Calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used to assess the quality of univariate distributional forecasts. However, PIT-based calibration tests for multivariate distributional forecasts face various challenges. We propose two new types of tests based on proper scoring rules, which overcome these challenges. They arise from a general framework for calibration testing in the multivariate case, introduced in this work. The new tests have good size and power properties in simulations and solve various problems of existing tests. We apply the tests to forecast distributions for macroeconomic and financial time series data.
The matched case-control design, up until recently mostly pertinent to epidemiological studies, is becoming customary in biomedical applications as well. For instance, in omics studies, it is quite common to compare cancer and healthy tissue from the same patient. Furthermore, researchers today routinely collect data from various and variable sources that they wish to relate to the case-control status. This highlights the need to develop and implement statistical methods that can take these tendencies into account. We present an R package penalizedclr, that provides an implementation of the penalized conditional logistic regression model for analyzing matched case-control studies. It allows for different penalties for different blocks of covariates, and it is therefore particularly useful in the presence of multi-source omics data. Both L1 and L2 penalties are implemented. Additionally, the package implements stability selection for variable selection in the considered regression model. The proposed method fills a gap in the available software for fitting high-dimensional conditional logistic regression model accounting for the matched design and block structure of predictors/features. The output consists of a set of selected variables that are significantly associated with case-control status. These features can then be investigated in terms of functional interpretation or validation in further, more targeted studies.
This study examines whether income distribution in Thailand has a property of scale invariance or self-similarity across years. By using the data on income shares by quintile and by decile of Thailand from 1988 to 2021, the results from 306-pairwise Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests indicate that income distribution in Thailand is statistically scale-invariant or self-similar across years with p-values ranging between 0.988 and 1.000. Based on these empirical findings, this study would like to propose that, in order to change income distribution in Thailand whose pattern had persisted for over three decades, the change itself cannot be gradual but has to be like a phase transition of substance in physics.
The integer autoregressive (INAR) model is one of the most commonly used models in nonnegative integer-valued time series analysis and is a counterpart to the traditional autoregressive model for continuous-valued time series. To guarantee the integer-valued nature, the binomial thinning operator or more generally the generalized Steutel and van Harn operator is used to define the INAR model. However, the distributions of the counting sequences used in the operators have been determined by the preference of analyst without statistical verification so far. In this paper, we propose a test based on the mean and variance relationships for distributions of counting sequences and a disturbance process to check if the operator is reasonable. We show that our proposed test has asymptotically correct size and is consistent. Numerical simulation is carried out to evaluate the finite sample performance of our test. As a real data application, we apply our test to the monthly number of anorexia cases in animals submitted to animal health laboratories in New Zealand and we conclude that binomial thinning operator is not appropriate.
Neural operators (NO) are discretization invariant deep learning methods with functional output and can approximate any continuous operator. NO have demonstrated the superiority of solving partial differential equations (PDEs) over other deep learning methods. However, the spatial domain of its input function needs to be identical to its output, which limits its applicability. For instance, the widely used Fourier neural operator (FNO) fails to approximate the operator that maps the boundary condition to the PDE solution. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework called resolution-invariant deep operator (RDO) that decouples the spatial domain of the input and output. RDO is motivated by the Deep operator network (DeepONet) and it does not require retraining the network when the input/output is changed compared with DeepONet. RDO takes functional input and its output is also functional so that it keeps the resolution invariant property of NO. It can also resolve PDEs with complex geometries whereas NO fail. Various numerical experiments demonstrate the advantage of our method over DeepONet and FNO.
This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties such as identifiability and computational tractability for many assets. A sufficient condition of the strict stationarity is derived for the new process. Two quasi-maximum likelihood estimation methods are proposed for the new model with and without low-rank constraints on the coefficient matrices respectively, and the asymptotic properties for both estimators are established. Moreover, a Bayesian information criterion with selection consistency is developed for order selection, and the testing for volatility spillover effects is carefully discussed. The finite sample performance of the proposed methods is evaluated in simulation studies for small and moderate dimensions. The usefulness of the new model and its inference tools is illustrated by two empirical examples for 5 stock markets and 17 industry portfolios, respectively.
We propose a new numerical domain decomposition method for solving elliptic equations on compact Riemannian manifolds. One advantage of this method is its ability to bypass the need for global triangulations or grids on the manifolds. Additionally, it features a highly parallel iterative scheme. To verify its efficacy, we conduct numerical experiments on some $4$-dimensional manifolds without and with boundary.
The human cerebral cortex has many bumps and grooves called gyri and sulci. Even though there is a high inter-individual consistency for the main cortical folds, this is not the case when we examine the exact shapes and details of the folding patterns. Because of this complexity, characterizing the cortical folding variability and relating them to subjects' behavioral characteristics or pathologies is still an open scientific problem. Classical approaches include labeling a few specific patterns, either manually or semi-automatically, based on geometric distances, but the recent availability of MRI image datasets of tens of thousands of subjects makes modern deep-learning techniques particularly attractive. Here, we build a self-supervised deep-learning model to detect folding patterns in the cingulate region. We train a contrastive self-supervised model (SimCLR) on both Human Connectome Project (1101 subjects) and UKBioBank (21070 subjects) datasets with topological-based augmentations on the cortical skeletons, which are topological objects that capture the shape of the folds. We explore several backbone architectures (convolutional network, DenseNet, and PointNet) for the SimCLR. For evaluation and testing, we perform a linear classification task on a database manually labeled for the presence of the "double-parallel" folding pattern in the cingulate region, which is related to schizophrenia characteristics. The best model, giving a test AUC of 0.76, is a convolutional network with 6 layers, a 10-dimensional latent space, a linear projection head, and using the branch-clipping augmentation. This is the first time that a self-supervised deep learning model has been applied to cortical skeletons on such a large dataset and quantitatively evaluated. We can now envisage the next step: applying it to other brain regions to detect other biomarkers.
Among semiparametric regression models, partially linear additive models provide a useful tool to include additive nonparametric components as well as a parametric component, when explaining the relationship between the response and a set of explanatory variables. This paper concerns such models under sparsity assumptions for the covariates included in the linear component. Sparse covariates are frequent in regression problems where the task of variable selection is usually of interest. As in other settings, outliers either in the residuals or in the covariates involved in the linear component have a harmful effect. To simultaneously achieve model selection for the parametric component of the model and resistance to outliers, we combine preliminary robust estimators of the additive component, robust linear $MM-$regression estimators with a penalty such as SCAD on the coefficients in the parametric part. Under mild assumptions, consistency results and rates of convergence for the proposed estimators are derived. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to compare, under different models and contamination schemes, the performance of the robust proposal with its classical counterpart. The obtained results show the advantage of using the robust approach. Through the analysis of a real data set, we also illustrate the benefits of the proposed procedure.
With the development and popularity of sensors installed in manufacturing systems, complex data are collected during manufacturing processes, which brings challenges for traditional process control methods. This paper proposes a novel process control and monitoring method for the complex structure of high-dimensional image-based overlay errors (modeled in tensor form), which are collected in semiconductor manufacturing processes. The proposed method aims to reduce overlay errors using limited control recipes. We first build a high-dimensional process model and propose different tensor-on-vector regression algorithms to estimate parameters in the model to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. Then, based on the estimate of tensor parameters, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) controller for tensor data is designed whose stability is theoretically guaranteed. Considering the fact that low-dimensional control recipes cannot compensate for all high-dimensional disturbances on the image, control residuals are monitored to prevent significant drifts of uncontrollable high-dimensional disturbances. Through extensive simulations and real case studies, the performances of parameter estimation algorithms and the EWMA controller in tensor space are evaluated. Compared with existing image-based feedback controllers, the superiority of our method is verified especially when disturbances are not stable.
Time series and extreme value analyses are two statistical approaches usually applied to study hydrological data. Classical techniques, such as ARIMA models (in the case of mean flow predictions), and parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) fits and nonparametric extreme value methods (in the case of extreme value theory) have been usually employed in this context. In this paper, nonparametric functional data methods are used to perform mean monthly flow predictions and extreme value analysis, which are important for flood risk management. These are powerful tools that take advantage of both, the functional nature of the data under consideration and the flexibility of nonparametric methods, providing more reliable results. Therefore, they can be useful to prevent damage caused by floods and to reduce the likelihood and/or the impact of floods in a specific location. The nonparametric functional approaches are applied to flow samples of two rivers in the U.S. In this way, monthly mean flow is predicted and flow quantiles in the extreme value framework are estimated using the proposed methods. Results show that the nonparametric functional techniques work satisfactorily, generally outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric and nonparametric estimators in both settings.