This paper introduces an algorithm for the detection of change-points and the identification of the corresponding subsequences in transient multivariate time-series data (MTSD). The analysis of such data has become more and more important due to the increase of availability in many industrial fields. Labeling, sorting or filtering highly transient measurement data for training condition based maintenance (CbM) models is cumbersome and error-prone. For some applications it can be sufficient to filter measurements by simple thresholds or finding change-points based on changes in mean value and variation. But a robust diagnosis of a component within a component group for example, which has a complex non-linear correlation between multiple sensor values, a simple approach would not be feasible. No meaningful and coherent measurement data which could be used for training a CbM model would emerge. Therefore, we introduce an algorithm which uses a recurrent neural network (RNN) based Autoencoder (AE) which is iteratively trained on incoming data. The scoring function uses the reconstruction error and latent space information. A model of the identified subsequence is saved and used for recognition of repeating subsequences as well as fast offline clustering. For evaluation, we propose a new similarity measure based on the curvature for a more intuitive time-series subsequence clustering metric. A comparison with seven other state-of-the-art algorithms and eight datasets shows the capability and the increased performance of our algorithm to cluster MTSD online and offline in conjunction with mechatronic systems.
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In domains where sample sizes are limited, efficient learning algorithms are critical. Learning using privileged information (LuPI) offers increased sample efficiency by allowing prediction models access to auxiliary information at training time which is unavailable when the models are used. In recent work, it was shown that for prediction in linear-Gaussian dynamical systems, a LuPI learner with access to intermediate time series data is never worse and often better in expectation than any unbiased classical learner. We provide new insights into this analysis and generalize it to nonlinear prediction tasks in latent dynamical systems, extending theoretical guarantees to the case where the map connecting latent variables and observations is known up to a linear transform. In addition, we propose algorithms based on random features and representation learning for the case when this map is unknown. A suite of empirical results confirm theoretical findings and show the potential of using privileged time-series information in nonlinear prediction.
We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo approach to online smoothing of additive functionals in a very general class of path-space models. Hitherto, the solutions proposed in the literature suffer from either long-term numerical instability due to particle-path degeneracy or, in the case that degeneracy is remedied by particle approximation of the so-called backward kernel, high computational demands. In order to balance optimally computational speed against numerical stability, we propose to furnish a (fast) naive particle smoother, propagating recursively a sample of particles and associated smoothing statistics, with an adaptive backward-sampling-based updating rule which allows the number of (costly) backward samples to be kept at a minimum. This yields a new, function-specific additive smoothing algorithm, AdaSmooth, which is computationally fast, numerically stable and easy to implement. The algorithm is provided with rigorous theoretical results guaranteeing its consistency, asymptotic normality and long-term stability as well as numerical results demonstrating empirically the clear superiority of AdaSmooth to existing algorithms.
Learning world models from their sensory inputs enables agents to plan for actions by imagining their future outcomes. World models have previously been shown to improve sample-efficiency in simulated environments with few objects, but have not yet been applied successfully to environments with many objects. In environments with many objects, often only a small number of them are moving or interacting at the same time. In this paper, we investigate integrating this inductive bias of sparse interactions into the latent dynamics of world models trained from pixels. First, we introduce Variational Sparse Gating (VSG), a latent dynamics model that updates its feature dimensions sparsely through stochastic binary gates. Moreover, we propose a simplified architecture Simple Variational Sparse Gating (SVSG) that removes the deterministic pathway of previous models, resulting in a fully stochastic transition function that leverages the VSG mechanism. We evaluate the two model architectures in the BringBackShapes (BBS) environment that features a large number of moving objects and partial observability, demonstrating clear improvements over prior models.
We tackle the problem of novel class discovery, detection, and localization (NCDL). In this setting, we assume a source dataset with labels for objects of commonly observed classes. Instances of other classes need to be discovered, classified, and localized automatically based on visual similarity, without human supervision. To this end, we propose a two-stage object detection network Region-based NCDL (RNCDL), that uses a region proposal network to localize object candidates and is trained to classify each candidate, either as one of the known classes, seen in the source dataset, or one of the extended set of novel classes, with a long-tail distribution constraint on the class assignments, reflecting the natural frequency of classes in the real world. By training our detection network with this objective in an end-to-end manner, it learns to classify all region proposals for a large variety of classes, including those that are not part of the labeled object class vocabulary. Our experiments conducted using COCO and LVIS datasets reveal that our method is significantly more effective compared to multi-stage pipelines that rely on traditional clustering algorithms or use pre-extracted crops. Furthermore, we demonstrate the generality of our approach by applying our method to a large-scale Visual Genome dataset, where our network successfully learns to detect various semantic classes without explicit supervision.
In reinforcement learning from human feedback, it is common to optimize against a reward model trained to predict human preferences. Because the reward model is an imperfect proxy, optimizing its value too much can hinder ground truth performance, in accordance with Goodhart's law. This effect has been frequently observed, but not carefully measured due to the expense of collecting human preference data. In this work, we use a synthetic setup in which a fixed "gold-standard" reward model plays the role of humans, providing labels used to train a proxy reward model. We study how the gold reward model score changes as we optimize against the proxy reward model using either reinforcement learning or best-of-$n$ sampling. We find that this relationship follows a different functional form depending on the method of optimization, and that in both cases its coefficients scale smoothly with the number of reward model parameters. We also study the effect on this relationship of the size of the reward model dataset, the number of reward model and policy parameters, and the coefficient of the KL penalty added to the reward in the reinforcement learning setup. We explore the implications of these empirical results for theoretical considerations in AI alignment.
High-dimensional matrix-variate time series data are becoming widely available in many scientific fields, such as economics, biology, and meteorology. To achieve significant dimension reduction while preserving the intrinsic matrix structure and temporal dynamics in such data, Wang et al. (2017) proposed a matrix factor model that is shown to provide effective analysis. In this paper, we establish a general framework for incorporating domain or prior knowledge in the matrix factor model through linear constraints. The proposed framework is shown to be useful in achieving parsimonious parameterization, facilitating interpretation of the latent matrix factor, and identifying specific factors of interest. Fully utilizing the prior-knowledge-induced constraints results in more efficient and accurate modeling, inference, dimension reduction as well as a clear and better interpretation of the results. In this paper, constrained, multi-term, and partially constrained factor models for matrix-variate time series are developed, with efficient estimation procedures and their asymptotic properties. We show that the convergence rates of the constrained factor loading matrices are much faster than those of the conventional matrix factor analysis under many situations. Simulation studies are carried out to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed method and its associated asymptotic properties. We illustrate the proposed model with three applications, where the constrained matrix-factor models outperform their unconstrained counterparts in the power of variance explanation under the out-of-sample 10-fold cross-validation setting.
Learning sentence embeddings in an unsupervised manner is fundamental in natural language processing. Recent common practice is to couple pre-trained language models with unsupervised contrastive learning, whose success relies on augmenting a sentence with a semantically-close positive instance to construct contrastive pairs. Nonetheless, existing approaches usually depend on a mono-augmenting strategy, which causes learning shortcuts towards the augmenting biases and thus corrupts the quality of sentence embeddings. A straightforward solution is resorting to more diverse positives from a multi-augmenting strategy, while an open question remains about how to unsupervisedly learn from the diverse positives but with uneven augmenting qualities in the text field. As one answer, we propose a novel Peer-Contrastive Learning (PCL) with diverse augmentations. PCL constructs diverse contrastive positives and negatives at the group level for unsupervised sentence embeddings. PCL performs peer-positive contrast as well as peer-network cooperation, which offers an inherent anti-bias ability and an effective way to learn from diverse augmentations. Experiments on STS benchmarks verify the effectiveness of PCL against its competitors in unsupervised sentence embeddings.
We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to achieve a scalable simulation-based inference approach. SNVI maintains the flexibility of likelihood(-ratio) estimation to allow arbitrary proposals for simulations, while simultaneously providing a functional estimate of the posterior distribution without requiring MCMC sampling. We present several variants of SNVI and demonstrate that they are substantially more computationally efficient than previous algorithms, without loss of accuracy on benchmark tasks. We apply SNVI to a neuroscience model of the pyloric network in the crab and demonstrate that it can infer the posterior distribution with one order of magnitude fewer simulations than previously reported. SNVI vastly reduces the computational cost of simulation-based inference while maintaining accuracy and flexibility, making it possible to tackle problems that were previously inaccessible.
Vast amount of data generated from networks of sensors, wearables, and the Internet of Things (IoT) devices underscores the need for advanced modeling techniques that leverage the spatio-temporal structure of decentralized data due to the need for edge computation and licensing (data access) issues. While federated learning (FL) has emerged as a framework for model training without requiring direct data sharing and exchange, effectively modeling the complex spatio-temporal dependencies to improve forecasting capabilities still remains an open problem. On the other hand, state-of-the-art spatio-temporal forecasting models assume unfettered access to the data, neglecting constraints on data sharing. To bridge this gap, we propose a federated spatio-temporal model -- Cross-Node Federated Graph Neural Network (CNFGNN) -- which explicitly encodes the underlying graph structure using graph neural network (GNN)-based architecture under the constraint of cross-node federated learning, which requires that data in a network of nodes is generated locally on each node and remains decentralized. CNFGNN operates by disentangling the temporal dynamics modeling on devices and spatial dynamics on the server, utilizing alternating optimization to reduce the communication cost, facilitating computations on the edge devices. Experiments on the traffic flow forecasting task show that CNFGNN achieves the best forecasting performance in both transductive and inductive learning settings with no extra computation cost on edge devices, while incurring modest communication cost.
Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.
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