Generative adversarial networks constitute a powerful approach to generative modeling. While generated samples often are indistinguishable from real data, there is no guarantee that they will follow the true data distribution. In this work, we propose a method to ensure that the distributions of certain generated data statistics coincide with the respective distributions of the real data. In order to achieve this, we add a Kullback-Leibler term to the generator loss function: the KL divergence is taken between the true distributions as represented by a conditional energy-based model, and the corresponding generated distributions obtained from minibatch values at each iteration. We evaluate the method on a synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets and demonstrate improved performance of our method.
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The application of deep learning to non-stationary temporal datasets can lead to overfitted models that underperform under regime changes. In this work, we propose a modular machine learning pipeline for ranking predictions on temporal panel datasets which is robust under regime changes. The modularity of the pipeline allows the use of different models, including Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and Neural Networks, with and without feature engineering. We evaluate our framework on financial data for stock portfolio prediction, and find that GBDT models with dropout display high performance, robustness and generalisability with reduced complexity and computational cost. We then demonstrate how online learning techniques, which require no retraining of models, can be used post-prediction to enhance the results. First, we show that dynamic feature projection improves robustness by reducing drawdown in regime changes. Second, we demonstrate that dynamical model ensembling based on selection of models with good recent performance leads to improved Sharpe and Calmar ratios of out-of-sample predictions. We also evaluate the robustness of our pipeline across different data splits and random seeds with good reproducibility.
Transformer-based language models (TLMs) have widely been recognized to be a cutting-edge technology for the successful development of deep-learning-based solutions to problems and applications that require natural language processing and understanding. Like for other textual domains, TLMs have indeed pushed the state-of-the-art of AI approaches for many tasks of interest in the legal domain. Despite the first Transformer model being proposed about six years ago, there has been a rapid progress of this technology at an unprecedented rate, whereby BERT and related models represent a major reference, also in the legal domain. This article provides the first systematic overview of TLM-based methods for AI-driven problems and tasks in the legal sphere. A major goal is to highlight research advances in this field so as to understand, on the one hand, how the Transformers have contributed to the success of AI in supporting legal processes, and on the other hand, what are the current limitations and opportunities for further research development.
Neural networks have revolutionized the field of machine learning with increased predictive capability. In addition to improving the predictions of neural networks, there is a simultaneous demand for reliable uncertainty quantification on estimates made by machine learning methods such as neural networks. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are an important type of neural network with built-in capability for quantifying uncertainty. This paper discusses aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in BNNs and how they can be calculated. With an example dataset of images where the goal is to identify the amplitude of an event in the image, it is shown that epistemic uncertainty tends to be lower in images which are well-represented in the training dataset and tends to be high in images which are not well-represented. An algorithm for out-of-distribution (OoD) detection with BNN epistemic uncertainty is introduced along with various experiments demonstrating factors influencing the OoD detection capability in a BNN. The OoD detection capability with epistemic uncertainty is shown to be comparable to the OoD detection in the discriminator network of a generative adversarial network (GAN) with comparable network architecture.
Very distinct strategies can be deployed to recognize and characterize an unknown environment or a shape. A recent and promising approach, especially in robotics, is to reduce the complexity of the exploratory units to a minimum. Here, we show that this frugal strategy can be taken to the extreme by exploiting the power of statistical geometry and introducing new invariant features. We show that an elementary robot devoid of any orientation or observation system, exploring randomly, can access global information about an environment such as the values of the explored area and perimeter. The explored shapes are of arbitrary geometry and may even non-connected. From a dictionary, this most simple robot can thus identify various shapes such as famous monuments and even read a text.
Linear statistics of point processes yield Monte Carlo estimators of integrals. While the simplest approach relies on a homogeneous Poisson point process, more regularly spread point processes, such as scrambled low-discrepancy sequences or determinantal point processes, can yield Monte Carlo estimators with fast-decaying mean square error. Following the intuition that more regular configurations result in lower integration error, we introduce the repulsion operator, which reduces clustering by slightly pushing the points of a configuration away from each other. Our main theoretical result is that applying the repulsion operator to a homogeneous Poisson point process yields an unbiased Monte Carlo estimator with lower variance than under the original point process. On the computational side, the evaluation of our estimator is only quadratic in the number of integrand evaluations and can be easily parallelized without any communication across tasks. We illustrate our variance reduction result with numerical experiments and compare it to popular Monte Carlo methods. Finally, we numerically investigate a few open questions on the repulsion operator. In particular, the experiments suggest that the variance reduction also holds when the operator is applied to other motion-invariant point processes.
Stochastic inversion problems are typically encountered when it is wanted to quantify the uncertainty affecting the inputs of computer models. They consist in estimating input distributions from noisy, observable outputs, and such problems are increasingly examined in Bayesian contexts where the targeted inputs are affected by stochastic uncertainties. In this regard, a stochastic input can be qualified as meaningful if it explains most of the output uncertainty. While such inverse problems are characterized by identifiability conditions, constraints of "signal to noise", that can formalize this meaningfulness, should be accounted for within the definition of the model, prior to inference. This article investigates the possibility of forcing a solution to be meaningful in the context of parametric uncertainty quantification, through the tools of global sensitivity analysis and information theory (variance, entropy, Fisher information). Such forcings have mainly the nature of constraints placed on the input covariance, and can be made explicit by considering linear or linearizable models. Simulated experiments indicate that, when injected into the modeling process, these constraints can limit the influence of measurement or process noise on the estimation of the input distribution, and let hope for future extensions in a full non-linear framework, for example through the use of linear Gaussian mixtures.
In many signal processing applications, metadata may be advantageously used in conjunction with a high dimensional signal to produce a desired output. In the case of classical Sound Source Localization (SSL) algorithms, information from a high dimensional, multichannel audio signals received by many distributed microphones is combined with information describing acoustic properties of the scene, such as the microphones' coordinates in space, to estimate the position of a sound source. We introduce Dual Input Neural Networks (DI-NNs) as a simple and effective way to model these two data types in a neural network. We train and evaluate our proposed DI-NN on scenarios of varying difficulty and realism and compare it against an alternative architecture, a classical Least-Squares (LS) method as well as a classical Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (CRNN). Our results show that the DI-NN significantly outperforms the baselines, achieving a five times lower localization error than the LS method and two times lower than the CRNN in a test dataset of real recordings.
Estimating causal effects from observational network data is a significant but challenging problem. Existing works in causal inference for observational network data lack an analysis of the generalization bound, which can theoretically provide support for alleviating the complex confounding bias and practically guide the design of learning objectives in a principled manner. To fill this gap, we derive a generalization bound for causal effect estimation in network scenarios by exploiting 1) the reweighting schema based on joint propensity score and 2) the representation learning schema based on Integral Probability Metric (IPM). We provide two perspectives on the generalization bound in terms of reweighting and representation learning, respectively. Motivated by the analysis of the bound, we propose a weighting regression method based on the joint propensity score augmented with representation learning. Extensive experimental studies on two real-world networks with semi-synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.
Deep learning has emerged as an effective solution for addressing the challenges of short-term voltage stability assessment (STVSA) in power systems. However, existing deep learning-based STVSA approaches face limitations in adapting to topological changes, sample labeling, and handling small datasets. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a novel phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements-based STVSA method by using deep transfer learning. The method leverages the real-time dynamic information captured by PMUs to create an initial dataset. It employs temporal ensembling for sample labeling and utilizes least squares generative adversarial networks (LSGAN) for data augmentation, enabling effective deep learning on small-scale datasets. Additionally, the method enhances adaptability to topological changes by exploring connections between different faults. Experimental results on the IEEE 39-bus test system demonstrate that the proposed method improves model evaluation accuracy by approximately 20% through transfer learning, exhibiting strong adaptability to topological changes. Leveraging the self-attention mechanism of the Transformer model, this approach offers significant advantages over shallow learning methods and other deep learning-based approaches.
Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.
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