Emerging connected vehicle (CV) data sets have recently become commercially available that enable analysts to develop a variety of powerful performance measures without a need to deploy field infrastructure. This paper presents a several tools using CV data to evaluate the quality of signal progression. These include both performance measures for high-level analysis as well as visualizations to examine details of coordinated operation. With the use of CV data, it is possible to assess not only the movement of traffic on the corridor but also to consider its origin-destination (O-D) path through the corridor, and the tools can be applied to select O-D paths or to all O-D paths in the corridor. Results for real-world operation of an eight-intersection signalized arterial are presented. A series of high-level performance measures are used to evaluate overall performance by time of day and direction, with differing results by metric. Next, the details of the operation are examined with the use of two visualization tools: a cyclic time space diagram, and an empirical platoon progression diagram. Comparing visualizations of only end-to-end journeys on the corridor with all journeys on the corridor reveals several features that are only visible with the latter. The study demonstrates the utility of CV trajectory data for obtaining high-level details as well as drilling down into the details.
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We present an efficient quantum algorithm to simulate nonlinear differential equations with polynomial vector fields of arbitrary degree on quantum platforms. Models of physical systems that are governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) or partial differential equation (PDEs) can be challenging to solve on classical computers due to high dimensionality, stiffness, nonlinearities, and sensitive dependence to initial conditions. For sparse $n$-dimensional linear ODEs, quantum algorithms have been developed which can produce a quantum state proportional to the solution in poly(log(nx)) time using the quantum linear systems algorithm (QLSA). Recently, this framework was extended to systems of nonlinear ODEs with quadratic polynomial vector fields by applying Carleman linearization that enables the embedding of the quadratic system into an approximate linear form. A detailed complexity analysis was conducted which showed significant computational advantage under certain conditions. We present an extension of this algorithm to deal with systems of nonlinear ODEs with $k$-th degree polynomial vector fields for arbitrary (finite) values of $k$. The steps involve: 1) mapping the $k$-th degree polynomial ODE to a higher dimensional quadratic polynomial ODE; 2) applying Carleman linearization to transform the quadratic ODE to an infinite-dimensional system of linear ODEs; 3) truncating and discretizing the linear ODE and solving using the forward Euler method and QLSA. Alternatively, one could apply Carleman linearization directly to the $k$-th degree polynomial ODE, resulting in a system of infinite-dimensional linear ODEs, and then apply step 3. This solution route can be computationally more efficient. We present detailed complexity analysis of the proposed algorithms, prove polynomial scaling of runtime on $k$ and demonstrate the framework on an example.
Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Posterior inference with generative models is an alternative to methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo, both for likelihood-based and simulation-based inference. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `distance to random point' (DRP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is optimal. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that DRP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect non-optimal inferences in cases where existing methods fail.
We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.
Autonomous operation of UAVs in a closed environment requires precise and reliable pose estimate that can stabilize the UAV without using external localization systems such as GNSS. In this work, we are concerned with estimating the pose from laser scans generated by an inexpensive and lightweight LIDAR. We propose a localization system for lightweight (under 200g) LIDAR sensors with high reliability in arbitrary environments, where other methods fail. The general nature of the proposed method allows deployment in wide array of applications. Moreover, seamless transitioning between different kinds of environments is possible. The advantage of LIDAR localization is that it is robust to poor illumination, which is often challenging for camera-based solutions in dark indoor environments and in the case of the transition between indoor and outdoor environment. Our approach allows executing tasks in poorly-illuminated indoor locations such as historic buildings and warehouses, as well as in the tight outdoor environment, such as forest, where vision-based approaches fail due to large contrast of the scene, and where large well-equipped UAVs cannot be deployed due to the constrained space.
Industrial process tomography (IPT) is a specialized imaging technique widely used in industrial scenarios for process supervision and control. Today, augmented/mixed reality (AR/MR) is increasingly being adopted in many industrial occasions, even though there is still an obvious gap when it comes to IPT. To bridge this gap, we propose the first systematic AR approach using optical see-through (OST) head mounted displays (HMDs) with comparative evaluation for domain users towards IPT visualization analysis. The proof-of-concept was demonstrated by a within-subject user study (n=20) with counterbalancing design. Both qualitative and quantitative measurements were investigated. The results showed that our AR approach outperformed conventional settings for IPT data visualization analysis in bringing higher understandability, reduced task completion time, lower error rates for domain tasks, increased usability with enhanced user experience, and a better recommendation level. We summarize the findings and suggest future research directions for benefiting IPT users with AR/MR.
With continuous outcomes, the average causal effect is typically defined using a contrast of expected potential outcomes. However, in the presence of skewed outcome data, the expectation may no longer be meaningful. In practice the typical approach is to either "ignore or transform" - ignore the skewness altogether or transform the outcome to obtain a more symmetric distribution, although neither approach is entirely satisfactory. Alternatively the causal effect can be redefined as a contrast of median potential outcomes, yet discussion of confounding-adjustment methods to estimate this parameter is limited. In this study we described and compared confounding-adjustment methods to address this gap. The methods considered were multivariable quantile regression, an inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator, weighted quantile regression and two little-known implementations of g-computation for this problem. Motivated by a cohort investigation in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, we conducted a simulation study that found the IPW estimator, weighted quantile regression and g-computation implementations minimised bias when the relevant models were correctly specified, with g-computation additionally minimising the variance. These methods provide appealing alternatives to the common "ignore or transform" approach and multivariable quantile regression, enhancing our capability to obtain meaningful causal effect estimates with skewed outcome data.
This study explores the problem of Multi-Agent Path Finding with continuous and stochastic travel times whose probability distribution is unknown. Our purpose is to manage a group of automated robots that provide package delivery services in a building where pedestrians and a wide variety of robots coexist, such as delivery services in office buildings, hospitals, and apartments. It is often the case with these real-world applications that the time required for the robots to traverse a corridor takes a continuous value and is randomly distributed, and the prior knowledge of the probability distribution of the travel time is limited. Multi-Agent Path Finding has been widely studied and applied to robot management systems; however, automating the robot operation in such environments remains difficult. We propose 1) online re-planning to update the action plan of robots while it is executed, and 2) parameter update to estimate the probability distribution of travel time using Bayesian inference as the delay is observed. We use a greedy heuristic to obtain solutions in a limited computation time. Through simulations, we empirically compare the performance of our method to those of existing methods in terms of the conflict probability and the actual travel time of robots. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can find travel paths with at least 50% fewer conflicts and a shorter actual total travel time than existing methods. The proposed method requires a small number of trials to achieve the performance because the parameter update is prioritized on the important edges for path planning, thereby satisfying the requirements of quick implementation of robust planning of automated delivery services.
Traffic systems are multi-agent cyber-physical systems whose performance is closely related to human welfare. They work in open environments and are subject to uncertainties from various sources, making their performance hard to verify by traditional model-based approaches. Alternatively, statistical model checking (SMC) can verify their performance by sequentially drawing sample data until the correctness of a performance specification can be inferred with desired statistical accuracy. This work aims to verify traffic systems with privacy, motivated by the fact that the data used may include personal information (e.g., daily itinerary) and get leaked unintendedly by observing the execution of the SMC algorithm. To formally capture data privacy in SMC, we introduce the concept of expected differential privacy (EDP), which constrains how much the algorithm execution can change in the expectation sense when data change. Accordingly, we introduce an exponential randomization mechanism for the SMC algorithm to achieve the EDP. Our case study on traffic intersections by Vissim simulation shows the high accuracy of SMC in traffic model verification without significantly sacrificing computing efficiency. The case study also shows EDP successfully bounding the algorithm outputs to guarantee privacy.
The time and effort involved in hand-designing deep neural networks is immense. This has prompted the development of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) techniques to automate this design. However, NAS algorithms tend to be slow and expensive; they need to train vast numbers of candidate networks to inform the search process. This could be alleviated if we could partially predict a network's trained accuracy from its initial state. In this work, we examine the overlap of activations between datapoints in untrained networks and motivate how this can give a measure which is usefully indicative of a network's trained performance. We incorporate this measure into a simple algorithm that allows us to search for powerful networks without any training in a matter of seconds on a single GPU, and verify its effectiveness on NAS-Bench-101, NAS-Bench-201, NATS-Bench, and Network Design Spaces. Our approach can be readily combined with more expensive search methods; we examine a simple adaptation of regularised evolutionary search. Code for reproducing our experiments is available at //github.com/BayesWatch/nas-without-training.
ASR (automatic speech recognition) systems like Siri, Alexa, Google Voice or Cortana has become quite popular recently. One of the key techniques enabling the practical use of such systems in people's daily life is deep learning. Though deep learning in computer vision is known to be vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, little is known whether such perturbations are still valid on the practical speech recognition. In this paper, we not only demonstrate such attacks can happen in reality, but also show that the attacks can be systematically conducted. To minimize users' attention, we choose to embed the voice commands into a song, called CommandSong. In this way, the song carrying the command can spread through radio, TV or even any media player installed in the portable devices like smartphones, potentially impacting millions of users in long distance. In particular, we overcome two major challenges: minimizing the revision of a song in the process of embedding commands, and letting the CommandSong spread through the air without losing the voice "command". Our evaluation demonstrates that we can craft random songs to "carry" any commands and the modify is extremely difficult to be noticed. Specially, the physical attack that we play the CommandSongs over the air and record them can success with 94 percentage.
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