In an ideal setting for Bayesian agents, a perfect description of the rules of the environment (i.e., the objective observation model) is available, allowing them to reason through the Bayesian posterior to update their beliefs in an optimal way. But such an ideal setting hardly ever exists in the natural world, so agents have to make do with reasoning about how they should update their beliefs simultaneously. This introduces a number of related challenges for a number of research areas: (1) For Bayesian statistics, this deviation of the subjective model from the true data-generating mechanism is termed model misspecification in the literature. (2) For neuroscience, it introduces the necessity to model how the agents' belief updates (how they use evidence to update their belief) and how their belief changes over time. The current paper addresses these two challenges by (a) providing a general class of posteriors/belief updates called cut-posteriors of Bayesian networks that have a much greater expressivity, and (b) parameterizing the space of possible posteriors to make meta-learning (i.e., choosing the belief update from this space in a principled manner) possible. For (a), it is noteworthy that any cut-posterior has local computation only, making computation tractable for human or artificial agents. For (b), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform such meta-learning will be sketched here, though it is only an illustration and but no means the only possible meta-learning procedure possible for the space of cut-posteriors. Operationally, this work gives a general algorithm to take in an arbitrary Bayesian network and output all possible cut-posteriors in the space.
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One of the fundamental challenges in drawing causal inferences from observational studies is that the assumption of no unmeasured confounding is not testable from observed data. Therefore, assessing sensitivity to this assumption's violation is important to obtain valid causal conclusions in observational studies. Although several sensitivity analysis frameworks are available in the casual inference literature, very few of them are applicable to observational studies with multivalued treatments. To address this issue, we propose a sensitivity analysis framework for performing sensitivity analysis in multivalued treatment settings. Within this framework, a general class of additive causal estimands has been proposed. We demonstrate that the estimation of the causal estimands under the proposed sensitivity model can be performed very efficiently. Simulation results show that the proposed framework performs well in terms of bias of the point estimates and coverage of the confidence intervals when there is sufficient overlap in the covariate distributions. We illustrate the application of our proposed method by conducting an observational study that estimates the causal effect of fish consumption on blood mercury levels.
Due to the increasing volume, volatility, and diversity of data in virtually all areas of our lives, the ability to detect duplicates in potentially linked data sources is more important than ever before. However, while research is already intensively engaged in adapting duplicate detection algorithms to the changing circumstances, existing test data generators are still designed for small -- mostly relational -- datasets and can thus fulfill their intended task only to a limited extent. In this report, we present our ongoing research on a novel approach for test data generation that -- in contrast to existing solutions -- is able to produce large test datasets with complex schemas and more realistic error patterns while being easy to use for inexperienced users.
The objective of the KPR agents are to learn themselves in the minimum (learning) time to have maximum success or utilization probability ($f$). A dictator can easily solve the problem with $f = 1$ in no time, by asking every one to form a queue and go to the respective restaurant, resulting in no fluctuation and full utilization from the first day (convergence time $\tau = 0$). It has already been shown that if each agent chooses randomly the restaurants, $f = 1 - e^{-1} \simeq 0.63$ (where $e \simeq 2.718$ denotes the Euler number) in zero time ($\tau = 0$). With the only available information about yesterday's crowd size in the restaurant visited by the agent (as assumed for the rest of the strategies studied here), the crowd avoiding (CA) strategies can give higher values of $f$ but also of $\tau$. Several numerical studies of modified learning strategies actually indicated increased value of $f = 1 - \alpha$ for $\alpha \to 0$, with $\tau \sim 1/\alpha$. We show here using Monte Carlo technique, a modified Greedy Crowd Avoiding (GCA) Strategy can assure full utilization ($f = 1$) in convergence time $\tau \simeq eN$, with of course non-zero probability for an even larger convergence time. All these observations suggest that the strategies with single step memory of the individuals can never collectively achieve full utilization ($f = 1$) in finite convergence time and perhaps the maximum possible utilization that can be achieved is about eighty percent ($f \simeq 0.80$) in an optimal time $\tau$ of order ten, even when $N$ the number of customers or of the restaurants goes to infinity.
The recycling of waste electrical and electronic equipment is an essential tool in allowing for a circular economy, presenting the potential for significant environmental and economic gain. However, traditional material separation techniques, based on physical and chemical processes, require substantial investment and do not apply to all cases. In this work, we investigate using an image classification neural network as a potential means to control an automated material separation process in treating smartphone waste, acting as a more efficient, less costly, and more widely applicable alternative to existing tools. We produced a dataset with 1,127 images of pyrolyzed smartphone components, which was then used to train and assess a VGG-16 image classification model. The model achieved 83.33% accuracy, lending credence to the viability of using such a neural network in material separation.
Mathematical reasoning is a fundamental aspect of human intelligence and is applicable in various fields, including science, engineering, finance, and everyday life. The development of artificial intelligence (AI) systems capable of solving math problems and proving theorems has garnered significant interest in the fields of machine learning and natural language processing. For example, mathematics serves as a testbed for aspects of reasoning that are challenging for powerful deep learning models, driving new algorithmic and modeling advances. On the other hand, recent advances in large-scale neural language models have opened up new benchmarks and opportunities to use deep learning for mathematical reasoning. In this survey paper, we review the key tasks, datasets, and methods at the intersection of mathematical reasoning and deep learning over the past decade. We also evaluate existing benchmarks and methods, and discuss future research directions in this domain.
Knowledge graphs represent factual knowledge about the world as relationships between concepts and are critical for intelligent decision making in enterprise applications. New knowledge is inferred from the existing facts in the knowledge graphs by encoding the concepts and relations into low-dimensional feature vector representations. The most effective representations for this task, called Knowledge Graph Embeddings (KGE), are learned through neural network architectures. Due to their impressive predictive performance, they are increasingly used in high-impact domains like healthcare, finance and education. However, are the black-box KGE models adversarially robust for use in domains with high stakes? This thesis argues that state-of-the-art KGE models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks, that is, their predictive performance can be degraded by systematically crafted perturbations to the training knowledge graph. To support this argument, two novel data poisoning attacks are proposed that craft input deletions or additions at training time to subvert the learned model's performance at inference time. These adversarial attacks target the task of predicting the missing facts in knowledge graphs using KGE models, and the evaluation shows that the simpler attacks are competitive with or outperform the computationally expensive ones. The thesis contributions not only highlight and provide an opportunity to fix the security vulnerabilities of KGE models, but also help to understand the black-box predictive behaviour of KGE models.
In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.
As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.
We address the task of automatically scoring the competency of candidates based on textual features, from the automatic speech recognition (ASR) transcriptions in the asynchronous video job interview (AVI). The key challenge is how to construct the dependency relation between questions and answers, and conduct the semantic level interaction for each question-answer (QA) pair. However, most of the recent studies in AVI focus on how to represent questions and answers better, but ignore the dependency information and interaction between them, which is critical for QA evaluation. In this work, we propose a Hierarchical Reasoning Graph Neural Network (HRGNN) for the automatic assessment of question-answer pairs. Specifically, we construct a sentence-level relational graph neural network to capture the dependency information of sentences in or between the question and the answer. Based on these graphs, we employ a semantic-level reasoning graph attention network to model the interaction states of the current QA session. Finally, we propose a gated recurrent unit encoder to represent the temporal question-answer pairs for the final prediction. Empirical results conducted on CHNAT (a real-world dataset) validate that our proposed model significantly outperforms text-matching based benchmark models. Ablation studies and experimental results with 10 random seeds also show the effectiveness and stability of our models.
Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.
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