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The quantification of modern slavery has received increased attention recently as organizations have come together to produce global estimates, where multiple systems estimation (MSE) is often used to this end. Echoing a long-standing controversy, disagreements have re-surfaced regarding the underlying MSE assumptions, the robustness of MSE methodology, and the accuracy of MSE estimates in this application. Our goal is to help address and move past these controversies. To do so, we review MSE, its assumptions, and commonly used models for modern slavery applications. We introduce all of the publicly available modern slavery datasets in the literature, providing a reproducible analysis and highlighting current issues. Specifically, we utilize an internal consistency approach that constructs subsets of data for which ground truth is available, allowing us to evaluate the accuracy of MSE estimators. Next, we propose a characterization of the large sample bias of estimators as a function of misspecified assumptions. Then, we propose an alternative to traditional (e.g., bootstrap-based) assessments of reliability, which allows us to visualize trajectories of MSE estimates to illustrate the robustness of estimates. Finally, our complementary analyses are used to provide guidance regarding the application and reliability of MSE methodology.

This work presents Reliable-NIDS (R-NIDS), a novel methodology for Machine Learning (ML) based Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDSs) that allows ML models to work on integrated datasets, empowering the learning process with diverse information from different datasets. Therefore, R-NIDS targets the design of more robust models, that generalize better than traditional approaches. We also propose a new dataset, called UNK21. It is built from three of the most well-known network datasets (UGR'16, USNW-NB15 and NLS-KDD), each one gathered from its own network environment, with different features and classes, by using a data aggregation approach present in R-NIDS. Following R-NIDS, in this work we propose to build two well-known ML models (a linear and a non-linear one) based on the information of three of the most common datasets in the literature for NIDS evaluation, those integrated in UNK21. The results that the proposed methodology offers show how these two ML models trained as a NIDS solution could benefit from this approach, being able to generalize better when training on the newly proposed UNK21 dataset. Furthermore, these results are carefully analyzed with statistical tools that provide high confidence on our conclusions.

The study of generalisation in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) aims to produce RL algorithms whose policies generalise well to novel unseen situations at deployment time, avoiding overfitting to their training environments. Tackling this is vital if we are to deploy reinforcement learning algorithms in real world scenarios, where the environment will be diverse, dynamic and unpredictable. This survey is an overview of this nascent field. We provide a unifying formalism and terminology for discussing different generalisation problems, building upon previous works. We go on to categorise existing benchmarks for generalisation, as well as current methods for tackling the generalisation problem. Finally, we provide a critical discussion of the current state of the field, including recommendations for future work. Among other conclusions, we argue that taking a purely procedural content generation approach to benchmark design is not conducive to progress in generalisation, we suggest fast online adaptation and tackling RL-specific problems as some areas for future work on methods for generalisation, and we recommend building benchmarks in underexplored problem settings such as offline RL generalisation and reward-function variation.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical to ensuring the reliability and safety of machine learning systems. For instance, in autonomous driving, we would like the driving system to issue an alert and hand over the control to humans when it detects unusual scenes or objects that it has never seen before and cannot make a safe decision. This problem first emerged in 2017 and since then has received increasing attention from the research community, leading to a plethora of methods developed, ranging from classification-based to density-based to distance-based ones. Meanwhile, several other problems are closely related to OOD detection in terms of motivation and methodology. These include anomaly detection (AD), novelty detection (ND), open set recognition (OSR), and outlier detection (OD). Despite having different definitions and problem settings, these problems often confuse readers and practitioners, and as a result, some existing studies misuse terms. In this survey, we first present a generic framework called generalized OOD detection, which encompasses the five aforementioned problems, i.e., AD, ND, OSR, OOD detection, and OD. Under our framework, these five problems can be seen as special cases or sub-tasks, and are easier to distinguish. Then, we conduct a thorough review of each of the five areas by summarizing their recent technical developments. We conclude this survey with open challenges and potential research directions.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

Despite the success of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), mode collapse remains a serious issue during GAN training. To date, little work has focused on understanding and quantifying which modes have been dropped by a model. In this work, we visualize mode collapse at both the distribution level and the instance level. First, we deploy a semantic segmentation network to compare the distribution of segmented objects in the generated images with the target distribution in the training set. Differences in statistics reveal object classes that are omitted by a GAN. Second, given the identified omitted object classes, we visualize the GAN's omissions directly. In particular, we compare specific differences between individual photos and their approximate inversions by a GAN. To this end, we relax the problem of inversion and solve the tractable problem of inverting a GAN layer instead of the entire generator. Finally, we use this framework to analyze several recent GANs trained on multiple datasets and identify their typical failure cases.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been extensively studied in the past few years. Arguably the revolutionary techniques are in the area of computer vision such as plausible image generation, image to image translation, facial attribute manipulation and similar domains. Despite the significant success achieved in computer vision field, applying GANs over real-world problems still have three main challenges: (1) High quality image generation; (2) Diverse image generation; and (3) Stable training. Considering numerous GAN-related research in the literature, we provide a study on the architecture-variants and loss-variants, which are proposed to handle these three challenges from two perspectives. We propose loss and architecture-variants for classifying most popular GANs, and discuss the potential improvements with focusing on these two aspects. While several reviews for GANs have been presented, there is no work focusing on the review of GAN-variants based on handling challenges mentioned above. In this paper, we review and critically discuss 7 architecture-variant GANs and 9 loss-variant GANs for remedying those three challenges. The objective of this review is to provide an insight on the footprint that current GANs research focuses on the performance improvement. Code related to GAN-variants studied in this work is summarized on //github.com/sheqi/GAN_Review.

The quest of `can machines think' and `can machines do what human do' are quests that drive the development of artificial intelligence. Although recent artificial intelligence succeeds in many data intensive applications, it still lacks the ability of learning from limited exemplars and fast generalizing to new tasks. To tackle this problem, one has to turn to machine learning, which supports the scientific study of artificial intelligence. Particularly, a machine learning problem called Few-Shot Learning (FSL) targets at this case. It can rapidly generalize to new tasks of limited supervised experience by turning to prior knowledge, which mimics human's ability to acquire knowledge from few examples through generalization and analogy. It has been seen as a test-bed for real artificial intelligence, a way to reduce laborious data gathering and computationally costly training, and antidote for rare cases learning. With extensive works on FSL emerging, we give a comprehensive survey for it. We first give the formal definition for FSL. Then we point out the core issues of FSL, which turns the problem from "how to solve FSL" to "how to deal with the core issues". Accordingly, existing works from the birth of FSL to the most recent published ones are categorized in a unified taxonomy, with thorough discussion of the pros and cons for different categories. Finally, we envision possible future directions for FSL in terms of problem setup, techniques, applications and theory, hoping to provide insights to both beginners and experienced researchers.

In many applications, it is important to characterize the way in which two concepts are semantically related. Knowledge graphs such as ConceptNet provide a rich source of information for such characterizations by encoding relations between concepts as edges in a graph. When two concepts are not directly connected by an edge, their relationship can still be described in terms of the paths that connect them. Unfortunately, many of these paths are uninformative and noisy, which means that the success of applications that use such path features crucially relies on their ability to select high-quality paths. In existing applications, this path selection process is based on relatively simple heuristics. In this paper we instead propose to learn to predict path quality from crowdsourced human assessments. Since we are interested in a generic task-independent notion of quality, we simply ask human participants to rank paths according to their subjective assessment of the paths' naturalness, without attempting to define naturalness or steering the participants towards particular indicators of quality. We show that a neural network model trained on these assessments is able to predict human judgments on unseen paths with near optimal performance. Most notably, we find that the resulting path selection method is substantially better than the current heuristic approaches at identifying meaningful paths.

Singleton arc consistency is an important type of local consistency which has been recently shown to solve all constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) over constraint languages of bounded width. We aim to characterise all classes of CSPs defined by a forbidden pattern that are solved by singleton arc consistency and closed under removing constraints. We identify five new patterns whose absence ensures solvability by singleton arc consistency, four of which are provably maximal and three of which generalise 2-SAT. Combined with simple counter-examples for other patterns, we make significant progress towards a complete classification.