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Barycenters (aka Fr\'echet means) were introduced in statistics in the 1940's and popularized in the fields of shape statistics and, later, in optimal transport and matrix analysis. They provide the most natural extension of linear averaging to non-Euclidean geometries, which is perhaps the most basic and widely used tool in data science. In various setups, their asymptotic properties, such as laws of large numbers and central limit theorems, have been established, but their non-asymptotic behaviour is still not well understood. In this work, we prove finite sample concentration inequalities (namely, generalizations of Hoeffding's and Bernstein's inequalities) for barycenters of i.i.d. random variables in metric spaces with non-positive curvature in Alexandrov's sense. As a byproduct, we also obtain PAC guarantees for a stochastic online algorithm that computes the barycenter of a finite collection of points in a non-positively curved space. We also discuss extensions of our results to spaces with possibly positive curvature.

We study the generalization properties of unregularized gradient methods applied to separable linear classification -- a setting that has received considerable attention since the pioneering work of Soudry et al. (2018). We establish tight upper and lower (population) risk bounds for gradient descent in this setting, for any smooth loss function, expressed in terms of its tail decay rate. Our bounds take the form $\Theta(r_{\ell,T}^2 / \gamma^2 T + r_{\ell,T}^2 / \gamma^2 n)$, where $T$ is the number of gradient steps, $n$ is size of the training set, $\gamma$ is the data margin, and $r_{\ell,T}$ is a complexity term that depends on the (tail decay rate) of the loss function (and on $T$). Our upper bound matches the best known upper bounds due to Shamir (2021); Schliserman and Koren (2022), while extending their applicability to virtually any smooth loss function and relaxing technical assumptions they impose. Our risk lower bounds are the first in this context and establish the tightness of our upper bounds for any given tail decay rate and in all parameter regimes. The proof technique used to show these results is also markedly simpler compared to previous work, and is straightforward to extend to other gradient methods; we illustrate this by providing analogous results for Stochastic Gradient Descent.

Regret minimization is a key component of many algorithms for finding Nash equilibria in imperfect-information games. To scale to games that cannot fit in memory, we can use search with value functions. However, calling the value functions repeatedly in search can be expensive. Therefore, it is desirable to minimize regret in the search tree as fast as possible. We propose to accelerate the regret minimization by introducing a general ``learning not to regret'' framework, where we meta-learn the regret minimizer. The resulting algorithm is guaranteed to minimize regret in arbitrary settings and is (meta)-learned to converge fast on a selected distribution of games. Our experiments show that meta-learned algorithms converge substantially faster than prior regret minimization algorithms.

Feature selection is the problem of selecting a subset of features for a machine learning model that maximizes model quality subject to a budget constraint. For neural networks, prior methods, including those based on $\ell_1$ regularization, attention, and other techniques, typically select the entire feature subset in one evaluation round, ignoring the residual value of features during selection, i.e., the marginal contribution of a feature given that other features have already been selected. We propose a feature selection algorithm called Sequential Attention that achieves state-of-the-art empirical results for neural networks. This algorithm is based on an efficient one-pass implementation of greedy forward selection and uses attention weights at each step as a proxy for feature importance. We give theoretical insights into our algorithm for linear regression by showing that an adaptation to this setting is equivalent to the classical Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) algorithm, and thus inherits all of its provable guarantees. Our theoretical and empirical analyses offer new explanations towards the effectiveness of attention and its connections to overparameterization, which may be of independent interest.

In recent years, empirical Bayesian (EB) inference has become an attractive approach for estimation in parametric models arising in a variety of real-life problems, especially in complex and high-dimensional scientific applications. However, compared to the relative abundance of available general methods for computing point estimators in the EB framework, the construction of confidence sets and hypothesis tests with good theoretical properties remains difficult and problem specific. Motivated by the universal inference framework of Wasserman et al. (2020), we propose a general and universal method, based on holdout likelihood ratios, and utilizing the hierarchical structure of the specified Bayesian model for constructing confidence sets and hypothesis tests that are finite sample valid. We illustrate our method through a range of numerical studies and real data applications, which demonstrate that the approach is able to generate useful and meaningful inferential statements in the relevant contexts.

The unit selection problem aims to identify objects, called units, that are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior when subjected to stimuli (e.g., customers who are about to churn but would change their mind if encouraged). Unit selection with counterfactual objective functions was introduced relatively recently with existing work focusing on bounding a specific class of objective functions, called the benefit functions, based on observational and interventional data -- assuming a fully specified model is not available to evaluate these functions. We complement this line of work by proposing the first exact algorithm for finding optimal units given a broad class of causal objective functions and a fully specified structural causal model (SCM). We show that unit selection under this class of objective functions is $\text{NP}^\text{PP}$-complete but is $\text{NP}$-complete when unit variables correspond to all exogenous variables in the SCM. We also provide treewidth-based complexity bounds on our proposed algorithm while relating it to a well-known algorithm for Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) inference.

We study optimality for the safety-constrained Markov decision process which is the underlying framework for safe reinforcement learning. Specifically, we consider a constrained Markov decision process (with finite states and finite actions) where the goal of the decision maker is to reach a target set while avoiding an unsafe set(s) with certain probabilistic guarantees. Therefore the underlying Markov chain for any control policy will be multichain since by definition there exists a target set and an unsafe set. The decision maker also has to be optimal (with respect to a cost function) while navigating to the target set. This gives rise to a multi-objective optimization problem. We highlight the fact that Bellman's principle of optimality may not hold for constrained Markov decision problems with an underlying multichain structure (as shown by the counterexample). We resolve the counterexample by formulating the aforementioned multi-objective optimization problem as a zero-sum game and thereafter construct an asynchronous value iteration scheme for the Lagrangian (similar to Shapley's algorithm. Finally, we consider the reinforcement learning problem for the same and construct a modified Q-learning algorithm for learning the Lagrangian from data. We also provide a lower bound on the number of iterations required for learning the Lagrangian and corresponding error bounds.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.