We assume that we observe $N$ independent copies of a diffusion process on a time-interval $[0,2T]$. For a given time $t$, we estimate the transition density $p_t(x,y)$, namely the conditional density of $X_{t + s}$ given $X_s = x$, under conditions on the diffusion coefficients ensuring that this quantity exists. We use a least squares projection method on a product of finite dimensional spaces, prove risk bounds for the estimator and propose an anisotropic model selection method, relying on several reference norms. A simulation study illustrates the theoretical part for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck or square-root (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross) processes.
相關內容
Panel data consists of a collection of $N$ units that are observed over $T$ units of time. A policy or treatment is subject to staggered adoption if different units take on treatment at different times and remains treated (or never at all). Assessing the effectiveness of such a policy requires estimating the treatment effect, corresponding to the difference between outcomes for treated versus untreated units. We develop inference procedures that build upon a computationally efficient matrix estimator for treatment effects in panel data. Our routines return confidence intervals (CIs) both for individual treatment effects, as well as for more general bilinear functionals of treatment effects, with prescribed coverage guarantees. We apply these inferential methods to analyze the effectiveness of Medicaid expansion portion of the Affordable Care Act. Based on our analysis, Medicaid expansion has led to substantial reductions in uninsurance rates, has reduced infant mortality rates, and has had no significant effects on healthcare expenditures.
We consider temporal numeric planning problems $\Pi$ expressed in PDDL2.1 level 3, and show how to produce SMT formulas $(i)$ whose models correspond to valid plans of $\Pi$, and $(ii)$ that extend the recently proposed planning with patterns approach from the numeric to the temporal case. We prove the correctness and completeness of the approach and show that it performs very well on 10 domains with required concurrency.
We study a fundamental problem in the evaluation of large language models that we call training on the test task. Unlike wrongful practices like training on the test data, leakage, or data contamination, training on the test task is not a malpractice. Rather, the term describes a growing set of practices that utilize knowledge about evaluation tasks at training time. We demonstrate that training on the test task confounds both relative model evaluations and claims about emergent capabilities. We argue that the seeming superiority of one model family over another may be explained by a different degree of training on the test task. To this end, we propose an effective method to adjust for the effect of training on the test task on benchmark evaluations. Put simply, to fine-tune each model under comparison on the same task-relevant data before evaluation. We then show that instances of emergent behavior disappear gradually as models train on the test task. Our work promotes a new perspective on the evaluation of large language models with broad implications for benchmarking and the study of emergent capabilities
We introduce a new erasure decoder that applies to arbitrary quantum LDPC codes. Dubbed the cluster decoder, it generalizes the decomposition idea of Vertical-Horizontal (VH) decoding introduced by Connelly et al. in 2022. Like the VH decoder, the idea is to first run the peeling decoder and then post-process the resulting stopping set. The cluster decoder breaks the stopping set into a tree of clusters which can be solved sequentially via Gaussian Elimination (GE). By allowing clusters of unconstrained size, this decoder achieves maximum-likelihood (ML) performance with reduced complexity compared with full GE. When GE is applied only to clusters whose sizes are less than a constant, the performance is degraded but the complexity becomes linear in the block length. Our simulation results show that, for hypergraph product codes, the cluster decoder with constant cluster size achieves near-ML performance similar to VH decoding in the low-erasure-rate regime. For the general quantum LDPC codes we studied, the cluster decoder can be used to estimate the ML performance curve with reduced complexity over a wide range of erasure rates.
Functional linear regression is one of the fundamental and well-studied methods in functional data analysis. In this work, we investigate the functional linear regression model within the context of reproducing kernel Hilbert space by employing general spectral regularization to approximate the slope function with certain smoothness assumptions. We establish optimal convergence rates for estimation and prediction errors associated with the proposed method under a H\"{o}lder type source condition, which generalizes and sharpens all the known results in the literature.
Not many tests exist for testing the equality for two or more multivariate distributions with compositional data, perhaps due to their constrained sample space. At the moment, there is only one test suggested that relies upon random projections. We propose a novel test termed {\alpha}-Energy Based Test ({\alpha}-EBT) to compare the multivariate distributions of two (or more) compositional data sets. Similar to the aforementioned test, the new test makes no parametric assumptions about the data and, based on simulation studies it exhibits higher power levels.
The ideal estimand for comparing a new treatment $Rx$ with a control $C$ is the $\textit{counterfactual}$ efficacy $Rx:C$, the expected differential outcome between $Rx$ and $C$ if each patient were given $\textit{both}$. While counterfactual $\textit{point estimation}$ from $\textit{factual}$ Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) has been available, this article shows $\textit{counterfactual}$ uncertainty quantification (CUQ), quantifying uncertainty for factual point estimates but in a counterfactual setting, is surprisingly achievable. We achieve CUQ whose variability is typically smaller than factual UQ, by creating a new statistical modeling principle called ETZ which is applicable to RCTs with $\textit{Before-and-After}$ treatment Repeated Measures, common in many therapeutic areas. We urge caution when estimate of the unobservable true condition of a patient before treatment has measurement error, because that violation of standard regression assumption can cause attenuation in estimating treatment effects. Fortunately, we prove that, for traditional medicine in general, and for targeted therapy with efficacy defined as averaged over the population, counterfactual point estimation is unbiased. However, for targeted therapy, both Real Human and Digital Twins approaches should respect this limitation, lest predicted treatment effect in $\textit{subgroups}$ will have bias.
As artificial intelligence (AI) models continue to scale up, they are becoming more capable and integrated into various forms of decision-making systems. For models involved in moral decision-making, also known as artificial moral agents (AMA), interpretability provides a way to trust and understand the agent's internal reasoning mechanisms for effective use and error correction. In this paper, we provide an overview of this rapidly-evolving sub-field of AI interpretability, introduce the concept of the Minimum Level of Interpretability (MLI) and recommend an MLI for various types of agents, to aid their safe deployment in real-world settings.
In contrast to batch learning where all training data is available at once, continual learning represents a family of methods that accumulate knowledge and learn continuously with data available in sequential order. Similar to the human learning process with the ability of learning, fusing, and accumulating new knowledge coming at different time steps, continual learning is considered to have high practical significance. Hence, continual learning has been studied in various artificial intelligence tasks. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the recent progress of continual learning in computer vision. In particular, the works are grouped by their representative techniques, including regularization, knowledge distillation, memory, generative replay, parameter isolation, and a combination of the above techniques. For each category of these techniques, both its characteristics and applications in computer vision are presented. At the end of this overview, several subareas, where continuous knowledge accumulation is potentially helpful while continual learning has not been well studied, are discussed.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191