Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.
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This work proposes a new framework of model reduction for parametric complex systems. The framework employs a popular model reduction technique dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), which is capable of combining data-driven learning and physics ingredients based on the Koopman operator theory. In the offline step of the proposed framework, DMD constructs a low-rank linear surrogate model for the high dimensional quantities of interest (QoIs) derived from the (nonlinear) complex high fidelity models (HFMs) of unknown forms. Then in the online step, the resulting local reduced order bases (ROBs) and parametric reduced order models (PROMs) at the training parameter sample points are interpolated to construct a new PROM with the corresponding ROB for a new set of target/test parameter values. The interpolations need to be done on the appropriate manifolds within consistent sets of generalized coordinates. The proposed framework is illustrated by numerical examples for both linear and nonlinear problems. In particular, its advantages in computational costs and accuracy are demonstrated by the comparisons with projection-based proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-PROM and Kriging.
Federated learning (FL) aims to minimize the communication complexity of training a model over heterogeneous data distributed across many clients. A common approach is local methods, where clients take multiple optimization steps over local data before communicating with the server (e.g., FedAvg). Local methods can exploit similarity between clients' data. However, in existing analyses, this comes at the cost of slow convergence in terms of the dependence on the number of communication rounds R. On the other hand, global methods, where clients simply return a gradient vector in each round (e.g., SGD), converge faster in terms of R but fail to exploit the similarity between clients even when clients are homogeneous. We propose FedChain, an algorithmic framework that combines the strengths of local methods and global methods to achieve fast convergence in terms of R while leveraging the similarity between clients. Using FedChain, we instantiate algorithms that improve upon previously known rates in the general convex and PL settings, and are near-optimal (via an algorithm-independent lower bound that we show) for problems that satisfy strong convexity. Empirical results support this theoretical gain over existing methods.
Neural networks are ubiquitous in many tasks, but trusting their predictions is an open issue. Uncertainty quantification is required for many applications, and disentangled aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are best. In this paper, we generalize methods to produce disentangled uncertainties to work with different uncertainty quantification methods, and evaluate their capability to produce disentangled uncertainties. Our results show that: there is an interaction between learning aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, which is unexpected and violates assumptions on aleatoric uncertainty, some methods like Flipout produce zero epistemic uncertainty, aleatoric uncertainty is unreliable in the out-of-distribution setting, and Ensembles provide overall the best disentangling quality. We also explore the error produced by the number of samples hyper-parameter in the sampling softmax function, recommending N > 100 samples. We expect that our formulation and results help practitioners and researchers choose uncertainty methods and expand the use of disentangled uncertainties, as well as motivate additional research into this topic.
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive and in-vivo imaging technique essential for measuring brain activity. Functional connectivity is used to study associations between brain regions either at rest or while study subjects perform tasks. In this paper, we propose a rigorous definition of task-evoked functional connectivity at the population level (ptFC). Importantly, our proposed ptFC is interpretable in the context of task-fMRI studies. An algorithm for estimating ptFC is provided. We present the performance of the proposed algorithm compared to existing functional connectivity estimation approaches using simulations. Lastly, we apply the proposed framework to estimate task-evoked functional connectivity in a motor-task study from the Human Connectome Project.
The fact that the millimeter-wave (mmWave) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channel has sparse support in the spatial domain has motivated recent compressed sensing (CS)-based mmWave channel estimation methods, where the angles of arrivals (AoAs) and angles of departures (AoDs) are quantized using angle dictionary matrices. However, the existing CS-based methods usually obtain the estimation result through one-stage channel sounding that have two limitations: (i) the requirement of large-dimensional dictionary and (ii) unresolvable quantization error. These two drawbacks are irreconcilable; improvement of the one implies deterioration of the other. To address these challenges, we propose, in this paper, a two-stage method to estimate the AoAs and AoDs of mmWave channels. In the proposed method, the channel estimation task is divided into two stages, Stage I and Stage II. Specifically, in Stage I, the AoAs are estimated by solving a multiple measurement vectors (MMV) problem. In Stage II, based on the estimated AoAs, the receive sounders are designed to estimate AoDs. The dimension of the angle dictionary in each stage can be reduced, which in turn reduces the computational complexity substantially. We then analyze the successful recovery probability (SRP) of the proposed method, revealing the superiority of the proposed framework over the existing one-stage CS-based methods. We further enhance the reconstruction performance by performing resource allocation between the two stages. We also overcome the unresolvable quantization error issue present in the prior techniques by applying the atomic norm minimization method to each stage of the proposed two-stage approach. The simulation results illustrate the substantially improved performance with low complexity of the proposed two-stage method.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
As machine learning is increasingly applied to high-impact, high-risk domains, there have been a number of new methods aimed at making AI models more human interpretable. Despite the recent growth of interpretability work, there is a lack of systematic evaluation of proposed techniques. In this work, we propose HIVE (Human Interpretability of Visual Explanations), a novel human evaluation framework for visual interpretability methods that allows for falsifiable hypothesis testing, cross-method comparison, and human-centered evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work of its kind. Using HIVE, we conduct IRB-approved human studies with nearly 1000 participants and evaluate four methods that represent the diversity of computer vision interpretability works: GradCAM, BagNet, ProtoPNet, and ProtoTree. Our results suggest that explanations engender human trust, even for incorrect predictions, yet are not distinct enough for users to distinguish between correct and incorrect predictions. We open-source HIVE to enable future studies and to encourage more human-centered approaches to interpretability research.
Imposing consistency through proxy tasks has been shown to enhance data-driven learning and enable self-supervision in various tasks. This paper introduces novel and effective consistency strategies for optical flow estimation, a problem where labels from real-world data are very challenging to derive. More specifically, we propose occlusion consistency and zero forcing in the forms of self-supervised learning and transformation consistency in the form of semi-supervised learning. We apply these consistency techniques in a way that the network model learns to describe pixel-level motions better while requiring no additional annotations. We demonstrate that our consistency strategies applied to a strong baseline network model using the original datasets and labels provide further improvements, attaining the state-of-the-art results on the KITTI-2015 scene flow benchmark in the non-stereo category. Our method achieves the best foreground accuracy (4.33% in Fl-all) over both the stereo and non-stereo categories, even though using only monocular image inputs.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
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