Drought is a complex environmental phenomenon that affects millions of people and communities all over the globe and is too elusive to be accurately predicted. This is mostly due to the scalability and variability of the web of environmental parameters that directly/indirectly causes the onset of different categories of drought. Since the dawn of man, efforts have been made to uniquely understand the natural indicators that provide signs of likely environmental events. These indicators/signs in the form of indigenous knowledge system have been used for generations. The intricate complexity of drought has, however, always been a major stumbling block for accurate drought prediction and forecasting systems. Recently, scientists in the field of agriculture and environmental monitoring have been discussing the integration of indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge for a more accurate environmental forecasting system in order to incorporate diverse environmental information for a reliable drought forecast. Hence, in this research, the core objective is the development of a semantics-based data integration middleware that encompasses and integrates heterogeneous data models of local indigenous knowledge and sensor data towards an accurate drought forecasting system for the study areas. The local indigenous knowledge on drought gathered from the domain experts is transformed into rules to be used for performing deductive inference in conjunction with sensors data for determining the onset of drought through an automated inference generation module of the middleware. The semantic middleware incorporates, inter alia, a distributed architecture that consists of a streaming data processing engine based on Apache Kafka for real-time stream processing; a rule-based reasoning module; an ontology module for semantic representation of the knowledge bases.
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Evaluation of multilingual Large Language Models (LLMs) is challenging due to a variety of factors -- the lack of benchmarks with sufficient linguistic diversity, contamination of popular benchmarks into LLM pre-training data and the lack of local, cultural nuances in translated benchmarks. In this work, we study human and LLM-based evaluation in a multilingual, multi-cultural setting. We evaluate 30 models across 10 Indic languages by conducting 90K human evaluations and 30K LLM-based evaluations and find that models such as GPT-4o and Llama-3 70B consistently perform best for most Indic languages. We build leaderboards for two evaluation settings - pairwise comparison and direct assessment and analyse the agreement between humans and LLMs. We find that humans and LLMs agree fairly well in the pairwise setting but the agreement drops for direct assessment evaluation especially for languages such as Bengali and Odia. We also check for various biases in human and LLM-based evaluation and find evidence of self-bias in the GPT-based evaluator. Our work presents a significant step towards scaling up multilingual evaluation of LLMs.
With the rapidly increasing number of bandwidth-intensive terminals capable of intelligent computing and communication, such as smart devices equipped with shallow neural network models, the complexity of multiple access for these intelligent terminals is increasing due to the dynamic network environment and ubiquitous connectivity in 6G systems. Traditional multiple access (MA) design and optimization methods are gradually losing ground to artificial intelligence (AI) techniques that have proven their superiority in handling complexity. AI-empowered MA and its optimization strategies aimed at achieving high Quality-of-Service (QoS) are attracting more attention, especially in the area of latency-sensitive applications in 6G systems. In this work, we aim to: 1) present the development and comparative evaluation of AI-enabled MA; 2) provide a timely survey focusing on spectrum sensing, protocol design, and optimization for AI-empowered MA; and 3) explore the potential use cases of AI-empowered MA in the typical application scenarios within 6G systems. Specifically, we first present a unified framework of AI-empowered MA for 6G systems by incorporating various promising machine learning techniques in spectrum sensing, resource allocation, MA protocol design, and optimization. We then introduce AI-empowered MA spectrum sensing related to spectrum sharing and spectrum interference management. Next, we discuss the AI-empowered MA protocol designs and implementation methods by reviewing and comparing the state-of-the-art, and we further explore the optimization algorithms related to dynamic resource management, parameter adjustment, and access scheme switching. Finally, we discuss the current challenges, point out open issues, and outline potential future research directions in this field.
We introduce a simulation environment to facilitate research into emergent collective behaviour, with a focus on replicating the dynamics of ant colonies. By leveraging real-world data, the environment simulates a target ant trail that a controllable agent must learn to replicate, using sensory data observed by the target ant. This work aims to contribute to the neuroevolution of models for collective behaviour, focusing on evolving neural architectures that encode domain-specific behaviours in the network topology. By evolving models that can be modified and studied in a controlled environment, we can uncover the necessary conditions required for collective behaviours to emerge. We hope this environment will be useful to those studying the role of interactions in emergent behaviour within collective systems.
The problem of pure exploration in Markov decision processes has been cast as maximizing the entropy over the state distribution induced by the agent's policy, an objective that has been extensively studied. However, little attention has been dedicated to state entropy maximization under partial observability, despite the latter being ubiquitous in applications, e.g., finance and robotics, in which the agent only receives noisy observations of the true state governing the system's dynamics. How can we address state entropy maximization in those domains? In this paper, we study the simple approach of maximizing the entropy over observations in place of true latent states. First, we provide lower and upper bounds to the approximation of the true state entropy that only depends on some properties of the observation function. Then, we show how knowledge of the latter can be exploited to compute a principled regularization of the observation entropy to improve performance. With this work, we provide both a flexible approach to bring advances in state entropy maximization to the POMDP setting and a theoretical characterization of its intrinsic limits.
The property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry faces challenges in developing claim predictive models due to the highly right-skewed distribution of positive claims with excess zeros. To address this, actuarial science researchers have employed "zero-inflated" models that combine a traditional count model and a binary model. This paper investigates the use of boosting algorithms to process insurance claim data, including zero-inflated telematics data, to construct claim frequency models. Three popular gradient boosting libraries - XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost - are evaluated and compared to determine the most suitable library for training insurance claim data and fitting actuarial frequency models. Through a comprehensive analysis of two distinct datasets, it is determined that CatBoost is the best for developing auto claim frequency models based on predictive performance. Furthermore, we propose a new zero-inflated Poisson boosted tree model, with variation in the assumption about the relationship between inflation probability $p$ and distribution mean $\mu$, and find that it outperforms others depending on data characteristics. This model enables us to take advantage of particular CatBoost tools, which makes it easier and more convenient to investigate the effects and interactions of various risk features on the frequency model when using telematics data.
Generative AI has demonstrated unprecedented creativity in the field of computer vision, yet such phenomena have not been observed in natural language processing. In particular, large language models (LLMs) can hardly produce written works at the level of human experts due to the extremely high complexity of literature writing. In this paper, we present HoLLMwood, an automated framework for unleashing the creativity of LLMs and exploring their potential in screenwriting, which is a highly demanding task. Mimicking the human creative process, we assign LLMs to different roles involved in the real-world scenario. In addition to the common practice of treating LLMs as ${Writer}$, we also apply LLMs as ${Editor}$, who is responsible for providing feedback and revision advice to ${Writer}$. Besides, to enrich the characters and deepen the plots, we introduce a role-playing mechanism and adopt LLMs as ${Actors}$ that can communicate and interact with each other. Evaluations on automatically generated screenplays show that HoLLMwood substantially outperforms strong baselines in terms of coherence, relevance, interestingness and overall quality.
Segmentation models for brain lesions in MRI are commonly developed for a specific disease and trained on data with a predefined set of MRI modalities. Each such model cannot segment the disease using data with a different set of MRI modalities, nor can it segment any other type of disease. Moreover, this training paradigm does not allow a model to benefit from learning from heterogeneous databases that may contain scans and segmentation labels for different types of brain pathologies and diverse sets of MRI modalities. Is it feasible to use Federated Learning (FL) for training a single model on client databases that contain scans and labels of different brain pathologies and diverse sets of MRI modalities? We demonstrate promising results by combining appropriate, simple, and practical modifications to the model and training strategy: Designing a model with input channels that cover the whole set of modalities available across clients, training with random modality drop, and exploring the effects of feature normalization methods. Evaluation on 7 brain MRI databases with 5 different diseases shows that such FL framework can train a single model that is shown to be very promising in segmenting all disease types seen during training. Importantly, it is able to segment these diseases in new databases that contain sets of modalities different from those in training clients. These results demonstrate, for the first time, feasibility and effectiveness of using FL to train a single segmentation model on decentralised data with diverse brain diseases and MRI modalities, a necessary step towards leveraging heterogeneous real-world databases. Code will be made available at: //github.com/FelixWag/FL-MultiDisease-MRI
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been studied from the lens of expressive power and generalization. However, their optimization properties are less well understood. We take the first step towards analyzing GNN training by studying the gradient dynamics of GNNs. First, we analyze linearized GNNs and prove that despite the non-convexity of training, convergence to a global minimum at a linear rate is guaranteed under mild assumptions that we validate on real-world graphs. Second, we study what may affect the GNNs' training speed. Our results show that the training of GNNs is implicitly accelerated by skip connections, more depth, and/or a good label distribution. Empirical results confirm that our theoretical results for linearized GNNs align with the training behavior of nonlinear GNNs. Our results provide the first theoretical support for the success of GNNs with skip connections in terms of optimization, and suggest that deep GNNs with skip connections would be promising in practice.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are successful in many computer vision tasks. However, the most accurate DNNs require millions of parameters and operations, making them energy, computation and memory intensive. This impedes the deployment of large DNNs in low-power devices with limited compute resources. Recent research improves DNN models by reducing the memory requirement, energy consumption, and number of operations without significantly decreasing the accuracy. This paper surveys the progress of low-power deep learning and computer vision, specifically in regards to inference, and discusses the methods for compacting and accelerating DNN models. The techniques can be divided into four major categories: (1) parameter quantization and pruning, (2) compressed convolutional filters and matrix factorization, (3) network architecture search, and (4) knowledge distillation. We analyze the accuracy, advantages, disadvantages, and potential solutions to the problems with the techniques in each category. We also discuss new evaluation metrics as a guideline for future research.
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