Mark-point dependence plays a critical role in research problems that can be fitted into the general framework of marked point processes. In this work, we focus on adjusting for mark-point dependence when estimating the mean and covariance functions of the mark process, given independent replicates of the marked point process. We assume that the mark process is a Gaussian process and the point process is a log-Gaussian Cox process, where the mark-point dependence is generated through the dependence between two latent Gaussian processes. Under this framework, naive local linear estimators ignoring the mark-point dependence can be severely biased. We show that this bias can be corrected using a local linear estimator of the cross-covariance function and establish uniform convergence rates of the bias-corrected estimators. Furthermore, we propose a test statistic based on local linear estimators for mark-point independence, which is shown to converge to an asymptotic normal distribution in a parametric $\sqrt{n}$-convergence rate. Model diagnostics tools are developed for key model assumptions and a robust functional permutation test is proposed for a more general class of mark-point processes. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated using extensive simulations and applications to two real data examples.
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Processing 是一門開源編程語言和與之配套的集成開發環境（IDE）的名稱。Processing 在電子藝術和視覺設計社區被用來教授編程基礎，并運用于大量的新媒體和互動藝術作品中。
In domains where sample sizes are limited, efficient learning algorithms are critical. Learning using privileged information (LuPI) offers increased sample efficiency by allowing prediction models access to types of information at training time which is unavailable when the models are used. In recent work, it was shown that for prediction in linear-Gaussian dynamical systems, a LuPI learner with access to intermediate time series data is never worse and often better in expectation than any unbiased classical learner. We provide new insights into this analysis and generalize it to nonlinear prediction tasks in latent dynamical systems, extending theoretical guarantees to the case where the map connecting latent variables and observations is known up to a linear transform. In addition, we propose algorithms based on random features and representation learning for the case when this map is unknown. A suite of empirical results confirm theoretical findings and show the potential of using privileged time-series information in nonlinear prediction.
This paper presents a statistical model for stationary ergodic point processes, estimated from a single realization observed in a square window. With existing approaches in stochastic geometry, it is very difficult to model processes with complex geometries formed by a large number of particles. Inspired by recent works on gradient descent algorithms for sampling maximum-entropy models, we describe a model that allows for fast sampling of new configurations reproducing the statistics of the given observation. Starting from an initial random configuration, its particles are moved according to the gradient of an energy, in order to match a set of prescribed moments (functionals). Our moments are defined via a phase harmonic operator on the wavelet transform of point patterns. They allow one to capture multi-scale interactions between the particles, while controlling explicitly the number of moments by the scales of the structures to model. We present numerical experiments on point processes with various geometric structures, and assess the quality of the model by spectral and topological data analysis.
In this paper, we consider function-indexed normalized weighted integrated periodograms for equidistantly sampled multivariate continuous-time state space models which are multivariate continuous-time ARMA processes. Thereby, the sampling distance is fixed and the driving L\'evy process has at least a finite fourth moment. Under different assumptions on the function space and the moments of the driving L\'evy process we derive a central limit theorem for the function-indexed normalized weighted integrated periodogram. Either the assumption on the function space or the assumption on the existence of moments of the L\'evy process is weaker. Furthermore, we show the weak convergence in both the space of continuous functions and in the dual space to a Gaussian process and give an explicit representation of the covariance function. The results can be used to derive the asymptotic behavior of the Whittle estimator and to construct goodness-of-fit test statistics as the Grenander-Rosenblatt statistic and the Cram\'er-von Mises statistic. We present the exact limit distributions of both statistics and show their performance through a simulation study.
We study the problem of high-dimensional sparse linear regression in a distributed setting under both computational and communication constraints. Specifically, we consider a star topology network whereby several machines are connected to a fusion center, with whom they can exchange relatively short messages. Each machine holds noisy samples from a linear regression model with the same unknown sparse $d$-dimensional vector of regression coefficients $\theta$. The goal of the fusion center is to estimate the vector $\theta$ and its support using few computations and limited communication at each machine. In this work, we consider distributed algorithms based on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) and theoretically study their ability to exactly recover the support of $\theta$. We prove that under certain conditions, even at low signal-to-noise-ratios where individual machines are unable to detect the support of $\theta$, distributed-OMP methods correctly recover it with total communication sublinear in $d$. In addition, we present simulations that illustrate the performance of distributed OMP-based algorithms and show that they perform similarly to more sophisticated and computationally intensive methods, and in some cases even outperform them.
Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural networks with underfitting in the case of small datasets or large model sizes. In this work, we show that invariances in the likelihood function of over-parametrised models contribute to this phenomenon because these invariances complicate the structure of the posterior by introducing discrete and/or continuous modes which cannot be well approximated by Gaussian mean-field distributions. In particular, we show that the mean-field approximation has an additional gap in the evidence lower bound compared to a purpose-built posterior that takes into account the known invariances. Importantly, this invariance gap is not constant; it vanishes as the approximation reverts to the prior. We proceed by first considering translation invariances in a linear model with a single data point in detail. We show that, while the true posterior can be constructed from a mean-field parametrisation, this is achieved only if the objective function takes into account the invariance gap. Then, we transfer our analysis of the linear model to neural networks. Our analysis provides a framework for future work to explore solutions to the invariance problem.
We propose a local version of spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes using Local Indicators of Spatio-Temporal Association (LISTA) functions into the minimum contrast procedure to obtain space as well as time-varying parameters. We resort to the joint minimum contrast fitting method to estimate the set of second-order parameters. This approach has the advantage of being suitable in both separable and non-separable parametric specifications of the correlation function of the underlying Gaussian Random Field. We present simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed fitting procedure, and show an application to seismic spatio-temporal point pattern data.
A general framework with a series of different methods is proposed to improve the estimate of convex function (or functional) values when only noisy observations of the true input are available. Technically, our methods catch the bias introduced by the convexity and remove this bias from a baseline estimate. Theoretical analysis are conducted to show that the proposed methods can strictly reduce the expected estimate error under mild conditions. When applied, the methods require no specific knowledge about the problem except the convexity and the evaluation of the function. Therefore, they can serve as off-the-shelf tools to obtain good estimate for a wide range of problems, including optimization problems with random objective functions or constraints, and functionals of probability distributions such as the entropy and the Wasserstein distance. Numerical experiments on a wide variety of problems show that our methods can significantly improve the quality of the estimate compared with the baseline method.
Intravascular ultrasound and optical coherence tomography are widely available for characterizing coronary stenoses and provide critical vessel parameters to optimize percutaneous intervention. Intravascular polarization-sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) simultaneously provides high-resolution cross-sectional images of vascular structures while also revealing preponderant tissue components such as collagen and smooth muscle and thereby enhances plaque characterization. Automated interpretation of these features promises to facilitate the objective clinical investigation of the natural history and significance of coronary atheromas. Here, we propose a convolutional neural network model, optimized using a new multi-term loss function, to classify the lumen, intima, and media layers in addition to the guidewire and plaque shadows. We demonstrate that our multi-class classification model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in detecting the coronary anatomical layers. Furthermore, the proposed model segments two classes of common imaging artifacts and detects the anatomical layers within the thickened vessel wall regions that were excluded from analysis by other studies. The source code and the trained model are publicly available at //github.com/mhaft/OCTseg
We study the problem of estimating an unknown parameter in a distributed and online manner. Existing work on distributed online learning typically either focuses on asymptotic analysis, or provides bounds on regret. However, these results may not directly translate into bounds on the error of the learned model after a finite number of time-steps. In this paper, we propose a distributed online estimation algorithm which enables each agent in a network to improve its estimation accuracy by communicating with neighbors. We provide non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error, leveraging the statistical properties of the underlying model. Our analysis demonstrates a trade-off between estimation error and communication costs. Further, our analysis allows us to determine a time at which the communication can be stopped (due to the costs associated with communications), while meeting a desired estimation accuracy. We also provide a numerical example to validate our results.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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