supported by simulation studies and a real-world macroeconomic data analysis.

Bayesian variable selection methods are powerful techniques for fitting and inferring on sparse high-dimensional linear regression models. However, many are computationally intensive or require restrictive prior distributions on model parameters. Likelihood based penalization methods are more computationally friendly, but resource intensive refitting techniques are needed for inference. In this paper, we proposed an efficient and powerful Bayesian approach for sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Minimal prior assumptions on the parameters are required through the use of plug-in empirical Bayes estimates of hyperparameters. Efficient maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation is completed through the use of a partitioned and extended expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. The result is a PaRtitiOned empirical Bayes Ecm (PROBE) algorithm applied to sparse high-dimensional linear regression. We propose methods to estimate credible and prediction intervals for predictions of future values. We compare the empirical properties of predictions and our predictive inference to comparable approaches with numerous simulation studies and an analysis of cancer cell lines drug response study. The proposed approach is implemented in the R package probe.

This work considers Gaussian process interpolation with a periodized version of the Mat{\'e}rn covariance function (Stein, 1999, Section 6.7) with Fourier coefficients $\phi$($\alpha$^2 + j^2)^(--$\nu$--1/2). Convergence rates are studied for the joint maximum likelihood estimation of $\nu$ and $\phi$ when the data is sampled according to the model. The mean integrated squared error is also analyzed with fixed and estimated parameters, showing that maximum likelihood estimation yields asymptotically the same error as if the ground truth was known. Finally, the case where the observed function is a ''deterministic'' element of a continuous Sobolev space is also considered, suggesting that bounding assumptions on some parameters can lead to different estimates.

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur over a broad time interval. We formulate the effects of potentially time-dependent covariates on multi-state processes through semiparametric proportional intensity models with random effects. We adopt nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE) under general interval censoring and develop a stable expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We show that the resulting parameter estimators are consistent and that the finite-dimensional components are asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound and can be consistently estimated through profile likelihood. In addition, we demonstrate through extensive simulation studies that the proposed numerical and inferential procedures perform well in realistic settings. Finally, we provide an application to a major epidemiologic cohort study.

Diffusion models are a new class of generative models that mark a milestone in high-quality image generation while relying on solid probabilistic principles. This makes them promising candidate models for neural image compression. This paper outlines an end-to-end optimized framework based on a conditional diffusion model for image compression. Besides latent variables inherent to the diffusion process, the model introduces an additional per-instance "content" latent variable to condition the denoising process. Upon decoding, the diffusion process conditionally generates/reconstructs an image using ancestral sampling. Our experiments show that this approach outperforms one of the best-performing conventional image codecs (BPG) and one neural codec on two compression benchmarks, where we focus on rate-perception tradeoffs. Qualitatively, our approach shows fewer decompression artifacts than the classical approach.

Latent class models are powerful statistical modeling tools widely used in psychological, behavioral, and social sciences. In the modern era of data science, researchers often have access to response data collected from large-scale surveys or assessments, featuring many items (large J) and many subjects (large N). This is in contrary to the traditional regime with fixed J and large N. To analyze such large-scale data, it is important to develop methods that are both computationally efficient and theoretically valid. In terms of computation, the conventional EM algorithm for latent class models tends to have a slow algorithmic convergence rate for large-scale data and may converge to some local optima instead of the maximum likelihood estimator(MLE). Motivated by this, we introduce the tensor decomposition perspective into latent class analysis with binary responses. Methodologically, we propose to use a moment-based tensor power method in the first step, and then use the obtained estimates as initialization for the EM algorithm in the second step. Theoretically, we establish the clustering consistency of the MLE in assigning subjects into latent classes when N and J both go to infinity. Simulation studies suggest that the proposed tensor-EM pipeline enjoys both good accuracy and computational efficiency for large-scale data with binary responses. We also apply the proposed method to an educational assessment dataset as an illustration.