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In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the autocovariance sequence resulting from a reversible Markov chain. A motivating application for studying this problem is the estimation of the asymptotic variance in central limit theorems for Markov chains. We propose a novel shape-constrained estimator of the autocovariance sequence, which is based on the key observation that the representability of the autocovariance sequence as a moment sequence imposes certain shape constraints. We examine the theoretical properties of the proposed estimator and provide strong consistency guarantees for our estimator. In particular, for geometrically ergodic reversible Markov chains, we show that our estimator is strongly consistent for the true autocovariance sequence with respect to an $\ell_2$ distance, and that our estimator leads to strongly consistent estimates of the asymptotic variance. Finally, we perform empirical studies to illustrate the theoretical properties of the proposed estimator as well as to demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator in comparison with other current state-of-the-art methods for Markov chain Monte Carlo variance estimation, including batch means, spectral variance estimators, and the initial convex sequence estimator.

Many models of learning in teams assume that team members can share solutions or learn concurrently. However, these assumptions break down in multidisciplinary teams where team members often complete distinct, interrelated pieces of larger tasks. Such contexts make it difficult for individuals to separate the performance effects of their own actions from the actions of interacting neighbors. In this work, we show that individuals can overcome this challenge by learning from network neighbors through mediating artifacts (like collective performance assessments). When neighbors' actions influence collective outcomes, teams with different networks perform relatively similarly to one another. However, varying a team's network can affect performance on tasks that weight individuals' contributions by network properties. Consequently, when individuals innovate (through ``exploring'' searches), dense networks hurt performance slightly by increasing uncertainty. In contrast, dense networks moderately help performance when individuals refine their work (through ``exploiting'' searches) by efficiently finding local optima. We also find that decentralization improves team performance across a battery of 34 tasks. Our results offer design principles for multidisciplinary teams within which other forms of learning prove more difficult.

The work of Kalman and Bucy has established a duality between filtering and optimal estimation in the context of time-continuous linear systems. This duality has recently been extended to time-continuous nonlinear systems in terms of an optimization problem constrained by a backward stochastic partial differential equation. Here we revisit this problem from the perspective of appropriate forward-backward stochastic differential equations. This approach sheds new light on the estimation problem and provides a unifying perspective. It is also demonstrated that certain formulations of the estimation problem lead to deterministic formulations similar to the linear Gaussian case as originally investigated by Kalman and Bucy. Finally, optimal control of partially observed diffusion processes is discussed as an application of the proposed estimators.

Predictive maintenance plays a critical role in ensuring the uninterrupted operation of industrial systems and mitigating the potential risks associated with system failures. This study focuses on sensor-based condition monitoring and explores the application of deep learning techniques using a hydraulic system testbed dataset. Our investigation involves comparing the performance of three models: a baseline model employing conventional methods, a single CNN model with early sensor fusion, and a two-lane CNN model (2L-CNN) with late sensor fusion. The baseline model achieves an impressive test error rate of 1% by employing late sensor fusion, where feature extraction is performed individually for each sensor. However, the CNN model encounters challenges due to the diverse sensor characteristics, resulting in an error rate of 20.5%. To further investigate this issue, we conduct separate training for each sensor and observe variations in accuracy. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of the 2L-CNN model, which demonstrates significant improvement by reducing the error rate by 33% when considering the combination of the least and most optimal sensors. This study underscores the importance of effectively addressing the complexities posed by multi-sensor systems in sensor-based condition monitoring.

In this work, we present a novel method for hierarchically variable clustering using singular value decomposition. Our proposed approach provides a non-parametric solution to identify block diagonal patterns in covariance (correlation) matrices, thereby grouping variables according to their dissimilarity. We explain the methodology and outline the incorporation of linkage functions to assess dissimilarities between clusters. To validate the efficiency of our method, we perform both a simulation study and an analysis of real-world data. Our findings show the approach's robustness. We conclude by discussing potential extensions and future directions for research in this field. Supplementary materials for this article can be accessed online.

Venkatachala on the one hand, and Avdispahi\'c & Zejnulahi on the other, both studiied integer sequences with an unusual sum property defined in a greedy way, and proved many results about them. However, their proofs were rather lengthy and required numerous cases. In this paper, I provide a different approach, via finite automata, that can prove the same results (and more) in a simple, unified way. Instead of case analysis, we use a decision procedure implemented in the free software Walnut. Using these ideas, we can prove a conjecture of Quet and find connections between Quet's sequence and the "married" functions of Hofstadter.

In this paper, we develop an efficient spectral-Galerkin-type search extension method (SGSEM) for finding multiple solutions to semilinear elliptic boundary value problems. This method constructs effective initial data for multiple solutions based on the linear combinations of some eigenfunctions of the corresponding linear eigenvalue problem, and thus takes full advantage of the traditional search extension method in constructing initials for multiple solutions. Meanwhile, it possesses a low computational cost and high accuracy due to the employment of an interpolated coefficient Legendre-Galerkin spectral discretization. By applying the Schauder's fixed point theorem and other technical strategies, the existence and spectral convergence of the numerical solution corresponding to a specified true solution are rigorously proved. In addition, the uniqueness of the numerical solution in a sufficiently small neighborhood of each specified true solution is strictly verified. Numerical results demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of our algorithm and present different types of multiple solutions.

Robustness to adversarial attacks is typically evaluated with adversarial accuracy. While essential, this metric does not capture all aspects of robustness and in particular leaves out the question of how many perturbations can be found for each point. In this work, we introduce an alternative approach, adversarial sparsity, which quantifies how difficult it is to find a successful perturbation given both an input point and a constraint on the direction of the perturbation. We show that sparsity provides valuable insight into neural networks in multiple ways: for instance, it illustrates important differences between current state-of-the-art robust models them that accuracy analysis does not, and suggests approaches for improving their robustness. When applying broken defenses effective against weak attacks but not strong ones, sparsity can discriminate between the totally ineffective and the partially effective defenses. Finally, with sparsity we can measure increases in robustness that do not affect accuracy: we show for example that data augmentation can by itself increase adversarial robustness, without using adversarial training.

This paper does not describe a working system. Instead, it presents a single idea about representation which allows advances made by several different groups to be combined into an imaginary system called GLOM. The advances include transformers, neural fields, contrastive representation learning, distillation and capsules. GLOM answers the question: How can a neural network with a fixed architecture parse an image into a part-whole hierarchy which has a different structure for each image? The idea is simply to use islands of identical vectors to represent the nodes in the parse tree. If GLOM can be made to work, it should significantly improve the interpretability of the representations produced by transformer-like systems when applied to vision or language