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The estimation of unknown parameters in simulations, also known as calibration, is crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk. A simple yet widely used approach is to estimate the parameters by minimizing the sum of the squared distances between actual observations and simulation outputs. It is shown in this paper that this method is inefficient, particularly when the epidemic models are developed based on certain simplifications of reality, also known as imperfect models which are commonly used in practice. To address this issue, a new estimator is introduced that is asymptotically consistent, has a smaller estimation variance than the least squares estimator, and achieves the semiparametric efficiency. Numerical studies are performed to examine the finite sample performance. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic for 20 countries based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model with both deterministic and stochastic simulations. The estimation of the parameters, including the basic reproduction number and the average incubation period, reveal the risk of disease outbreaks in each country and provide insights to the design of public health interventions.

In many modern statistical problems, the limited available data must be used both to develop the hypotheses to test, and to test these hypotheses-that is, both for exploratory and confirmatory data analysis. Reusing the same dataset for both exploration and testing can lead to massive selection bias, leading to many false discoveries. Selective inference is a framework that allows for performing valid inference even when the same data is reused for exploration and testing. In this work, we are interested in the problem of selective inference for data clustering, where a clustering procedure is used to hypothesize a separation of the data points into a collection of subgroups, and we then wish to test whether these data-dependent clusters in fact represent meaningful differences within the data. Recent work by Gao et al. [2022] provides a framework for doing selective inference for this setting, where a hierarchical clustering algorithm is used for producing the cluster assignments, which was then extended to k-means clustering by Chen and Witten [2022]. Both these works rely on assuming a known covariance structure for the data, but in practice, the noise level needs to be estimated-and this is particularly challenging when the true cluster structure is unknown. In our work, we extend this work to the setting of noise with unknown variance, and provide a selective inference method for this more general setting. Empirical results show that our new method is better able to maintain high power while controlling Type I error when the true noise level is unknown.

Interpretability is highly desired for deep neural network-based classifiers, especially when addressing high-stake decisions in medical imaging. Commonly used post-hoc interpretability methods have the limitation that they can produce plausible but different interpretations of a given model, leading to ambiguity about which one to choose. To address this problem, a novel decision-theory-motivated approach is investigated to establish a self-interpretable model, given a pretrained deep binary black-box medical image classifier. This approach involves utilizing a self-interpretable encoder-decoder model in conjunction with a single-layer fully connected network with unity weights. The model is trained to estimate the test statistic of the given trained black-box deep binary classifier to maintain a similar accuracy. The decoder output image, referred to as an equivalency map, is an image that represents a transformed version of the to-be-classified image that, when processed by the fixed fully connected layer, produces the same test statistic value as the original classifier. The equivalency map provides a visualization of the transformed image features that directly contribute to the test statistic value and, moreover, permits quantification of their relative contributions. Unlike the traditional post-hoc interpretability methods, the proposed method is self-interpretable, quantitative, and fundamentally based on decision theory. Detailed quantitative and qualitative analysis have been performed with three different medical image binary classification tasks.

The assessment of iris uniqueness plays a crucial role in analyzing the capabilities and limitations of iris recognition systems. Among the various methodologies proposed, Daugman's approach to iris uniqueness stands out as one of the most widely accepted. According to Daugman, uniqueness refers to the iris recognition system's ability to enroll an increasing number of classes while maintaining a near-zero probability of collision between new and enrolled classes. Daugman's approach involves creating distinct IrisCode templates for each iris class within the system and evaluating the sustainable population under a fixed Hamming distance between codewords. In our previous work [23], we utilized Rate-Distortion Theory (as it pertains to the limits of error-correction codes) to establish boundaries for the maximum possible population of iris classes supported by Daugman's IrisCode, given the constraint of a fixed Hamming distance between codewords. Building upon that research, we propose a novel methodology to evaluate the scalability of an iris recognition system, while also measuring iris quality. We achieve this by employing a sphere-packing bound for Gaussian codewords and adopting a approach similar to Daugman's, which utilizes relative entropy as a distance measure between iris classes. To demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology, we illustrate its application on two small datasets of iris images. We determine the sustainable maximum population for each dataset based on the quality of the images. By providing these illustrations, we aim to assist researchers in comprehending the limitations inherent in their recognition systems, depending on the quality of their iris databases.

Decision-makers often have access to a machine-learned prediction about demand, referred to as advice, which can potentially be utilized in online decision-making processes for resource allocation. However, exploiting such advice poses challenges due to its potential inaccuracy. To address this issue, we propose a framework that enhances online resource allocation decisions with potentially unreliable machine-learned (ML) advice. We assume here that this advice is represented by a general convex uncertainty set for the demand vector. We introduce a parameterized class of Pareto optimal online resource allocation algorithms that strike a balance between consistent and robust ratios. The consistent ratio measures the algorithm's performance (compared to the optimal hindsight solution) when the ML advice is accurate, while the robust ratio captures performance under an adversarial demand process when the advice is inaccurate. Specifically, in a C-Pareto optimal setting, we maximize the robust ratio while ensuring that the consistent ratio is at least C. Our proposed C-Pareto optimal algorithm is an adaptive protection level algorithm, which extends the classical fixed protection level algorithm introduced in Littlewood (2005) and Ball and Queyranne (2009). Solving a complex non-convex continuous optimization problem characterizes the adaptive protection level algorithm. To complement our algorithms, we present a simple method for computing the maximum achievable consistent ratio, which serves as an estimate for the maximum value of the ML advice. Additionally, we present numerical studies to evaluate the performance of our algorithm in comparison to benchmark algorithms. The results demonstrate that by adjusting the parameter C, our algorithms effectively strike a balance between worst-case and average performance, outperforming the benchmark algorithms.

Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) is a rapidly evolving area of research that seeks to optimize the sparse initialization of a neural network by adapting its topology during training. It has been shown that under specific conditions, DST is able to outperform dense models. The key components of this framework are the pruning and growing criteria, which are repeatedly applied during the training process to adjust the network's sparse connectivity. While the growing criterion's impact on DST performance is relatively well studied, the influence of the pruning criterion remains overlooked. To address this issue, we design and perform an extensive empirical analysis of various pruning criteria to better understand their effect on the dynamics of DST solutions. Surprisingly, we find that most of the studied methods yield similar results. The differences become more significant in the low-density regime, where the best performance is predominantly given by the simplest technique: magnitude-based pruning. The code is provided at //github.com/alooow/fantastic_weights_paper

A long-standing goal in scene understanding is to obtain interpretable and editable representations that can be directly constructed from a raw monocular RGB-D video, without requiring specialized hardware setup or priors. The problem is significantly more challenging in the presence of multiple moving and/or deforming objects. Traditional methods have approached the setup with a mix of simplifications, scene priors, pretrained templates, or known deformation models. The advent of neural representations, especially neural implicit representations and radiance fields, opens the possibility of end-to-end optimization to collectively capture geometry, appearance, and object motion. However, current approaches produce global scene encoding, assume multiview capture with limited or no motion in the scenes, and do not facilitate easy manipulation beyond novel view synthesis. In this work, we introduce a factored neural scene representation that can directly be learned from a monocular RGB-D video to produce object-level neural presentations with an explicit encoding of object movement (e.g., rigid trajectory) and/or deformations (e.g., nonrigid movement). We evaluate ours against a set of neural approaches on both synthetic and real data to demonstrate that the representation is efficient, interpretable, and editable (e.g., change object trajectory). Code and data are available at //geometry.cs.ucl.ac.uk/projects/2023/factorednerf .

Meta-analysis aggregates information across related studies to provide more reliable statistical inference and has been a vital tool for assessing the safety and efficacy of many high profile pharmaceutical products. A key challenge in conducting a meta-analysis is that the number of related studies is typically small. Applying classical methods that are asymptotic in the number of studies can compromise the validity of inference, particularly when heterogeneity across studies is present. Moreover, serious adverse events are often rare and can result in one or more studies with no events in at least one study arm. While it is common to use arbitrary continuity corrections or remove zero-event studies to stabilize or define effect estimates in such settings, these practices can invalidate subsequent inference. To address these significant practical issues, we introduce an exact inference method for comparing event rates in two treatment arms under a random effects framework, which we coin "XRRmeta". In contrast to existing methods, the coverage of the confidence interval from XRRmeta is guaranteed to be at or above the nominal level (up to Monte Carlo error) when the event rates, number of studies, and/or the within-study sample sizes are small. XRRmeta is also justified in its treatment of zero-event studies through a conditional inference argument. Importantly, our extensive numerical studies indicate that XRRmeta does not yield overly conservative inference. We apply our proposed method to reanalyze the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events among type II diabetics treated with rosiglitazone and in a more recent example examining the utility of face masks in preventing person-to-person transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.